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2025-2026 ENSO


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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think 2013-2014 is definitely woth of inclusion as an analog...most notably for it's statospheric reflevtion events during  mid season.

It's an awful polar analog...agree there.

I assume you realize 25-26 and 13-14 are opposites with regard to QBO. Are you including that as part of the reason you said 13-14 is an awful polar analog?

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Just for reference - NAO was different. But globally its pretty similar. Blocking should show up at times, its just when? I'm assuming the super persistent warmth/high pressure by Japan means on balance the NAO is not predominantly favorable for Nor'easters in the dead of winter int he Northeast. But during the transitional periods (Nov/late Feb-late Mar) I am more optimistic for big systems by the NE than in recent years.

Screenshot-2025-10-13-6-29-05-PM.png

Screenshot-2025-10-13-6-29-16-PM.png

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