2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The real heart to the drought is over northern New England....couple that with a modest +NAO and maybe it’s finally my turn.

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

[brooklynwx99]

I can assure you, when we do get a good winter from NYC south, I doubt anyone will have actually forecasted it beforehand. including myself

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You are right about the smax. High sunspots and especially high geomag argue for +NAO as does the cold North Atlantic 

Yea, well don't forget the E QBO. This shouldn't be a super nova +NAO that is devoid of blocking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

IRI plume def. more aggressive with La Nina. I think they have finally caught onto to an event that will will fall just shy of official designation. I called -0.5 to -0.7 ONI peak back in July and it looks like dynamical guidance now peaks at -0.71, statistical -0.53 and mean of all guidance -0.61.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/07/la-neutral-enso-conditions-will.html

Will probably go onto to overcorrect a bit next month, too before tickling back later in the fall. Subsurface is quite stout, but I don't think we will have the trade clout to surface as much of that in region 3.4 as we did in 3 and 1.2.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

We need the trades colocated with the subsurface cold pool...we had that big time througout much of August, when we had the burst of intensification of La Nina due to the upwelling of the cold pool over the eastern half of ENSO. However, trades died down and shifted west in Septmeber. They look to pick up out east again next week and into October, but not as strongly as August. SOI has also been inching upwards. I think at the end of the day, the pedestrian coupling of the trades with the cold pool, owed at least in part to the diffuse PAC pressure dipole (Low west/high east) is what will have this La Nina struggling to be acknowledged by CPC in the record books. Will be very close.

The subsurface says game on...but the hemisphere isn't totally on board.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Maybe a hair stronger than last year-