2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx
 

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline.
 
For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51:

-22 rest of Sept

-22 during Oct

-6 during Nov

-1 during Dec

So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

[soadforecasterx]

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

I love the “battle-zone” that so many forecasters love to put much of the SE US in every winter lol.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

Actually there is a small nugget of truth to the B W area. At least for south of Boston areas, we do often watch Blizzard occurring …….. somewhere else. As always ……

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

This guy's Idol has to be JB. 

[soadforecasterx]

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

13-14 didn't have any KUs. Last year would have been decent had the pacific not created such a fast flowing pattern. That mid February storm (I think feb 9?) would have been good if it had just stalled. 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

[so_whats_happening]

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

Of course! Although if the background forcing is prohibitive enough it starts to become like those trick shot videos where they are shooting baskets off of buildings

[GaWx]

Was this one posted before? I get them all mixed up with their typically fictitious southern battle zones and NE blizzard watches and huge snowstorms and N Plains polar vortices and amazingly enough always warm/dry in the W where E US wx weenies conveniently don’t care:

 

https://www.powder.com/news/east-coast-blizzard-watch-winter

*Edit: I just noticed that this is the one posted yesterday that I even commented on lol. I told you guys I get these mixed up and this is proof!

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

A 2007-08 type disaster would be another example. I’m sure it’s due and Nina seasons make them more likely but that was pure pain for the I-80 corridor with the exception of 2/22/08 (surprise decent SWFE). I know you would do an Ironman in the nude for that winter again. 

07-08 is one of those rare winters that didn't follow the November/December la nina rule. We got a cold November/December, with a snowstorm on December 5. Instead of a cold and snowy winter, January-April was warm with very little snow.

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

The subsurface is very impressive also.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, rclab said:

Actually there is a small nugget of truth to the B W area. At least for south of Boston areas, we do often watch Blizzard occurring …….. somewhere else. As always ……

Hey, I'm north of Boston and have become a winter voyeur myself

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

I agree completely with this...with the added caveat that I could see a northern stream KU that wouldn't do much for the mid atl.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/9/2025 at 8:45 PM, raindancewx said:

The actual global pattern for June-August 2025 looks a lot like a blend of 2013, 2018, 2022, 2024 to me, with -2007 in as a confirming anti log (it had low heights south of Alaska as an example). The blend with -2007 also has a similar look to Sept 2025 so far in the US. The temp blend with 2007 supports the West getting pretty cold in Fall, then it spreads East, peaks in December, and retreats until February when it returns for the Plains. Pretty boiler plate. I don't fully buy it. But it does support some pretty cold periods in the Southwest, which is increasingly likely the longer the hurricane season stays dead (now looks likely until Sept 16). The four main years average out to a slightly inactive hurricane season, with cold showing locally in mid-Nov to mid-Jan (2013), mid Dec-mid Jan (2018-19), early and late in 2022-23 (Nov, Feb-Apr 7), and January 2025.

 

 

On 9/9/2025 at 10:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This composite looks like a lot of my preliminary stuff.

 

Extratropical Pacific, Polar and EMI composites.

 

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter. 

Nice consensus emerging-

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter. 

...

...

 

Is there a way to actually do that?   I've always just done it the hard way, but ultimately gave up when the thread's hundos pages deep... 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

[GaWx]

49 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

For all practical purposes, it’s already weak La Niña:

 The RONI equivalent daily is likely already well down into weak Niña range (subtract at least ~0.25C from the raw 3.4 SST anomaly based on the slowly reducing but still persistent RONI minus ONI)

 Below are some straight 3.4 anomalies (caution that CDAS has typically been too cold but sometimes CRW is slightly too warm): based on these four, alone, I’d think the raw daily anomaly is likely ~-0.4 to -0.5 meaning ~-0.7 for RONI equivalent:

 
 

 

 

 Buoys:

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For all practical purposes, it’s already weak La Niña:

 The RONI equivalent is likely already well down into weak Niña range (subtract at least ~0.25C from the raw 3.4 SST anomaly based on the slowly reducing but still persistent RONI minus ONI)

 Below are some straight 3.4 anomalies (caution that CDAS has typically been too cold but sometimes CRW is slightly too warm): based on these four, alone, I’d think the raw anomaly is likely ~-0.4 to -0.5 meaning ~-0.7 for RONI equivalent:

 
 

 

 

 Buoys:

Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.

[DarkSharkWX]

RONI should be <-0.5, global SSTA is near +0.5

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.

La nina by itself isn't always bad. Just as a deep -IOD isn't always bad by itself. But those two things in combination almost certainly spells a cooked winter.

If you have a la nina, you need a +IOD or near neutral IOD to have a chance. If you have a deep -IOD, you need an el nino or near ENSO neutral.

La nina and deep -IOD is just not going to work. Unless you're looking for a blowtorch winter and very little snow.

[bncho]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I'm hoping it stays ENSO neutral. That's probably our best chance for a decent winter. A la nina and deep -IOD combination almost certainly means a blowtorch winter and very low snow totals.

We're basically in a La Nina right now.