2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx
 

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline.
 
For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51:

-22 rest of Sept

-22 during Oct

-6 during Nov

-1 during Dec

So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

[soadforecasterx]

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

I love the “battle-zone” that so many forecasters love to put much of the SE US in every winter lol.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

Actually there is a small nugget of truth to the B W area. At least for south of Boston areas, we do often watch Blizzard occurring …….. somewhere else. As always ……

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

This guy's Idol has to be JB. 

[soadforecasterx]

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

13-14 didn't have any KUs. Last year would have been decent had the pacific not created such a fast flowing pattern. That mid February storm (I think feb 9?) would have been good if it had just stalled. 

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

[so_whats_happening]

Man a lot to catch up on but it surely has been fun watching the forecasts for MJO over the last week or so. Also just saw OISST just updated they have been doing upgrades so things have been delayed quite a bit, call me whatever but I have this feeling we bottomed out already for ONI numbers will have to see as we go into early October if we continue to see it flatline if not rise. I forget how to look the post up for this I made earlier in the thread but still liking the idea of this look as we go into winter. 

[BlizzardWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

But isn’t a KU a pretty random event that can happen in just about any winter if things happen to line up? In other words, isn’t there at least some KU potential every winter (I realize the probabilities vary each winter) because it’s random?

Of course! Although if the background forcing is prohibitive enough it starts to become like those trick shot videos where they are shooting baskets off of buildings