2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

So far we aren’t and haven’t been seeing recurving typhoons. They are moving straight west into Asia like this current one is going to do….causing the upcoming warm pattern

Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx
 

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

[snowman19]

[snowman19]

I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.

I think the background states going into winter are starting to get set…..solar max (but descending slowly), high geomag, La Niña, -PDO, -IOD, -PMM, -QBO, below normal Atlantic ACE (looking likely), +AMO (*possibly* the very beginning of a -AMO flip with the cold pool in the North Atlantic?), non-volcanic stratosphere

[GaWx]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Thanks. Indeed, the chances of exceeding 100 total continue to decline.
 
For reference, the 1991-2020 average from now to the end is 51:

-22 rest of Sept

-22 during Oct

-6 during Nov

-1 during Dec

So, to reach 100, 2025 would need to be ~10 above the 1991-2020 avg, a tall but not near impossible order. But it being a weak La Nina and recent seasons being pretty heavily backloaded help those chances to an extent. What Gabrielle does or doesn’t do will be a pretty significant part of the mix.

[soadforecasterx]

 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

I love the “battle-zone” that so many forecasters love to put much of the SE US in every winter lol.

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

[rclab]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

"blizzard watch" is all I needed to see lol

Actually there is a small nugget of truth to the B W area. At least for south of Boston areas, we do often watch Blizzard occurring …….. somewhere else. As always ……

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, soadforecasterx said:

 

This guy's Idol has to be JB. 

[soadforecasterx]

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

[anthonymm]

1 minute ago, soadforecasterx said:

I can see the logic of maybe a 13/14 type pattern. I just don't see KU potential in the cards for the east coast this year. If anything I can see a repeat of last year of cold but dry. 

13-14 didn't have any KUs. Last year would have been decent had the pacific not created such a fast flowing pattern. That mid February storm (I think feb 9?) would have been good if it had just stalled.