2025-2026 ENSO

[PhiEaglesfan712]

If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: 

Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There are none. That’s why I don’t like using them

Okay....if that is the case, it would seem a warmer version of 2013-2014 adjusted for CC is a perfectly a viable option.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If we go la nina, I still like 1949-50 as the best analog. I'll even adjust it for climate: 

Sorry in advance if we get a torch January and a low snow winter.

I highly doubt a PNA that biased towards negtive, but we'll see. Possible-

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Atlantic SSTs are still near the warmest on record. So this lull is more about the warmer waters further north across the oceans causing too much tropical stability.

The Gulf SSTs are near the warmest on record also. So any system can get into the Gulf would have plenty of fuel.

I am hoping that that area can catch a break from all the damage that has occurred the last decade. But the local residents can’t let their guard down. Since much of the activity has been backloaded into the late season there.

 

 

Maybe in the era of climate change we need to redefine the AMO.  The cycle is past due to switch and maybe there are other things that should define it besides SST? Especially with climate change, it's likely those waters will always be that warm (unless the ice at the poles melts even more quickly and that should cool down the SST.)

 

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That winter was also raging positive QBO

Did 2014-2015 also have that?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, don't get me wrong....I'm not trying to go JB here and start hypng to hell.....but I feel as though seasonal forecasting has really become polarized, and lacks nuance. On the one hand, we have the lust for clicks on social media driving the hype train, and on the other hand we have this group of  enthusiasts and pros that have adopted this insipid style of forecating whereas one should forecast warmth first, and think later, if at all. They are both equally as ill advised IMHO, though obviously the latter will verify better over the long run simply due to CC, rather than any actual skill. And I am not grouping people like Chris into that, either.....there are those who forecast warmth that present a great deal of data in support of said outcome and forth in a great deal of effort. However, there are some who have become "lazy", or unimaginative, so to speak. Not directed at anyone specifically...more of a general observation.

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe in the era of climate change we need to redefine the AMO.  The cycle is past due to switch and maybe there are other things that should define it besides SST? Especially with climate change, it's likely those waters will always be that warm (unless the ice at the poles melts even more quickly and that should cool down the SST.)

 

Maybe we need a RAMO (relative AMO) in addition to classic AMO sort of like we now have RONI in addition to the classic ONI.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Maybe we need a RAMO (relative AMO) in addition to classic AMO sort of like we now have RONI in addition to the classic ONI.

I like this Larry, we have one for ENSO so we should also have one for AMO.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I'm hoping we stay ENSO neutral. Second-year ENSO neutrals tend to do well. A warmer version of 1993-94 and 2013-14 could be possible.

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don, can you do me a favor and let me know how many analogs you have that are a 100% match?

Thanks.

I'm not expecting perfection. But I think boundary conditions, particularly SSTAs are probably the most important variables. The area of warmest Winter 2013-14 North Pacific SSTAs are not a great match with what currently exists. At present, Winter 2020-21 is a better North Pacific Match (again not perfect, but better).

[PhiEaglesfan712]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not expecting perfection. But I think boundary conditions, particularly SSTAs are probably the most important variables. The area of warmest Winter 2013-14 North Pacific SSTAs are not a great match with what currently exists. At present, Winter 2020-21 is a better North Pacific Match (again not perfect, but better).

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

I haven't looked closely at all the details at this time given how much can change. It is a better North Pacific match than 2013-14, at least right now. It wasn't a bad winter, either. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm not expecting perfection. But I think boundary conditions, particularly SSTAs are probably the most important variables. The area of warmest Winter 2013-14 North Pacific SSTAs are not a great match with what currently exists. At present, Winter 2020-21 is a better North Pacific Match (again not perfect, but better).

What I mean is there is more than one avenue to a similar sensible weather outcome......ie, just because SST patterns are differetn doesn't necessarily preclude an analog seasons from ultimately being a valid analog in terms of sensible weather. All this proves is that 2013-2014 is not an ostenisbly viable N PAC analog, however, that does not necessarily mean that the coming season won't have some similarities. I think there is plenty of support for poleward ridging, regardless.

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2020-21 is my next best analog after 1949-50. I like it because it's more recent, but I the one thing working against it is that 20-21 was near a solar min, and we're now near a solar max.

Solar max and QBO east seasons aren't exactly void of blocking potential, either.

 

Research by Gray et al, 2004 elaborates on the complex relationship between the solar cycle and the QBO phase.

Integrating Solar & QBO Research for a Comprehensive Polar Forecast

The aforementioned Holton-Tan relationship, which dictates that an easterly QBO is correlated with both a greater incidence of, and an earlier development of SSW, becomes more complicated when considering the solar cycle. In some cases, when the QBO and solar cycle are in conflict, they can either over ride one another or even cancel each other out (Gray et al 2004). Here is a list of combinations and the theorized relationships for clarity.

Solar min/W QBO: This is entirely consistent with the Holton-Tan relationship in that the westerly QBO essentially "wins". The PV is likely to be stronger than average until the final warming in spring.

Solar max/W QBO: In this case, the Holton-Tan relationship is applicable early on in the season, as major warmings are unlikely. However, the Holton-Tan relationship reverses mid winter and the latter portion of the season from February onward is susceptible to warmings and major PV disruption. Winter 2024-2025 was a textbook example of this.

Solar Min/E QBO: There are no inconsistencies here, as the entire season is more prone to polar vortex disruptions and SSW as per the Holton-Tan relationship.

Solar Max/E QBO (2025-2026): The Holton-Tan relationship applies early on given that PV disruptions are likely in December, before the relationship reverses and they are less likely later in the season

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What I mean is there is more than one avenue to a similar sensible weather outcome......ie, just because SST patterns are differetn doesn't necessarily preclude an analog seasons from ultimately being a valid analog in terms of sensible weather. All this proves is that 2013-2014 is not an ostenisbly viable N PAC analog, however, that does not necessarily mean that the coming season won't have some similarities. I think there is plenty of support for poleward ridging, regardless.

I agree. I don't think it's non-viable. I just don't think it's the slam dunk some are making it out to be. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I don't think it's non-viable. I just don't think it's the slam dunk some are making it out to be. 

Okay, I absolutely agree with this. The is in sync with my observation about how dialectical seasonal forecasting has become.

[anthonymm]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I highly doubt a PNA that biased towards negtive, but we'll see. Possible-

I see 22-23 as a good analog.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

I see 22-23 as a good analog.

As do I, but again....don't expect that pervasive of an RNA.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Still looks on target for a late month and October flip (Chuck’s -PDO/-ENSO link for October) to a warmer than normal pattern, also continued very dry. Once we get into October, if the dryness continues and it looks like it will, we will be approaching serious drought conditions

Long range 12z GEFS at 384 has a pretty strong ridge setting up for the first few days of October

NAO is also turning negative this September after being positive every month since last January.. this same thing happened last year, where the +AO/+NAO that was present all Summer long broke in September. 

[bluewave]

We haven’t had any cold and snowy winter analogs in the last 10 years which matched anything prior to the 2015-2016 global temperature jump. So that would be the main reason that 2013-2014 analog would be unlikely in this much warmer climate. 

We saw the same effect following the smaller jump in global temperatures in 1997-1998. Since we are yet too see a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996 repeat in the years which followed.

Same goes for a replay of the 1976-1977 and 1978-1979 winters after a smaller global temperature rise in 1983. 

So each new global temperature jump has prevented earlier analogs from before the jumps from occurring again. 

We would need a major volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to have a shot at one of these winters again.

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay....if that is the case, it would seem a warmer version of 2013-2014 adjusted for CC is a perfectly a viable option.

Sounds good to me. A winter closer to 20th coldest instead of top 5 and with snowfall well over 100". Book it!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We saw the same effect following the smaller jump in global temperatures in 1997-1998. Since we are yet too see a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996 repeat in the years which followed.

We had a repeat in 2002-03 through 2004-05. 02-03 was a blockbuster winter, 03-04 was cold, and 04-05 had above average snowfall.

[anthonymm]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We haven’t had any winter analogs in the last 10 years which matched anything prior to the 2015-2016 global temperature jump. So that would be the main reason that 2013-2014 analog would be unlikely in this much warmer climate. 

We saw the same effect following the smaller jump in global temperatures in 1997-1998. Since we are yet too see a 1993-1994 or 1995-1996 repeat in the years which followed.

Same goes for a replay of the 1976-1977 and 1978-1979 winters after a smaller global temperature rise in 1983. 

So each new global temperature jump has prevented earlier analogs from before the jumps from occurring again. 

 

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 minute ago, anthonymm said:

Are you seeing 2022-2023 as a possible worst case scenario for the upcoming winter? I thought pulling such a snowless winter would be impossible but it seems we are in a record ultra low snow multiyear pattern...

Yeah, a 1949-50 or 2022-23 snowless type season is not out of the question. Some places could even set a new record low for the least snowy 10-year period in 2025-26. For example, PHL would break the record (set from 1922-23 through 1931-32) with less than 13.4 inches of snow this upcoming winter.