2025-2026 ENSO

[anthonymm]

16 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

[snowman19]

42 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would say that considering that -EPO and some +PNA is favored. definitely doesn't look like a disaster

I can see the -EPO, the +PNA not so much, especially since it’s a 2nd year -ENSO/-PDO. Not saying no +PNA but IMO it will be limited 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, anthonymm said:

+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion 

A combination of both is ideal.

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The STJ is very likely to be muted this coming winter. -PMM/-ENSO weakens the STJ

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

[csnavywx]

4 hours ago, FPizz said:

Extent looks a little different, pretty much running the 2010s and 2020s average.

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

[csnavywx]

 

The Southwest Monsoon has been on fire this year with stronger than usual upwelling in the Arabian Sea. Combined with recent trades, we actually have a nice incipient -IOD pattern setting up, which should help boost our Nina into the winter months.

This winter looking interesting from the standpoint of the Pacific pattern on the seasonals:

 

Looks encouraging for increased cross-polar flow, PV favoring our hemisphere and a typical Nina gradient-pattern.

 

This MSLP pattern is also pretty favorable for a follow-on reduction of the trades, which may line up nicely when the developing -IOD terminates:

 

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/16/16/1520-0442_2003_016_2668_tsfmit_2.0.co_2.xml

 

 

[MJO812]

28 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

No one knows what this winter will be in August. Long range forecasts are crapshoots and have been wrong in the past several years.

Just like every winter forecast i have seen so far is very cold and snowy for the east with the weak la Nina. All nonsense this far out.

It takes skill but grain of salt

[snowman19]

Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.

You can’t be that specific on snowfall this far out….or even close in lol There are a few things that look like good bets going into winter. @Bluewave usually uses MJO wave intensity come October, which I think seems to be a rather decent indicator. So far, the MJO has been following the tendency of the last several years of favoring phases 5-6-7

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, csnavywx said:

Yep. Pretty unremarkable melt season weather-wise. Area and volume significantly lower, but not exceptional or anything. Beaufort took quite a long time to melt out this year, closer to 2013's melt season, and there's still an intact arm into the ESS -- whereas the CAB itself is actually record low on area. The easy to melt stuff is long gone and a transition towards Atlantic-side dominance may yet take some more time.

Yea it was interesting to watch the Beaufort region this year not many years have remained intact in this region. If we did not have such an abysmal growth season we could have managed a rare positive uptick within the downtrend. Will be interesting to see when we officially hit the floor and just how the beginning of the season sets up.

We did just get a massive warm region showing up over the last couple months in the Atlantic near northern Europe that im sure will play a role in how this year goes for growth.