2025-2026 ENSO

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Even if 22-23 is a good analog winter, that’s only one analog, which has little statistical weight on its own.

 

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Assuming it is, they're never exactly the same and small variations can make a big difference with the final results.

There's the pro version and weenie version right there! Lol

[brooklynwx99]

4 hours ago, anthonymm said:

So is 22-23 a good analog year? If so coastal mid atl-sne is screwed.

it isn't. last year is actually the best analog that i've found

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It’s not rotten luck. The Pacific Jet oriented in a way and strength that systematically destroyed our chances especially south of I-90 to PHL. Historically when it’s been cold enough in NYC it’s found a way to snow because there would be a PNA ridge that would stick around long enough or NAO blocking to slow the pattern down. Now the Pacific Jet knocks it all down like bowling pins and storms either can’t amplify in time or amplify too much. 

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I suppose you can say that the Pacific jet helped the for parts of the MA and South then, which saw snowfall far above normal last winter

The faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet helped to suppress the weaker Southern Stream during the split flow intervals last winter. So it prevented those storms from coming further north. This has been the same theme since 2018-2019 with Great Lakes cutters, I-78 to I-84 huggers, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

But if there's something encouraging about the last 2 years, it's that Baltimore and DC received snow. We didn't see that much from 16-17 to 22-23. 

Average snowfall 16-17 to 22-23

BWI: 9.1 inches

DCA: 6.8 inches

Average snowfall 23-24 and 24-25

BWI: 12 inches

DCA: 11.5 inches

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 22-25. It's doing exactly what that +AO roll-forward showed, in the exact location, albeit a few months early. I thought this was impressive because the Polar Vortex was 2000 miles from where the base +AO period had negative H5. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

But if there's something encouraging about the last 2 years, it's that Baltimore and DC received snow. We didn't see that much from 16-17 to 22-23. 

Average snowfall 16-17 to 22-23

BWI: 9.1 inches

DCA: 6.8 inches

Average snowfall 23-24 and 24-25

BWI: 12 inches

DCA: 11.5 inches

 

18-19 and 20-21 through 22-23 -NAO's were really not getting cold at all. The last 2 Winters, there has been cold under -NAO patterns in the east, and the Mid Atlantic has done better in those times. 

[so_whats_happening]

Nice 90 day loop

[snowman19]

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice 90 day loop

Now if we could only get the western pacific to stop boiling we might have a 2010s style winter!

[snowman19]

Not much change at all in the Atlantic the last month @Stormchaserchuck1….

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. 

Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. 

Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. 

All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 60-62% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Nice 90 day loop

Pretty cool to watch the N. Pacific warm pool shift north with the Summer pattern. It's aligned right now with the Hadley/mid-latitude Cell. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter

Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month

my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO

overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore

 

temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

[frd]

57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO.

There are some signals that December can be a cold month here due to a weaker early season PV, displaced SE PV,  and as you mentioned, a  -QBO. 

[snowman19]

Not really a surprise but the tropical Atlantic looks to become a total snooze fest for the next 2+ weeks

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Not really a surprise but the tropical Atlantic looks to become a total snooze fest for the next 2+ weeks

If that happens, then any hope for an active Atlantic hurricane season is over. The next 2+ weeks puts us into September, which is the heart of the hurricane season. If it's a snooze fest, then there's a good chance Erin was a one-off (like Andrew in 1992).

[mitchnick]

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter

Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month

my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO

overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore

 

temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

That 500mb anomaly map looks like the latest Euro seasonal. 

[mitchnick]

16 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not much change at all in the Atlantic the last month @Stormchaserchuck1….

Cyclonicwx.com offers a 30 day change map fwiw.

[snowman19]

^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. 
Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. 
Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. 
All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 60-62% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter. 

Yea, it’s been a +NAO SSTA alignment for months now

[snowman19]

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If that happens, then any hope for an active Atlantic hurricane season is over. The next 2+ weeks puts us into September, which is the heart of the hurricane season. If it's a snooze fest, then there's a good chance Erin was a one-off (like Andrew in 1992).

1. Erin will end up with ~33-4 ACE, which you didn’t forecast. Currently, 2024 has sharply risen to 15th of the last 75 years and it will rise several positions from there before Erin winds down, when total ACE should be ~36-38:

 

2. It does appear quiet ~8/24-9/7 on the ensembles/Euro Weeklies and there could easily be below normal ACE through that period. But even if so and allowing for ~5 added ACE by 9/7, ACE would still be near normal (in the 40s).

3. The Euro Weeklies have then been showing an increase in activity (likely MJO related), especially during 9/15-21:

9/8-14: 10-11 ACE
9/15-21: 13-15 ACE

 If these verify well, ACE would then be in the 60s.

4. The tendency in recent years, especially during cold ENSO has been for a more active late Sept through Nov. 2024 had its most active period late Sept-mid Oct. If that occurs again, 2025 would end up as another active season.

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

You have to take a closer look at the seasons. This year looks more like 2007, a year that was (at this point in the season) skewed by one storm (Dean). It would later be skewed by a 2nd storm (Felix) later in August, but after that, from September on, we didn't get much more than a bunch of minor storms.

Years like 2012, 2020, and 2021 were further along in the alphabet, and the signs were there for an active season. I'm really surprised the ACE values were that low for those years. I just don't see that this year. It looks more like 1992 (one-storm wonder) or 2007 (two-storm wonder).

The next 2-4 weeks will tell us a lot more. If it isn't active, then you need to let it go. The season isn't suddenly going to get active in October and November. As they say, the tiger doesn't change stripes.