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2025-2026 ENSO


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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:
 

The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast.

image.thumb.png.81310ca2c68c5a6d600a7e298fbf8db5.png

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39 minutes ago, GaWx said:
That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

Ever since Fukushima its been warm, odd.  Just kidding.  

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 

I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes.

compday.1VKLUlYL4u.gif

compday.SKqqYH09Mu.gif

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9 hours ago, mitchnick said:
There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 


No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:


No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part

I didn't make a forecast like you did. Lol You always speak in absolutes. That's the problem. 

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6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes.

compday.1VKLUlYL4u.gif

compday.SKqqYH09Mu.gif

I agreed the tropical activity was likely the cause. But to say with absolute certainty something will happen is what I question. And at what level of tropical activity is the tipping point? And what about the changing patterns? That's my point...it's not black or white.

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14 hours ago, GaWx said:

That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.

Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter.

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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

I will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season.

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