snowman19 Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:00 AM The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND: The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Yeah, the record SST warmth near the Maritime Continent has been leading to significantly more -IODs over time than we used to get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again.Tropical cyclones passing through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago Just now, snowman19 said: Tropical cyclones passing through the area Yeah, that's what's been missing for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 27 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Sst changes in the western Pacific starting to raise the PDO some again. That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago 39 minutes ago, GaWx said: That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3. If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 19 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth Ever since Fukushima its been warm, odd. Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth There's no guarantee of that. That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: There's no guarantee of that. That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 9 hours ago, mitchnick said: There's no guarantee of that. That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago @DonSutherland1 Looks like the anticipated shift to a -AAM regime has just started 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: No it’s not. If you actually knew what you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part I didn't make a forecast like you did. Lol You always speak in absolutes. That's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes. I agreed the tropical activity was likely the cause. But to say with absolute certainty something will happen is what I question. And at what level of tropical activity is the tipping point? And what about the changing patterns? That's my point...it's not black or white. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 29 minutes ago Author Share Posted 29 minutes ago 14 hours ago, GaWx said: That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3. Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 27 minutes ago Author Share Posted 27 minutes ago 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth I will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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