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2025-2026 ENSO


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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The EURO seasonal is showing classic La Niña/-IOD low frequency forcing over the eastern IO and Maritime Continent for OND:
 

The IOD has been declining in recent months and has already turned negative. It seems that things are on track for the forecast.

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39 minutes ago, GaWx said:
That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

Ever since Fukushima its been warm, odd.  Just kidding.  

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:


If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depth

There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 

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2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 

I mean there is a lot of warmth with depth that has yet to be mixed. We do need much more in the way of tropical/ synoptic activity to really overhaul this region which will take time. There is definitely a noticeable shift trying to take place but the pattern is still very much entrenched across the region. As much as I want it to change it still needs time to make these changes.

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There's no guarantee of that.  That's pure wishcasting on your part. There's a whole lot that goes into ssta. 

No it’s not genius. If you actually knew wtf you were talking about you’d realize that. The wishcasting is on your part
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