2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

I was able to find one relationship between La Ninas and ACE going back to 1950.  Any Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160 ACE or higher like last year tended to have a +PNA December.
Now I am not sure if there is any type of causal relationship involved. Could just be a marker. What I mean by this is that the high ACE and +PNA December are part of the same underlying process.
It also worked out that the October MJO indicator also was reliable  in 2017, 2020, and 2024. So the MJO is also part of the same underlying process at least in more recent years. Those years featured a MJO 5 above +2.70 in October before the December strong +PNA La Ninas mismatch.
Atlantic hurricane season ACE above 160 and December +PNA during La Ninas
2005….245 ACE…..+1.38 …..December PNA
1995……227………….+0.92
2017……224…………..+0.89…..October MJO 5….+3.35
1950……211……………+0.02
1998……181……………-0.09
2020…..180…………..+1.58…..October MJO 5…..+2.81
1999……176………….+0.21
2010…..165…………..-1.78
2024…..161………….+1.70….October MJO 5…….+2.76
 

Interesting find. JB tries tying it into the NAO….high Atlantic ACE/-ENSO = -NAO winter. I have found zero convincing evidence in that regard. The PNA connection you found is interesting though

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting find. JB tries tying it into the NAO….high Atlantic ACE/-ENSO = -NAO winter. I have found zero convincing evidence in that regard. The PNA connection you found is interesting though

I can see some -AO and -NAO overlap also. Like last 24-25 winter we had the -5 -AO drop in mid-February with the record snows in Montreal and Toronto. Similar strong drops in 20-21 and especially March 2018. The

We all know about 2010 and the -AO -NAO intervals in 05-06 and of course 95-96.

But again not sure about a one to one casual relationship as these features could be markers for another underling process. Perhaps related to the underlying forcing and Rossby wave breaking. 

[snowman19]

I can see some -AO and -NAO overlap also. Like last 24-25 winter we had the -5 -AO drop in mid-February with the record snows in Montreal and Toronto. Similar strong drops in 20-21 and especially March 2018. The
We all know about 2010 and the -AO -NAO intervals in 05-06 and of course 95-96.
But again not sure about a one to one casual relationship as these features could be markers for another underling process. Perhaps related to the underlying forcing and Rossby wave breaking. 

Back in 2011, JB used the very active Atlantic hurricane season (19 named storms) as part of the reason for going with the cold/snowy eastern winter forecast he had….he also used the -QBO as his basis. We all know how that winter turned out. That winter was particularly painful for him as he kept insisting that arctic cold and snowstorms were right around the corner, from November through mid-February. It wasn’t until after Valentine’s Day that he finally admitted defeat and said his winter forecast was going to be a big bust

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Back in 2011, JB used the very active Atlantic hurricane season (19 named storms) as part of the reason for going with the cold/snowy eastern winter forecast he had….he also used the -QBO as his basis. We all know how that winter turned out. That winter was particularly painful for him as he kept insisting that arctic cold and snowstorms were right around the corner, from November through mid-February. It wasn’t until after Valentine’s Day that he finally admitted defeat and said his winter forecast was going to be a big bust

I think that the 09-10 and 10-11 winters were so phenomenal, that we just couldn’t sustain that level of historic snowfall production for 3 seasons in a row. 

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think that the 09-10 and 10-11 winters were so phenomenal, that we just couldn’t sustain that level of historic snowfall production for 3 seasons in a row. 

and yet we only had a two year break and were back at it for 13-14 and 14-15

We probably won't see 4 seasons like that again in our lifetime.

[snowman19]

14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-5c now showing up in the TAO/Triton subsurface. That is "Moderate-Nina like". 

Sure is and the new model runs keep getting stronger with the negative IOD this fall

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/1949339395791704153?
The CFS has been VERY consistent on a +PNA pattern dumping one below normal air mass after the other into the Eastern US right through the 4th week of August. By my estimation 85% of August is below normal in my forecast area on this model. This has some support from the MJO rotating through phases 7,8,1 as it would stabilize the +PNA pattern giving it some staying power. Seems plausible to me. #wxtwitter #wxX

[snowman19]

https://x.com/MeteoMark/status/1949339395791704153?
The CFS has been VERY consistent on a +PNA pattern dumping one below normal air mass after the other into the Eastern US right through the 4th week of August. By my estimation 85% of August is below normal in my forecast area on this model. This has some support from the MJO rotating through phases 7,8,1 as it would stabilize the +PNA pattern giving it some staying power. Seems plausible to me. #wxtwitter #wxX

Don’t ever quote Mark Margavage on here lol

[michsnowfreak]

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

most of the dustbowl winters were horrible, especially 1931-32, but didn't you get a lot of snow and cold in 1933-34?

 

1931-32 remains the 2nd warmest winter on record (behind 1881-82). It was virtually winter less until a Feb 4th snowstorm. Grass was green with dandelions in January. 1933-34 was a good winter, though snowfall was just barely above avg. Essentially an avg snow season. Feb 1934 saw brutal cold but much like the cold of Feb 1899 it was met with suppression so while areas of the Mid-Atlantic were buried in snow we were cold and dry. 1935-36 was a very cold white winter but snowfall was a bit below avg. Then 1936-37 is the least snowy winter on record. The snowiest winter of the 1930s was the first one (1929-30).

[KakashiHatake2000]

oh sorry i apologize snowman19 my bad but i copied and pasted the text from the post since it didnt embed on here but i can see why lots of controversial stuff i wont go into the details but i just posted it because it was weather related

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Sure is and the new model runs keep getting stronger with the negative IOD this fall

You think that will enhance MJO Phases 4-5-6 in the Wintertime? 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

La Nina is developing

At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. 

Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

July will be the 10th consecutive month with +SOI. 

We did 31 straight +SOI months 2020-early 2023. The decadal La Nina state is holding, through the SOI. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice job @PhiEaglesfan712 @GaWx for being bullish on La Nina prospects this year. 

[GaWx]

18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice job @PhiEaglesfan712 @GaWx for being bullish on La Nina prospects this year. 

 Thanks, Chuck. I have for quite awhile been very bullish for a RONI based La Niña, which I think is more telling than ONI. My latest prediction for ONI though is still at -0.4. Also, it will be interesting to see how low the MEI gets.

 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

La Nina is developing

At the very least, this should mean a warm Fall. 

Increased chances for -PNA this Winter if that strong cold pool maintains (subsurface has more flux than surface SSTs. It could wane in the coming months. It did last year.)

 Consistent with your image, the OHC keeps plunging:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Chuck. I have for quite awhile been very bullish for a RONI based La Niña, which I think is more telling than ONI. My latest prediction for ONI though is still at -0.4. Also, it will be interesting to see how low the MEI gets.

I remember doubting you when the subsurface was so warm in the Spring. You held to model biases/etc. and it ended up being a nice call. PhillyEaglesfan was also very adamant last year with the -PDO being so strong and us going into a La Nina for this year. 

[KakashiHatake2000]

i guess this will still be a weak la nina isnt it developing earlier than expected i thought it was supposed to develop in august sometime its sort of getting close to august

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Don’t ever quote Mark Margavage on here lol

is he a JB acolyte?

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

1931-32 remains the 2nd warmest winter on record (behind 1881-82). It was virtually winter less until a Feb 4th snowstorm. Grass was green with dandelions in January. 1933-34 was a good winter, though snowfall was just barely above avg. Essentially an avg snow season. Feb 1934 saw brutal cold but much like the cold of Feb 1899 it was met with suppression so while areas of the Mid-Atlantic were buried in snow we were cold and dry. 1935-36 was a very cold white winter but snowfall was a bit below avg. Then 1936-37 is the least snowy winter on record. The snowiest winter of the 1930s was the first one (1929-30).

the 1930s really were wild and extreme, thats a great comparison 1933-34 to 1898-99, both were el ninos weren't they?

 

[GaWx]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1930s really were wild and extreme, thats a great comparison 1933-34 to 1898-99, both were el ninos weren't they?

 

1933-4, with the very cold Feb, was moderate La Niña. 1898-9 was cold neutral and had the historic Feb cold.

Edit: Both gave rare winter storms here in SAV in mid Feb!

[LibertyBell]

Just now, GaWx said:

1933-4 was moderate La Niña. 1898-9 was cold neutral and had the historic Feb cold.

wow such a historically cold February in a moderate la nina in 1933-34? Thats one thing I remember about the first part of the 20th century, the la ninas used to be much colder and much snowier.  Thats why 1995-96 and 2010-11 were much more like them than any recent la ninas.

 

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow such a historically cold February in a moderate la nina in 1933-34? Thats one thing I remember about the first part of the 20th century, the la ninas used to be much colder and much snowier.  Thats why 1995-96 and 2010-11 were much more like them than any recent la ninas.

 

La Nina’s are strange in that although Febs average (I believe) the warmest anomalies of DJF, sometimes the Febs have had an intense cold plunge.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strongest correlation with the North Pacific High is January

I guess the lag from Pacific to the east coast makes it seem like the most impacted month is February. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

East Coast coastal lows most correlated in February, big difference in coastal lows El Nino vs La Nina though.. that's why I don't think unideal winter tracks during the La Nina decadal state of late is that big of a deal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nice job @PhiEaglesfan712 @GaWx for being bullish on La Nina prospects this year. 

If you mean official La Niña, I think it's insane to be confident of that right now. Simply ONI peak, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Thanks, Chuck. I have for quite awhile been very bullish for a RONI based La Niña, which I think is more telling than ONI. My latest prediction for ONI though is still at -0.4. Also, it will be interesting to see how low the MEI gets.

 

Okay...that was a no-brainer IMO. My guess on ONI right now is -0.5 to -0.7.

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay...that was a no-brainer IMO. My guess on ONI right now is -0.5 to -0.7.

I adjust with the model consensus, with each model adjusted for what I perceive to be its bias. My latest prediction of a -0.4 ONI low was based on July runs. I’ll re-examine in August.

[FPizz]

15 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Interesting find. JB tries tying it into the NAO….high Atlantic ACE/-ENSO = -NAO winter. I have found zero convincing evidence in that regard. The PNA connection you found is interesting though

Obsessed with him. You would think he posted here or something by the amount of times you bring him up.  His x posts get like 3 likes and zero replies.  He's pretty much irrelevant,  except to you

[Stormchaserchuck1]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you mean official La Niña, I think it's insane to be confident of that right now. Simply ONI peak, sure.

Subsurface is approaching -6c right now.. if that's normally 65F water, right now it's 55F. That's raw, not adjusted for global warming and everything.. I do think that it really can't go much lower than this given how warm everything is, without it being some anomaly. And the subsurface does fluctuate more than the surface (Kelvin/Rossby waves)

It's still July.. if Aug comes in <-0.5 ONI, it has a good chance of making it 5 straight months.. even Sept would have to carry only through January for an official Nina. Tropical tidbits currently has Nino 3.4 at -0.6c, but I know CPC is much warmer.. looks like they are -0.1 to -0.2