2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the Atlantic warming is more a function of the lighter winds, higher pressures, and cloud reductions rather than the usual old AMO. Much of was once believed to be the -AMO was actually a result of volcanic aerosols cooling the SSTs below. So my guess is that the Atlantic SSTs will remain very warm if and until we see a return to major volcanic activity like we had hundreds to thousands of years ago.

Chris, But the Atlantic anomalies overall have cooled significantly rather than warmed vs 2024.

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chris, But the Atlantic anomalies overall has cooled significantly rather than warmed vs 2024.

Well 2023 and 2024 were the warmest SSTs on record for the Atlantic Basin. This past winter saw very strong winds across the basin cooling things down from those peak levels. So while we are currently back to 3rd warmest, the SSTs are significantly above the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages. 

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well 2023 and 2024 were the warmest SSTs on record for the Atlantic Basin. This past winter saw very strong winds across the basin cooling things down from those peak levels. So while we are currently back to 3rd warmest, the SSTs are significantly above the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages. 

when do you think the next -AMO will begin?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

AM 2025 MEI: -0.4

Using the MEI, 2012-13 is the best analog:

2012

-1.1

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

2025

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

 

 

 

[snowman19]

Yeah. Even though the subsurface in the Nino regions is warm neutral, the WPAC warm pool is the main contributor to the RONI La Nina background pattern. So looks like a continuation of the WPAC being the main driver rather than the ENSO regions. 

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

To each their own just was the first interruption I have seen since the previous Nino. The VP is weakened slightly over Maritime but still in place, though there is weak VP anoms over much of the pacific the last couple months so not sure we get a simple ENSO depiction. Like I have mentioned I could see a warm neutral scenario play out via numbers but we still will have flares of negative ENSO show up just like we had last year with a weak negative ENSO showing up with Nino flares.

No, I agree with you.

I was just being an ass, but truth be told, tell me that this......

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah. Even though the subsurface in the Nino regions is warm neutral, the WPAC warm pool is the main contributor to the RONI La Nina background pattern. So looks like a continuation of the WPAC being the main driver rather than the ENSO regions. 

isn't this in longer and more detailed verbiage....

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Diminishing trades used to be a sign that La Nina was relenting, but in this new, warmer climate, we will end up seeing cool ENSO, anyway".

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

AM 2025 MEI: -0.4

Using the MEI, 2012-13 is the best analog:

2012

-1.1

-0.7

-0.6

-0.4

-0.3

2025

-1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

 

 

 

Great back-loaded winter in 2012-2013, but I'm sure that its an impossible feat in the new, warmer climate.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Well 2023 and 2024 were the warmest SSTs on record for the Atlantic Basin. This past winter saw very strong winds across the basin cooling things down from those peak levels. So while we are currently back to 3rd warmest, the SSTs are significantly above the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages. 

May be that will be the -AMO in this new climate we are in....never know....

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

D’Aleo thinks the +AMO dominated regime may be ending within the next couple of years based on the big cooling of much of the Atlantic over the last 12 months fwiw.

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that and the PDO will flip around the turn of the decade....I know Chris disagrees, but we will know within a few years. My guess is the debate will never end...certain folks will find a way to dovetail what ever happens into their own conceptualization of CC.

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO

@40/70 Benchmark

“Potential Link between PDO and Solar Cycles:
Some studies suggest a possible connection between the PDO and solar activity on decadal timescales.
The 11-year solar cycle may modulate the PDO, influencing its effect on atmospheric circulation.
Research suggests that the PDO phase can amplify or dampen the atmospheric response to solar variability.
For example, a study found that the intensification of the polar vortex during solar maximum conditions is significantly stronger in the negative phase of the PDO.”

[snowman19]

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I saw a theory a few years back that the PDO was tied to the solar/geomag cycles, that’s obviously a bunk theory….we are starting to descend off a solar/geomag max peak and it’s made no difference in the PDO

Never heard of that...

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like the hurricane season forecasts are going with La Niña analogs:
 

Even if we did warm ENSO at all for next winter, it would make no sense to incorporate warm ENSO analogs for this summer and fall.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

It’s the same old PAC background state we’ve been in for years now. Wash, rinse, repeat. Every time we think it’s about to change, it doesn’t. The persistence has been nothing short of astounding

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. 

But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño.

The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons.

But instead  the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. 

So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. 

So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. 

But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño.

The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons.

But instead  the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. 

So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. 

So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

 

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

This past winter was trying to put  together the semblance of a +PDO 500mb pattern in the means especially from December into January. But the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet kept interfering by lowering heights out West as soon as they built.

So the -EPO that we usually see with +PDO atmospheric patterns was too back and forth instead of staying as negative as 13-14 and 14-15 did with the great -WPOs we enjoyed back then as you mentioned.

Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted. 

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The climate model I posted a while back did a good job forecasting the +PDO from 2014 to 2018 with the 2013 initialization. The current batch of climate models I recently posted continues this -PDO driven by the record warm WPAC that began in 2019 up through 2030. 

But my guess is that this could change if we can get a strong enough El Niño in 26-27 or 27-28. We would probably need a record EPAC warming in conjunction with a very strong to super El Niño to compete against the WPAC warm pool. But not sure what a strong +PDO would look like following the recent global baseline temperature jump in 23 to 24. Plus the recent very strong El Niño in 23-24 couldn’t shift the La Niña background as we saw the record WPAC forcing near the MC for an El Niño.

The AMO has been a different story. There was talk back in the summer of 2013 and 2014 that the AMO was in the process of going negative following the unusually quiet hurricane seasons.

But instead  the North Atlantic SSTs became much warmer from 2015 to 2019 with a new SST pattern emerging. A small cold pool south of Greenland with record SSTs east of New England. This is different from past AMO SST configurations. Then in 2023 and 2024 the entire basin jumped to record highs associated with less clouds, lighter winds, and higher pressures. I posted this study in the Global Temperature thread if anyone is interested. 

So we are seeing different processes in the Atlantic especially over the last decade from the past AMO cycles. There has also been a record number of hurricanes focusing the landfalls around the Gulf Coast since 2017. One of the unusual hallmarks of these storms is that they have been intensifying during landfall. While older storms would reliably begin to weaken with only a few deepening into landfall. 

So maybe it will take a volcanic eruption not seen in hundreds or thousands of years to to cool the oceans below so much that it mimics a -AMO. Outside of that not sure how to cool the North Atlantic. These record ridges getting stuck in place rapidly warm the seas below like we just saw around NW Europe with the record 3 to 4 SD SST warming there.

 

I know how to cool the north atlantic much sooner than that.  Melt all the polar ice and that will cool down the waters with the influx of ice water into the north atlantic.  That will probably happen within the next few decades too.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This past winter was trying to put  together the semblance of a +PDO 500mb pattern in the means especially from December into January. But the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet kept interfering by lowering heights out West as soon as they built.

So the -EPO that we usually see with +PDO atmospheric patterns was too back and forth instead of staying as negative as 13-14 and 14-15 did with the great -WPOs we enjoyed back then as you mentioned.

Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted. 

 

I'm sure there have been failed attempts in the past, too...I don't care to sort through dailies for 4 hours, but if you do, then be my guest. Bottom line is that it didn't actually shift, nor is it expected to do so for several more years.  Off the top of my head, though I'm sure you will examine the dailies and find some inconsistency...but February 2000 featured an uncharacteristically +PNA during a La Nina, and then of course we had the 2000-2001 season that must have had everyone convinced that the Pacific had flipped....yet 2001-2002 happened.

Bottom line is we need to see where we are in the early 2030s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think its also important to note that were in an incredibly extreme -PDO regime for a few years and will take time to reverse that....I am sure there will be some initial resistance, but the PDO has come up to coincide with those initial hints of change last season.

The baseline assumption regarding these cycles and circulations is preedicated on what has happened in the past....while we can make suggestions as to how that may be changing, it will take time to prove that one way or another.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure there have been failed attempts in the past, too...I don't care to sort through dailies for 4 hours, but if you do, then be my guest. Bottom line is that it didn't actually shift, nor is it expected to do so for several more years. 

The disappointing part is that most to all of the La Niña +PNA mismatch December into January seasons like 20-21, 17-18, 00-01, and 95-96 were great to amazing snowfall seasons.

This past season singularly was extremely low for snowfall compared to past events. This is why the mismatch potential I was discussing back last October with the early MJO indicator had caveats. As other features weren’t lining up like those great seasons. So while I was anticipating the +PNA, the Pacific Jet showed that it wasn’t going to relax right out of the gate in December.

So it’s a bit like a baseball game where the team keeps leaving the bases loaded and can’t drive in any of the runs. 

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know how to cool the north atlantic much sooner than that.  Melt all the polar ice and that will cool down the waters with the influx of ice waters into the north atlantic.  That will probably happen within the next few decades too.

 

Good morning Liberty. I can appreciate your passion. You’re obviously well stocked between the ears. Perhaps it might be best if you took a dispassionate pause before making some statements. Stay well, as always ….

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The disappointing part is that most to all of the La Niña +PNA mismatch December into January seasons like 20-21, 17-18, 00-01, and 95-96 were great to amazing snowfall seasons.

This past season singularly was extremely low for snowfall compared to past events. This is why the mismatch potential I was discussing back last October with the early MJO indicator had caveats. As other features weren’t lining up like those great seasons. So while I was anticipating the +PNA, the Pacific Jet showed that it wasn’t going to relax right out of the gate in December.

So it’s a bit like a baseball game where the team keeps leaving the bases loaded and can’t drive in any of the runs. 

Great baseball analogy, a sport in which analytics has become an increasingly large component of the game....analystics would argue that this will eventually regress to the mean. Our batting average was well above our expected batting average last decade and this decade that is reversing, hence the regression. Now, I understand the valid arguments that this is more than simple regression and while that may be true, it is gong to take some time to know for certain.

Each of those 4 season were -WPO, except for 2017-2018, which was carried by the huge March and epic NAO blocking....again, no argument from me that the +WPO attributabed PAC jet is a problem right now.

[roardog]

58 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also took several years for the PDO to shift follwing the strong EL Nino of 1972-1973, so that make sense.

Yeah. We saw the -PDO hold in what was I believe technically a super Nino. So it’s not like it’s never happened before during a very -PDO regime.

[roardog]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted. 

 

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, roardog said:

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that. 

It was a dry winter in general, but it was wasn't dry over the lakes as it was along the east coast.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, rclab said:

Good morning Liberty. I can appreciate your passion. You’re obviously well stocked between the ears. Perhaps it might be best if you took a dispassionate pause before making some statements. Stay well, as always ….

 

It's going to happen anyway, it's beyond our control :-(

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was a dry winter in general, but it was wasn't dry over the lakes as it was along the east coast.

Maybe because of the warmer Great Lakes?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great baseball analogy, a sport in which analytics has become an increasingly large component of the game....analystics would argue that this will eventually regress to the mean. Our batting average was well above our expected batting average last decade and this decade that is reversing, hence the regression. Now, I understand the valid arguments that this is more than simple regression and while that may be true, it is gong to take some time to know for certain.

Each of those 4 season were -WPO, except for 2017-2018, which was carried by the huge March and epic NAO blocking....again, no argument from me that the +WPO attributabed PAC jet is a problem right now.

Man, we hate analytics, the three most boring outcomes has made the game very very hard to watch (similar to basketball).  Thats a completely different topic though.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe because of the warmer Great Lakes?

Maybe, there were some inside runners, too.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, roardog said:

You keep saying this but outside of the lake effect snow belts, this area had a dry winter which is very uncharacteristic of a Nina winter. The Nina winters that are dry here are usually the ones that have the giant vortex over Alaska that keeps the entire country mild. This past winter obviously didn’t have anything close to that. 

The storm track through the Great Lakes was pushed further north and east than usual resulting in the snowiest February on record in Toronto. So you needed to be far enough north to get into the really good stuff. Plus the record warmth and open waters around Hudson Bay kept the Great Lakes warmer than they typically see during La Ninas since the source region was so much warmer than normal. This residual pattern could have been lingering from the previous winter which was the warmest on record for many spots around the Great Lakes.

The custom composites that I generated below isolate the storm track dates. These composites feature the 11 days this past winter that .20 or greater of precipitation fell around NYC Metro. So this was the dominant storm track for my area. The average temperature on these storm dates in NYC was 41°. It’s why the snowfall last winter was so low even though the average winter temperatures for the 3 month period was closer to 35.0°. 

The La Niña reference to the pattern is how strong the Southeast Ridge was along with the subtropical ridge from near Hawaii into the Southern Plains on the major winter storm track days around the Northeast. Also notice the familiar -NAO Greenland to Iceland block linking with the Southeast Ridge yet again. The La Niña mismatch feature was the stronger -EPO+PNA than usual. 

The extended Pacific Jet from Japan across the CONUS was also significantly stronger than past La Niña instances. My guess this is a result of the gradient between the record WPAC warm pool and Arctic cold in Siberia. So an enhanced La Niña pattern in some regards with variations leaving some areas of the Great Lakes drier and warmer than usual La Ninas. 
 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Man, we hate analytics, the three most boring outcomes has made the game very very hard to watch (similar to basketball).  Thats a completely different topic though.

 

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/death-diamond-how-analytics-destroying-baseball-from-inside-kelly-qfepe