2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Alex may need this link. It's been pretty steady for the last 5 weeks.

16APR2025     26.2 0.6     27.3-0.2     27.5-0.2     28.2-0.3
 23APR2025     25.1-0.3     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.0     28.5-0.1
 30APR2025     25.2 0.1     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.6-0.0
 07MAY2025     24.8-0.0     27.2-0.1     28.0 0.1     28.6-0.1
 14MAY2025     24.4-0.1     27.0-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.7-0.0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

SOI is taking a dump fwiw.

Not according to this https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

That map is the SST profile May-July that leads the Winter WPO.. positive phase, although it has correlated with -PDO more so in the last 8 years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge. There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge.  There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

Hey Chuck,

 -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific.

-Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO.

-Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific.

-Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO.

-Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

The AMO may have an imapact:

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

I don't know what the numbers are at 40N.. Maybe it is +3F. 

+WPO flexes the SE ridge further north when coupled with -PNA, and as Ray pointed out it has been positive every Winter but 1 since 16-17

I don't think that we are seeing more of a SE ridge because of global warming. I think that whatever the global temperature increase is divided by latitude is what that impact is.

[bluewave]

23 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, this also plays into the pattern, which has sucked for the past 8 years or so. I understand that although you won't admit it, you strongly hedge towards this being permanent. I am not there yet.

We will find out in a few years.

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. 

This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. 

Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978.

Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895.

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. 

The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer. 

 

[snowman19]

Alex may need this link. It's been pretty steady for the last 5 weeks.

16APR2025     26.2 0.6     27.3-0.2     27.5-0.2     28.2-0.323APR2025     25.1-0.3     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.0     28.5-0.130APR2025     25.2 0.1     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.6-0.007MAY2025     24.8-0.0     27.2-0.1     28.0 0.1     28.6-0.114MAY2025     24.4-0.1     27.0-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.7-0.0

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

I keep finding it odd that 2009-10, as a strong el nino, ended up as the coldest CONUS winter of this era. Pretty much every other strong el nino since 1972-73 (with the exception of 1991-92, which was affected by Pinatubo) produced a baseline jump in temperature. Even 1982-83, which had El Chichon.

So what caused 2009-10 to be such a cold winter CONUS? There had to be some underlying reason here (like was there a volcano in late 2008/2009?) Otherwise, it should have been a warm CONUS winter at the very least, and possibly produced a baseline jump like the other strong el ninos.

[snowman19]

After a relaxation, the models are showing another big trade wind burst in June, likely leading to some more cooling next month

To add to this:

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I keep finding it odd that 2009-10, as a strong el nino, ended up as the coldest CONUS winter of this era. Pretty much every other strong el nino since 1972-73 (with the exception of 1991-92, which was affected by Pinatubo) produced a baseline jump in temperature. Even 1982-83, which had El Chichon.

So what caused 2009-10 to be such a cold winter CONUS? There had to be some underlying reason here (like was there a volcano in late 2008/2009?) Otherwise, it should have been a warm CONUS winter at the very least, and possibly produced a baseline jump like the other strong el ninos.

We knew something was up as early as June 2009. Record -NAO -AO pattern emerged with solid trough development underneath. Was actually the 6th coldest June and July on record for the Northeast going back to 1895.  It was a beautifully refreshing summer that year.

Then the CONUS scored their 4th coldest October on record since 1895 from coast to coast. So in some ways it was a warmer mirroring of the 1976-1977 historic cold pattern which emerged during in the summer of 1976. But it didn’t have the extreme level of cold in 1976-1977. Most on here were fine with that since the snowfall pattern was so much better than in 1976-1977. 

The STJ during the 2009-2010 winter was one of the most beautiful the East has ever seen. I would take my chances any time with a STJ like that even in a very mild winter. Since even in a very warm winter we would be bound to connect at least a few times for a KU event with that kind of storm track. Most would be happy even getting a smaller snowfall version of 2009-2010. I wouldn’t even care if it was 60° a few days later.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/23/2025 at 4:01 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge. There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The idea is that these baseline jumps in temperatures are permanent across the globe. But the door is always open for very high end volcanic activity which would shift us back temporarily to colder regimes of the past. Though after a number of years we would revert warmer again. 

This storm track shift to warmer and further north is still a work in progress after 7 seasons with the record low snowfall totals. I think it’s possible the there could be some shift in the way the Pacific is warming which could lead to benchmark snowstorm tracks returning from time to time. But I don’t think it’s very likely the record 2010-2018 with the 50 to 100 year concentration of KU Benchmark tracks will return absent major volcanism. 

Through the 1970s the world was still in a much colder climate. This allowed the CONUS to have the #1 coldest winter since 1895 in 1978-1979. The CONUS also experienced their 7th coldest winter in 1977-1978 and 12th coldest in 1976-1977. The Northeast recorded their #5 coldest winter in 1976-1977 and 11th coldest in 1977-1978.

Our first baseline jump in temperatures across the world occurred in 1982-1983. Across the CONUS the coldest winters of this era were 1983-1984 at #18 and 1984-1985 at #19 coldest. For the Northeast the coldest winter of this era was 1993-1994 which ranked as #13 coldest since 1895.

The next global baseline jump in temperatures occurred in 1997-1998 and was much larger than 1982-1983. So the coldest CONUS winter of this era was 2009-2010 which ranked at #22 coldest since 1895. The coldest Northeast winter of this era was 2014-2015 which ranked as #22 coldest. 

Another major baseline temperature jump happened in 2015-2016. So the coldest winter of this era was 2018-2019 at #84 coldest for the CONUS. 

The most recent even larger baseline jump in temperatures started in 2023-2024. Our coldest CONUS winter so far was 2024-2025 at #104 coldest. This past winter was also the 27 warmest on record for the CONUS even with the coldest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere focusing into the CONUS in January. But December was so warm for the CONUS at #4 warmest that is balanced out the winter average to much warmer. 

 

I agree with you that the baseline jump in temps is permanent, and also agree that we need to wait and see on the storm track. Like I was saying, I think most of our disagreements are just born of inconsistencies in the manner that we articulate ourselves and the points that we stress. We largely agree in a general sense.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

We knew something was up as early as June 2009. Record -NAO -AO pattern emerged with solid trough development underneath. Was actually the 6th coldest June and July on record for the Northeast going back to 1895.  It was a beautifully refreshing summer that year.

Then the CONUS scored their 4th coldest October on record since 1895 from coast to coast. So in some ways it was a warmer mirroring of the 1976-1977 historic cold pattern which emerged during in the summer of 1976. But it didn’t have the extreme level of cold in 1976-1977. Most on here were fine with that since the snowfall pattern was so much better than in 1976-1977. 

The STJ during the 2009-2010 winter was one of the most beautiful the East has ever seen. I would take my chances any time with a STJ like that even in a very mild winter. Since even in a very warm winter we would be bound to connect at least a few times for a KU event with that kind of storm track. Most would be happy even getting a smaller snowfall version of 2009-2010. I wouldn’t even care if it was 60° a few days later.

 

 

I would honestly pass on a STJ as strong as 2009-2010 again.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

I keep finding it odd that 2009-10, as a strong el nino, ended up as the coldest CONUS winter of this era. Pretty much every other strong el nino since 1972-73 (with the exception of 1991-92, which was affected by Pinatubo) produced a baseline jump in temperature. Even 1982-83, which had El Chichon.

So what caused 2009-10 to be such a cold winter CONUS? There had to be some underlying reason here (like was there a volcano in late 2008/2009?) Otherwise, it should have been a warm CONUS winter at the very least, and possibly produced a baseline jump like the other strong el ninos.

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical  stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an ascending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion.

Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's like I have said to you before.....it's folly to generalize ENSO by intensity.....2009-2010 was a different breed than prototypical  stronger events...it was a full-fledged Modoki during an arc ending solar cycle just beyond solar min. That is a mid Atlantic wet dream....it's no mystery what it evolved in a favorable fashion.

Everyone and their mother was forecasting a blockbuster season that fall...it was obvious.

 

It was strong -QBO, too, which goes with El Nino for Stratosphere warming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Completely agree.....I am open to the idea of CC forcing that pattern, but as I have been saying...I would need to see it persist into the 2030s.

+WPO has been linked to Indian Ocean warming. Indian Ocean SST patterns may be decadal, although the long term trend is generally up. 

 

[mitchnick]

8 hours ago, snowman19 said:

To add to this:

 

 

 

 

Key word "potential." But the numbers I posted showed no warming showing up thru 5/14. Going off those surface maps can be misleading because 1) there are several SSTA product maps out there and they are often different, albeit subtle at times, and who knows exactly which map generates those numbers I posted, and 2) you really can't make an accurate assessment off those maps of subtle changes...iow, eyeballing them doesn't work well most of the time when trying to determine numerical numbers from the CPC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

+WPO has been linked to Indian Ocean warming. Indian Ocean SST patterns may be decadal, although the long term trend is generally up. 

 

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It was strong -QBO, too, which goes with El Nino for Stratosphere warming

Yep...left that out.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It was strong -QBO, too, which goes with El Nino for Stratosphere warming

Indeed. Look at how weak the SPV was during the 2nd half of winter of 2009-10:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I took a cursory look back and couldn't find a stretch that has been as consistently strongly positive as it has been since 2017.

All this stuff about the "Pacific firehose near Japan" is linked to the WPO, and positive phase of that index. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

All this stuff about the "Pacific firehose near Japan" is linked to the WPO, and positive phase of that index. 

Exactly...that is what I have been saying. This is what I point out when Chris tries to explain that past -NAO/+PNA was more successful...they were -WPO.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Strong +AO for the next 2 weeks should keep Arctic Summer Ice melt relatively below normal to start the season, compared to the last 15 years. Lots of cold 500mb anomalies over the Arctic circle. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think this is so interesting - I've talked before about ENSO subsurface trends, and how it correlates with the N. Hemisphere pattern more than ENSO SSTs, OLR, 850mb winds, etc. 

Now, we are currently getting a healthy Kelvin wave that has changed the central-ENSO-subsurface in a few weeks from -1c to about +2-3c. 

Now, we have a strong +AO - about as strong as it's going to get at this time of the year. I rolled that forward to the following Winter, and got an El Nino-like pattern of a warm December, followed by a cold February

The STJ pattern currently projected looks like El Nino for the next 3-4 weeks

All this while a strong Kelvin Wave is warming the central-ENSO-subsurface in now-time. I've said before that the effects of such a happening are immediate - see how these El Nino aspects are happening around this coherent wave?  It happens that way quite often.