2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Alex may need this link. It's been pretty steady for the last 5 weeks.

16APR2025     26.2 0.6     27.3-0.2     27.5-0.2     28.2-0.3
 23APR2025     25.1-0.3     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.0     28.5-0.1
 30APR2025     25.2 0.1     27.3-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.6-0.0
 07MAY2025     24.8-0.0     27.2-0.1     28.0 0.1     28.6-0.1
 14MAY2025     24.4-0.1     27.0-0.2     27.8-0.1     28.7-0.0

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

SOI is taking a dump fwiw.

Not according to this https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You mean there is a positive correlation between the equatorial Pacific waters during the summer and the subsequent winter season NAO?

That map is the SST profile May-July that leads the Winter WPO.. positive phase, although it has correlated with -PDO more so in the last 8 years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge. There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm tired of global warming being blamed for the Winter SE ridge, especially during -AO/-NAO periods, when the Pacific has been in +WPO/-PNA. This map makes sense to me in regard to those 2 patterns and downstream effects. 

Global warming makes a +2F overall difference, but that's about it. It's not some unicorn pattern that is causing new things, like a more impactful SE ridge.  There is meteorology involved, everything that happens has a reason. The global warming effects are global, but not localized. 

Hey Chuck,

 -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific.

-Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO.

-Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 -A pro met at (the former?) Maxar who I keep in touch with on occasion blamed the increased SE ridge tendency a few years ago on the disproportionately very warm western equatorial Pacific.

-Also, I’ve seen some others give a portion of the blame to the +AMO.

-Wasn’t GW closing in on +2.5 to +3.0 F after that big 2023 spike?

The AMO may have an imapact:

-AMO ibb.co/bR3LvKW

+AMO ibb.co/KctZCPm

-AMO ibb.co/wKX4YCC

+AMO ibb.co/sFSwm0j

I don't know what the numbers are at 40N.. Maybe it is +3F. 

+WPO flexes the SE ridge further north when coupled with -PNA, and as Ray pointed out it has been positive every Winter but 1 since 16-17

I don't think that we are seeing more of a SE ridge because of global warming. I think that whatever the global temperature increase is divided by latitude is what that impact is.