Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 I think its time to go to bed. The models are all going the wrong way. We lost the only good one 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 how does this not phase lol...so much for blocking backing up the flow. we are cooked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 I hate every part of SE Virginia. You are not suppose to get snow you morons! 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Just now, Ji said: how does this not phase lol...so much for blocking backing up the flow. we are cooked As long as it's close it hear watching. But if models start trending further and further away then we are indeed cooked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Just now, Ji said: I hate every part of SE Virginia. You are not suppose to get snow you morons! Ready for spring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 9 minutes ago, Ji said: sometimes you wonder how this stuff thats so close could miss--but it happens all the time. from thsi screen shot...it looks like it would be an upset if they didnt phase if it was easy we would get a MECS storm more often and not just a couple times a decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 20 minutes ago, Ji said: why--you have from March to December to sleep. Be a real weatherman lol! I’ll pull an all nighter when we get that nighttime snowstorm. Think strategically, save your energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Just now, psuhoffman said: if it was easy we would get a MECS storm more often and not just a couple times a decade. Like I said yesterday...I think it's remarkable that 8/20 MECS+ came in 16 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate every part of SE Virginia. You are not suppose to get snow you morons! That's not bad for 6 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 4 minutes ago, Ji said: how does this not phase lol...so much for blocking backing up the flow. we are cooked Block isn't super strong.. +NAO keeps the flow progressive We still can get a snow event out of it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 3 minutes ago, Ji said: how does this not phase lol...so much for blocking backing up the flow. we are cooked I mean it does produce a storm, it drops 10" of snow on southeast VA...it just doesn't hit us... but looking at that the difference between a hit for us and VA is pretty small when looking at the H5 pattern a couple days before. You're talking about details pretty minor that determine where the northern edge ends up being on a storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: That's not bad for 6 days out lol Yeah.. I think its potential is somewhat capped though.. expect more of a progressive wave vs Miller A MECS. But it could trend north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 4 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate every part of SE Virginia. You are not suppose to get snow you morons! Enjoying this winter down in Colonial Beach. Rule of averages though means we probably won't get another storm for 5 years after this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 I just have to bring this up once a month during winter We are too far north for southern sliders We are too far south for Miller B jumpers We are too far West for most eastern coastals We are too far east for any clippers 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Block isn't super strong.. +NAO keeps the flow progressive We still can get a snow event out of it though If you flipped all the heights it would be a HORRIBLE pattern. I know numerically its a +NAO but NOBODY except you categorizes the NAO that way. NOBODY 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 its actually amazing how every single model has the low in the exact same place.....kind of eerie...how is there this much agreement that far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you flipped all the heights it would be a HORRIBLE pattern. I know numerically its a +NAO but NOBODY except you categorizes the NAO that way. NOBODY A trough off the west coast in the NE Pacific would look attractive. Our average temp is in the low to mid 40s.. we need more than flipping the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 GFS is garbage. Got rid of any frozen for saturday as expected https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025021400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 The biggest issue I see is the pattern west of the trough...the ridge axis is a little too far west and we don't have a trough south of AK which is typically what causes storms to amplify into the east. Chuck, I know we lose the block...but with the MJO into 8 and the pac jet extending we should get a chance for an amplification into the east after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Just now, Ji said: GFS is garbage. Got rid of any frozen for saturday as expected https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2025021400/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_6.png It's done that a few times now with waves WAY to our NW showing frozen when the euro had NOTHING and it of course was wrong each time. I don't even pay it any attention in those setups anymore unless the euro agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Just now, psuhoffman said: The biggest issue I see is the pattern west of the trough...the ridge axis is a little too far west and we don't have a trough south of AK which is typically what causes storms to amplify into the east. Chuck, I know we lose the block...but with the MJO into 8 and the pac jet extending we should get a chance for an amplification into the east after this. the ensembles look like garbage after this storm though right now. It feel like Feb 20th or bust. The NAO/AO are all going positive...the EPO is going positive. All we will have is the PNA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's done that a few times now with waves WAY to our NW showing frozen when the euro had NOTHING and it of course was wrong each time. I don't even pay it any attention in those setups anymore unless the euro agrees. there is one guy who bought it. https://x.com/TonyPannWBAL/status/1890040661023310108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The biggest issue I see is the pattern west of the trough...the ridge axis is a little too far west and we don't have a trough south of AK which is typically what causes storms to amplify into the east. Chuck, I know we lose the block...but with the MJO into 8 and the pac jet extending we should get a chance for an amplification into the east after this. I understand what you're saying, just know that models have trended toward a warmer high latitude pattern after the 20-22 storm.. They have been bad in the Day 10+ range, but right now I think it's looking like more of a rain threat. Maybe the MJO tendency will overpower.. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 28 minutes ago, Ji said: I hate every part of SE Virginia. You are not suppose to get snow you morons! At the very least this proves we haven't permanently lost the ability to get these big storms given how this miss materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: At the very least this proves we haven't permanently lost the ability to get these big storms given how this miss materializes. no one has said we "lots the ability" but cold snowy patters are happening less. Less not never. We need a hit, no moral victories here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2025 Author Share Posted February 14, 2025 Ok, so far at H5, noticing some difference up top. It's early, so can't draw any conclusions, but it is different. Not as supressive and TPV more intact 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 Ok, so far at H5, noticing some difference up top. It's early, so can't draw any conclusions, but it is different. Not as supressive and TPV more intactYeah it caved to look like other models with the energy around the lakes. Of course lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I understand what you're saying, just know that models have trended toward a warmer high latitude pattern after the 20-22 storm.. They have been bad in the Day 10+ range, but right now I think it's looking like more of a rain threat. Maybe the MJO tendency will overpower.. we'll see. If we get a full latitude trough in the east that is actually colder than a high latitude block with a trough under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Yeah it caved to look like other models with the energy around the lakes. Of course lol . I never thought we would fail THAT way...but now that guidance is on the same page with that we need to see how they converge on a solution. Right now just SE of us is the consensus and I want that to change in the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2025 Share Posted February 14, 2025 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, so far at H5, noticing some difference up top. It's early, so can't draw any conclusions, but it is different. Not as supressive and TPV more intact it seems to a higher PNA ridge-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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