Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[wncsnow]

Long range doesnt appear really exciting but its showing something different each run. 

[PackGrad05]

12Z EURO and EPS both increased coverage/amounts for NC for Monday's small system.

GFS still leads the way with highest amounts.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

December 15

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Stout Alaskan Ridge upcoming 

[CentralNC]

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Stout Alaskan Ridge upcoming 

Pattern just has the feel that is something is going to pop, and without much particular warning.

[BooneWX]

Pattern just has the feel that is something is going to pop, and without much particular warning.

We are so close, it’s easy to see. Right now, we’re getting the red track with these shortwaves, which continues to favor a lack of digging and marginal weak events into the mid-Atlantic.

Nudge that trough west so it’s centered over the lakes and we’ll be ready for takeoff. It wouldn’t take much to trend that direction - it’s really a small tweak at range. Pumping that ridge out west would be helpful too but we can’t have everything.


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[BornAgain13]

Long Range HRRR for Monday

[wncsnow]

8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Long Range HRRR for Monday

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday

[BooneWX]

GEFS moved the trough west at 12z, right where we’d need it. Gotta get the euro ensembles on board though. 

[wncsnow]

The trough just wants to set up too far east the last few years. We need a 50/50 low 

[wncsnow]

Eastern NC folks could get something Monday. New NAM

[BornAgain13]

11 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Eastern NC folks could get something Monday. New NAM

18z 12k NAM is more robust and a rather big change from 12z

[WinstonSalemArlington]

NAMaste

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Frigid 

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

NAMed

[strongwxnc]

One county over to the left of the black box of death is me. lol


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[WinstonSalemArlington]

Pipe-busting cold ahead 

[olafminesaw]

If I were a betting man I'd say the RGEM probably has the best handle on this. Looking back it more or less nailed the last system 48 hours out (just a couple counties too far south)

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Pipe-busting cold ahead 

Suppression (depression) city

[BooneWX]

1 hour ago, strongwxnc said:

One county over to the left of the black box of death is me. lol


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Upslope only happens for us during hurricanes, you know the rules 

[wncsnow]

GFS still on steroids. I wouldnt totally discount it. It does pretty well with northern stream (well it used to)

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

GFS still on steroids. I wouldnt totally discount it. It does pretty well with northern stream (well it used to)

Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Actually seems like a pretty reasonable output. The footprint makes sense to me. 

It then brings more snow that misses us with the arctic front wave lol 

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS for Mondays Potential