Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[Met1985]

41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

That step down process really worked for us last year.. we got nailed before the gulf coast got theirs.. oh wait

We had plenty of cold air last year. We just couldn't get the moisture in here. Deep troughs pushed the low pressure systems south. So not a lack of cold but too much of a good thing.

[SEwakenosnowforu]

4 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

What is it with you??? Must you always criticize every positive post? You remind me of an old poster..... Widreman. 

Hey CAD...it's beffrey2.. it's cuz he is tired of getting screwed year after year. I totally feel his pain! Hope all is well.

[wncsnow]

38 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

We had plenty of cold air last year. We just couldn't get the moisture in here. Deep troughs pushed the low pressure systems south. So not a lack of cold but too much of a good thing.

I dont disagree it's just weird how the cold seems to always push the moisture down now or we have a Great Lakes Low, or the air is too dry. Its like baking a cake but we almost always have a missing ingredient 

[wncsnow]

UK is a cold rain and a decent snow for DC north. 

[wncsnow]

Euro is weak and light rain, little bit of snow for Mid Atlantic 

[wncsnow]

Funny how quiet it gets when King Euro and the EPS shows nothing in the long range to get excited about. 

[wxslug]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Funny how quiet it gets when King Euro and the EPS shows nothing in the long range to get excited about. 

You’re “surprised” that the posting follows how it has been for years on this site? Does your incessant trolling make your day? 

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, wxslug said:

You’re “surprised” that the posting follows how it has been for years on this site? Does your incessant trolling make your day? 

Considering your response it must make yours too thanks for the love 

[wncsnow]

And it isn't trolling if its true. Go look for yourself. 

[wxslug]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

And it isn't trolling if it’s true. Go look for yourself. 

The asinine nature of your posts is what is trolling. But you know that. Anyway, I’ll patiently wait for the others with actual useful information to post now. Have fun being miserable.

[wncsnow]

Just now, wxslug said:

The asinine nature of your posts is what is trolling. But you know that. Anyway, I’ll patiently wait for the others with actual useful information to post now. Have fun being miserable.

You think the Euro and EPS data isn't useful when its the model with the best verification scores? 

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

I dont disagree it's just weird how the cold seems to always push the moisture down now or we have a Great Lakes Low, or the air is too dry. Its like baking a cake but we almost always have a missing ingredient 

I just think it's this cycle we are in. We will break out of it eventually.  Just one of those things.

[ncjoaquin]

14 minutes ago, wxslug said:

The asinine nature of your posts is what is trolling. But you know that. Anyway, I’ll patiently wait for the others with actual useful information to post now. Have fun being miserable.

In fairness to WNCSNOW,  he is as excited as anybody when there is something to be excited about.

He doesn't necessarily like to look for the positive when it requires a little searching, but he is quite often right because of that.

I don't think he is trolling at all. He is just a realist. Realism can be painful around here though, lol. 

He is a little negative, but he is a good dude and a good poster to have on this board. 

 

[kvegas-wx]

Not trolling, just a novice observation and welcome any explanations.  But I am so tired of seeing the comment about "snowpack being laid down will help us" every single year.  Anyone want to elaborate on why snowpack across the mountains and 500 miles northwest will help our battle against a nearly decade long SER problem?  Sure it may help with cold-er air chasing our moisture from the southern stream.  But I honestly cannot recall a single event where snowpack was featured as the reason our temps were favorable enough to enable a winter storm.  What's the thinking here?  (And any case studies?)

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

5 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Only posting what I see, sorry its not rainbows and butterflies. It's not like im making it up 

Are you completely ignoring the MJO? That's well-established data. We have seen modeled torches evaporate as we approach go-time. Trends are pointing to a great December. Now, all that could change, but right now, you are just being negative for the sake of disagreement.

[SouthWake33]

In fairness to WNCSNOW,  he is as excited as anybody when there is something to be excited about.
He doesn't necessarily like to look for the positive when it requires a little searching, but he is quite often right because of that.
I don't think he is trolling at all. He is just a realist. Realism can be painful around here though, lol. 
He is a little negative, but he is a good dude and a good poster to have on this board. 
 

Regardless of whether he is intentionally trolling the negativity gets old. He’s not the only one.


.

[wncsnow]

I think its time I took a break since I seem to be coming off the way I am. 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 hours ago, SEwakenosnowforu said:

Hey CAD...it's beffrey2.. it's cuz he is tired of getting screwed year after year. I totally feel his pain! Hope all is well.

Hey buddy, I wondered what happened to you. Glad you are still around.

[BooneWX]

40 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Not trolling, just a novice observation and welcome any explanations.  But I am so tired of seeing the comment about "snowpack being laid down will help us" every single year.  Anyone want to elaborate on why snowpack across the mountains and 500 miles northwest will help our battle against a nearly decade long SER problem?  Sure it may help with cold-er air chasing our moisture from the southern stream.  But I honestly cannot recall a single event where snowpack was featured as the reason our temps were favorable enough to enable a winter storm.  What's the thinking here?  (And any case studies?)

I’ll be the first to say I need assistance via @GaWxto help with some case studies but I’d argue a big reason we’ve lacked winter storms in recent years comes down to the lack of a -NAO, which fortunately, the models are starting to catch up and show. We’ve lacked that for multiple seasons to help keep the cold bottled up on the east coast. Friday is prime example of how snowpack can help. Most of the models have a 1030ish HP to our north. That is never going to cut it unless the source region for our cold isn’t modifying. That snowpack is going to be a tremendous help in making sure that it doesn’t. It basically saves us from being dependent on a 1035+ in a perfect position to advect cold, dry air. 

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think it’s time I took a break since I seem to be coming off the way I am. 

You’re understandably frustrated and I get it. You and I among many, both live in an area that should get multiple opportunities per year and we are lucky to get 1 shot every 3/4 seasons of late. I just think we’ve all got to take a breath. The models were showing near record temps for the exact period we’re talking about just a week ago, and now we’ve got fantasy storms. I’m not in any way discounting the EPS or the Euro Op - you’re 100% correct: nothing concrete is shown but an emerging -NAO, -AO, cold on our side of hemisphere and an active southern jet is all we can ask for at the moment. The way the models have performed, I don’t think we can definitively say yes/no to a storm any time soon. The trend is our friend right now, so I’ll take it. 

[ncjoaquin]

27 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I think its time I took a break since I seem to be coming off the way I am. 

I think you have been fine. You have as much right to your opinion as anybody else.