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Mid to long range discussion- 2025


wncsnow
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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Only thing that might save the CAD regions from one of the warmest Octobers of all time is clouds/NE flow. We might get a front finally somewhere around October 15-18 but it will be above average about every day for at least the first 15 days of the month. 

Our forecast is showing either a major front or backdoor front coming thru around the 8th or 9th. Low 80's before, low 70's after for about 5 days before warming up.

 

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3 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Only thing that might save the CAD regions from one of the warmest Octobers of all time is clouds/NE flow. We might get a front finally somewhere around October 15-18 but it will be above average about every day for at least the first 15 days of the month. 

Hmmm it doesn’t seem torchy to me

IMG-7039.jpg

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 There will continue to be persistent moderate NE and then E winds during the upcoming few days followed by a freshening of them from the NE late week from a new surface high. In addition, there’s a full moon on Tue (10/7) and perigee on Wed (10/8). As a result of the moon, astronomical tides are progged to be the highest of 2025 so far Oct 7-10. Because these already quite high tides are going to combine with the current and upcoming week’s winds, as well as a stronger surge of NE winds Thu/Fri, there’s a possibility of major coastal flooding at/near high tide late this week in the corridor from CHS through GA. Those in or traveling to coastal areas late this week should keep up to date on this:

From KCHS NWS:
GUSTY NE WINDS RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT -  
25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE REFLECTING A MOST LIKELY WIND SPEED  
ALONG THE COAST OF AROUND 20-30 MPH - TO END THE WORKWEEK,  
WHICH, IN ADDITION TO ALREADY ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS, COULD BRING  
A PERIOD OF VERY IMPACTFUL TIDAL FLOODING TO END THE WEEK. SEE  
COASTAL FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  

ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASED THROUGH NEXT WEEK  
DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL MOON (OCT 7) AND PERIGEE (OCT 8). THIS  
IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICIPATION OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY  
FLOW WILL CAUSE THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL FLOODING TO BECOME  
MORE LIKELY ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE, INCLUDING BOTH DOWNTOWN  
CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI. SALTWATER INUNDATION COULD THEN  
OCCUR DURING BOTH THE MORNING AND EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES  
DURING THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY  
THIS FAR OUT, PERSISTENT FAVORABLE WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO  
PRODUCE UP TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT  
WEEK.

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