Mid to long range discussion- 2025

[ncjoaquin]

It will be gone at 0z, but I will throw it on here to break the silence.

[BornAgain13]

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

Yeah, 18Z GEFS strongly for an ensemble mean followed the 18Z GFS fwiw (thus I don’t expect this to hold up on the 0Z):

[BornAgain13]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Yeah, 18Z GEFS strongly for an ensemble mean followed the 18Z GFS fwiw (thus I don’t expect this to hold up on the 0Z):

The way the models have not been performing well, nothing would surprise me right now lol. But yeah more than likely, this won't last.

[GaWx]

6 hours ago, ncjoaquin said:

It will be gone at 0z, but I will throw it on here to break the silence.

 

5 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GEFS really bumped up for next Sunday. Probably will be gone by 0z though. 

Not gone at 0Z. Still there and similar:

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS 10:1 24 hour snow: lower amounts vs 18Z GEFS but still decent signal 

[NorthHillsWx]

Still there at 6z too 

[frazdaddy]

GfS says good morning.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

GfS says good morning.

6z is a big hit in southern Virginia. GFS Looks like modeling leading up to last storm lol. 

[eyewall]

Could be a legit signal.

[NorthHillsWx]

17 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Could be a legit signal.

The 9-10th period has been on models for a long time but it’s literally a 1.5 day cold shot so there’s no margin for error but yea probably enough of a signal to pay attention to. 

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The 9-10th period has been on models for a long time but it’s literally a 1.5 day cold shot so there’s no margin for error but yea probably enough of a signal to pay attention to. 

and that is how March rolls around here for sure.

[olafminesaw]

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

Honestly that’s how we get most March snow outside the mountains. If 850’s are workable with a dynamic system. Pretty rare to get a non-suppressed storm with an established Barney airmass this late in the year. The system showing up on all models is a fair signal at this timeframe but as stated it’s as thread the needle as you can get even for here. Mountains are definitely in the game. 

[frazdaddy]

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

EURO and Euro AI feature suppression. Certainly not the Barney cold as needed, to give wiggle room, about as "thread the needle" as a system can be. The only reason it snows on the GFS is it is able to produce it's own cold and draw down the colder air aloft. 

Yeah, and we know how that usually works out.

[olafminesaw]

The GFS Is showing gusts to 60 mph on Wednesday, while other models are much more reasonable. Should expect gusts in the mid 40s, but a big I difference between 40 and 50 mph gusts.

[NorthHillsWx]

12z GFS way different then the suppressed CMC and EURO and is an amped coastal for New England 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z GFS way different then the suppressed CMC and EURO and is an amped coastal for New England 

For NC, 12Z GEFS has reverted to mainly a mountain upslope event:

 

Compare this to the 18Z GEFS, which had 1-2” in the Triangle/Triad. Now it is only 0.2”-0.3”.

[wncsnow]

Euro is suppressed still 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro fwiw has a little snow on Mar 9 outside of the mtns in NW SC/SC NC:

 

This is at the far N end of the qpf:

 

 It has just a mini-Barney (Barney Rubble?) during a time of year that daddy-Barney may be needed as one of our posters previously sort of put it:

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS mean has increased from about nothing to very light snow that is near the 12Z GEFS amounts in NC:

But the EPS mean temp anom map doesn’t even have a Barney Rubble! Looks more like a Pebbles Flintstone. Good luck with that in March:

 

 

[EarlGrey]

What a sight it would be to have snow with the cherry blossoms blooming. Let’s go!

[WXNewton]

FWIW, Canadian ENS. showing some light accumulations too. Went from zero to a little hope! So now all models show some potential. 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

EURO made a pretty big leap towards “something” for the Carolina’s 

[Brick Tamland]

Meanwhile, we have a severe threat tomorrow and Wednesday in the SE.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

GFS really wants to crank a major NE snowstorm 

[BornAgain13]

20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS really wants to crank a major NE snowstorm 

GEFS isn't quite as amped. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

GEFS isn't quite as amped. 

I’m becoming more intrigued. With GFS op north and other guidance south something in middle seems reasonable

[Clemsonlady]

I put up all my winter gear over the weekend.. sleds, boots etc!


.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Clemsonlady said:

I put up all my winter gear over the weekend.. sleds, boots etc!


.

Get it back out just in case says the 0Z Goofy!

 

A full-fledged Barney is along for the ride this time!