2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

 

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

 

Yeah this is a huge and totally unnecessary loss. RI forecasting in real time will take a major hit. While there are a few more microwave options potentially available, losing SSMIS will inevitably degrade hurricane forecasting skill. 

The hits keep coming

 

[andyhb]

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Science and education are two things you need an organized body for... you can cut the rest. They seem to be doing the opposite. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

More data is always better. 

[andyhb]

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.

[Boston Bulldog]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely.

Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs.

Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

[TradeWinds]

15 hours ago, andyhb said:

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.

The new, state of the art WSF-M just achieved IOC in April. While the Space Force paid for it, NOAA is in talks with them. There are also other microwave imagery data still available to civilian agencies. Also, for the record, the decision to spilt the civilian and defense weather satellite programs was made in 2012 under the Obama Administration.

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

The new, state of the art WSF-M just achieved IOC in April. While the Space Force paid for it, NOAA is in talks with them. There are also other microwave imagery data still available to civilian agencies. Also, for the record, the decision to spilt the civilian and defense weather satellite programs was made in 2012 under the Obama Administration.

Unfortunately conjecture on potential future products and whataboutism does not fix the immediate gap in coverage we have right now going into the heart of Hurricane season. This short sighted decision will degrade forecasting and public safety immediately.

[andyhb]

5 hours ago, TradeWinds said:

The new, state of the art WSF-M just achieved IOC in April. While the Space Force paid for it, NOAA is in talks with them. There are also other microwave imagery data still available to civilian agencies. Also, for the record, the decision to spilt the civilian and defense weather satellite programs was made in 2012 under the Obama Administration.

Why are we trying to spin this as a good thing? Seriously.

There is no good reason to end SSMIS regardless of what program it is a part of. The other microwave imagery is a significantly degraded compared to SSMIS.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah, pull the politics out of it—this sounds like a classic case of bureaucrats making decisions that don’t work in the real world. 

How many times have we sat here thinking tropical storm/hurricane X is “about to take off” or “is weakening due to an ERC” or “we need a center fix for the 00z models” only to have MW or recon data blow away our preconceived notions?

I mean my goodness. Who wants to try to forecast if a cane off the east coast of Florida is about to undergo RI based on that quality of data below when recon is six hours away?

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, pull the politics out of it—this sounds like a classic case of bureaucrats making decisions that don’t work in the real world. 

How many times have we sat here thinking tropical storm/hurricane X is “about to take off” or “is weakening due to an ERC” or “we need a center fix for the 00z models” only to have MW or recon data blow away our preconceived notions?

I mean my goodness. Who wants to try to forecast if a cane off the east coast of Florida is about to undergo RI based on that quality of data below when recon is six hours away?

 

Exactly. This has major real world implications. Especially in the age of marine heatwaves and unprecedented RI. The way people react to a cat 2 and a cat 5 might mean not evacuating and potentially deaths. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Invest is up to 40%.. the wave is currently over the Yucatan, but should be going into the Bay of Campeche soon. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just started a thread for 91L. It's also worth watching the Gulf and SE Coast next week for some homebrew potential. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles and operational models show a trough dipping in the south leading to TC genesis toward the latter part of next week. That's a climatologically favored genesis method, in addition to being in a climatologically favored region for TC development this time of year. 

It's also basically the only part of the basin not the subtropics that's warmer than normal. 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just started a thread for 91L. It's also worth watching the Gulf and SE Coast next week for some homebrew potential. Both the GFS and Euro ensembles and operational models show a trough dipping in the south leading to TC genesis toward the latter part of next week. That's a climatologically favored genesis method, in addition to being in a climatologically favored region for TC development this time of year. 

It's also basically the only part of the basin not the subtropics that's warmer than normal. 

All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

[BarryStantonGBP]

12 minutes ago, GaWx said:

should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

In your dreams 

[GaWx]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

In your dreams 

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

[WxWatcher007]

37 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Not a dream. It would likely put a relative lid on instability in MDR if it’s warmer to the N keeping it less active there than otherwise would be. We’ll see if temp pattern persists and how active MDR ends up.

I agree. It looks like a western basin type of season…

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

All across the MDR SSTs are ~1C cooler than to the N! This if it persists should keep a relative lid on TCs in the tropics themselves this year.

A bit of a reverse-Atlantic tripole SST pattern, which at this time of the year has a pretty strong correlation with later in the season. I'm actually surprised that surface SSTs have such a strong correlation with hurricanes compared to other factors, but the most active years minus least active years show this clearly. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree. It looks like a western basin type of season…

So more landfalls RIP

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

This image really puts things in perspective of how small this tropical storm is in comparison with the Epac system.

Atlantic really struggling to produce anything meaningful while adding named storms.

[GaWx]

Up to 0.64 ACE for season to date

Storm Active Winds Pressure ACE
Tropical Storm ANDREA 18z Jun 21 to 12z Jun 25 35kt 1014mb 0.24

Tropical Storm BARRY 00z Jun 27 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.4

Season Total 18z Jun 21 to 00z Jun 30 40kt 1006mb 0.64

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Gulf or SE coast remains worth watching. The signal for genesis is still there with the GEFS focused in the Gulf and Euro focused off the SE coast. Either could be right. 

[pureet1948]

Subject: ECENS Outliers Showing Westward Gulf Track?

Hi all,

While most guidance keeps the potential system off the Southeast U.S. coast/Northeast Gulf drifting east or northeast, I noticed that 2 ECENS members are showing a westward track across the Gulf, with one potentially targeting the Middle Texas Coast near Freeport.

I understand these are long-range outliers, but given the consistent warm SSTs, a potentially retreating Southeast ridge, and the historical precedent (e.g., Alicia 1983), I'm curious what mechanisms might allow for such a westward solution—however low probability it may be.

Would appreciate thoughts on:

• Whether this is just ensemble noise or a signal worth watching,

• The steering setup that could support a westward drift into the western Gulf,

• Any past analogs or support from other ensemble systems (e.g., GEFS, ICON-EPS).

Thanks in advance—trying to distinguish a fluke from something that might trend.

[pureet1948]

10 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gulf or SE coast remains worth watching. The signal for genesis is still there with the GEFS focused in the Gulf and Euro focused off the SE coast. Either could be right. 

That’s a fair read. I’ve noticed that while the GEFS remains persistent with Gulf-side development, the Euro (both deterministic and EPS) has leaned more strongly toward a coastal low forming near the Carolinas or offshore of the Southeast U.S..

Interestingly, a couple of ECENS outliers now suggest a westward Gulf track, possibly reaching Texas or the western Gulf coast around July 5–7. While these are certainly fringe solutions, they do raise questions about the evolution of the ridge and potential for a retrograde motion if steering collapses or shifts. Could be a case where subtle mid-level features tip the balance one way or the other.

Still early, of course—but worth watching both domains closely. A lot hinges on where and when that initial low consolidates, and whether it gets caught in a trough or finds a path beneath the ridge.

[GaWx]

Per JB this morning for the N Hem this June:

“In the Northern Hemisphere, we have had the average number of named storms. But now look at the ACE statistic. We are less than 1/3. Never have we had an average ACE of only 2/storm in June The average in June is 6.5. It's boggling what is going on in the WPAC, where we are at 10% of average with over 10% of their ace done.”

—————-

and for the Atlantic basin specifically, he said this:

“The Atlantic naming were a complete joke. Isla Lobos where the so called center of Barry crossed had a half inch of rain and a gust to 22. Tampico had gusts to 31 and over 2 inches of rain and the center crossed close to them Andrea was a stratocu swirl But in a way I am glad they got named. the .6 between the 2 of them have established the all time record for weakest back to back storms at only .3 per storm”

[WxWatcher007]

I’m probably the biggest NHC naming defender here, but at least at the time it was named, Andrea was a joke. In the 24 hours or so before being named I recall that system being close to a TC, but when it was named it was little more than a swirl devoid of nearby convection.

Barry was slop, which is what you’d expect in June, but it was legitimate. Recon found a sharp wind shift, there was persistent convection, and eventually recon sampled TS force wind. It made landfall as a depression. You’re not going to get a ton of ACE or eye candy from a subtropics swirl and a low that was the beneficiary of BoC magic in June.