2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

 

[Boston Bulldog]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah about half of microwave imagery is gone as of Monday. It’ll have an immediate forecasting impact. 

 

Yeah this is a huge and totally unnecessary loss. RI forecasting in real time will take a major hit. While there are a few more microwave options potentially available, losing SSMIS will inevitably degrade hurricane forecasting skill. 

The hits keep coming

 

[andyhb]

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Science and education are two things you need an organized body for... you can cut the rest. They seem to be doing the opposite. 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, andyhb said:

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad.

Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

More data is always better. 

[andyhb]

25 minutes ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.

[Boston Bulldog]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

How has it improved predicted track accuracy?  I've seen zero improvement in that department.  That's what matters most out of anything.  Strength of storms they've been pretty accurate with for a few decades now even without microwave imagery.  

Track accuracy and cone narrowing from the NHC is probably the most noticeable improvement that has taken place in the past 20 years, take a look at what the cone looked like for Katrina when it entered the Gulf. Every bit of resolution for data matters immensely.

Microwave data for track accuracy with numerical modeling has also taken gigantic strides. Losing a reliable ability to place the exact center with high resolution (in the absence of in-situ radar and hurricane hunter data) will certainly have repercussions down the temporal dimension of outputs.

Intensity still remains the lowest skill forecast variable, which is no surprise given its stochastic nature. It will get so much worse without as frequent “under the hood” looks at the structure, especially as the observed increase in RI events globally continues.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]