Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Shocked that the NAM has more qpf than the GFS right now. 18zNAM Precip Shield is about 25 miles west (or more expansive) of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ian said Gfs initilzation is 4-6 mb too high of current obs buoys are measuring sub 1006 pressures off the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone Because it is displeasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 well if misery loves company, 18z rgem is worse for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 buoys are measuring sub 1006 pressures off the panhandle. That makes a Huge difference. That's why 06z was so great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Because it is displeasing? Please...Gfs as a short term model(1 day) is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 One word says it all HISTORIC of course I will be missing it I am in Milwaukee now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone pretty good agreement on the contours of qpf now tho with gfs/euro/nam.. so i dunno. i wouldnt be too worried about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh well. I was saying in our regional forum that if there was anywhere that had a chance to bust, its us. I'd wait for 0z before panicking. People in our area have been silly on this storm. The 18Z GFS still looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 wow... you kidding me? people need to relax again people that live in ground zero for this need to understand small changes in the track do not affect them much, but a 30 mile shift can greatly affect those on the back edge of heavy precip where the last 2 shifts of the GFS took them from 10" to 2". A small shift is a bigger deal to some based on location. I can understand their anxiety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based upon....what? The fact it's not as wet as it once was? The RUC , in general, is rather bad with its QPF amounts and placement. While the NAM is more useful within 36 hours, it's still not the model of choice most days. Winter recon impacts on the guidance should be more fully digested by the 00z runs. Wait and see. There's a reason why HPC stopped using 18z guidance in their day shift qpf package. =) DR I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 again people that live in ground zero for this need to understand small changes in the track do not affect them much, but a 30 mile shift can greatly affect those on the back edge of heavy precip where the last 2 shifts of the GFS took them from 10" to 2". A small shift is a bigger deal to some based on location. I can understand their anxiety. models usually have some trouble with the backedge though... more often than not it seems places near the edge do better than the qpf maps show. this is pehaps somewhat atypical of a storm but i wouldnt be flipping out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 again people that live in ground zero for this need to understand small changes in the track do not affect them much, but a 30 mile shift can greatly affect those on the back edge of heavy precip where the last 2 shifts of the GFS took them from 10" to 2". A small shift is a bigger deal to some based on location. I can understand their anxiety. You know as well as I do none of the models are really very good with predicting the back edge of precip. They were too far SE with the heaviest bands in every storm last winter. People worrying about each 10 mile drift left or right on the QPF plots are sort of insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone sometimes I wonder if you think saying something actually makes it true and can change reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 models usually have some trouble with the backedge though... more often than not it seems places near the edge do better than the qpf maps show. this is pehaps somewhat atypical of a storm but i wouldnt be flipping out yet. I am 99% sure a heavy band will set up west of DCA and they will do fine. The models always fringe them and then they get a mega-band and catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am 99% sure a heavy band will set up west of DCA and they will do fine. The models always fringe them and then they get a mega-band and catch up. I hope so, because that band you're talking about would be right over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z runs of the Gfs under 12 hours are ALWAYS drier and more south and east with big storms. That's a fact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z runs of the Gfs under 12 hours are ALWAYS drier and more south and east with big storms. That's a fact Are you sure? Can you back that fact up with evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You know as well as I do none of the models are really very good with predicting the back edge of precip. They were too far SE with the heaviest bands in every storm last winter. People worrying about each 10 mile drift left or right on the QPF plots are sort of insane. I agree 100 percent with what you and Randy just said, but at the same time we all know its natural to be nervous when your sitting on the edge and a fickle 20 mile shift means 8" or 1". If I had to bet based on actual current conditions I would say the models are shifting a little too far east right now while the low goes through its formative stages and will correct west again tonight some. But if I was going to be in Leesburg or Reston or Westminster I sure would be nervous waiting on the h5 to cut off and see how much the flow can back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run actually is better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am 99% sure a heavy band will set up west of DCA and they will do fine. The models always fringe them and then they get a mega-band and catch up. Often a band sets up rather far to the W or NW of these systems somewhere unexpectedly, sometimes it can even screw the areas further SE because it produces sinking motion over them...but this would be more typical to set up further northward up the coast in places like NW CT, interior SE NY, or NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are you sure? Can you back that fact up with evidence? I've been watching these runs for 10 years. I knew the nam would end up wetter and more NW than the Gfs before the day ended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Often a band sets up rather far to the W or NW of these systems somewhere unexpectedly, sometimes it can even screw the areas further SE because it produces sinking motion over them...but this would be more typical to set up further northward up the coast in places like NW CT, interior SE NY, or NE PA. I am sure I was only dreaming it each time it has happened down here in a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'd go with the nam/ruc/mm5 now. The Gfs usefulness is now gone Based upon....what? The fact it's not as wet as it once was? The RUC , in general, is rather bad with its QPF amounts and placement. While the NAM is more useful within 36 hours, it's still not the model of choice most days. Winter recon impacts on the guidance should be more fully digested by the 00z runs. Wait and see. There's a reason why HPC stopped using 18z guidance in their day shift qpf package. =) DR Hee Hee THEGREATDR says don't count any chickens until later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This run actually is better than 12z it's basically exactly the same except the qpf is a bit lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 it's basically exactly the same except the qpf is a bit lower Yep, makes jason's call look good, better than 6-8 or some of the higher amounts. I thought we might see it edge back wwrd. So much for my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I've been watching these runs for 10 years. I knew the nam would end up wetter and more NW than the Gfs before the day ended The NAM is notorious for having overdone QPF in the short term before these events on the 18 and sometimes 6 runs as I said earlier...often the 06Z runs tend to have a west bias too...I agree to an extent about the GFS....it seems to always cut amounts, sometimes severely within 6-18 hours before the event starts....I expect on the 00Z or 06Z runs its going to show greatly reduced QPF further on up the coast, reaching into NYC/PHL/NJ and eventually SNE...it often winds up over correcting itself to an extent as it usually is overdone 24+ hours out, but it seems to knock things down too much....I've seen it go from dropping 1.00 liquid 24 hours out to 0.50 or 0.60 6-12 out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, makes jason's call look good, better than 6-8 or some of the higher amounts. I thought we might see it edge back wwrd. So much for my thoughts. I would wait for 0z tonight when the models get another full set a data ingestion. THings sure look to be developing explosively down south right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, makes jason's call look good, better than 6-8 or some of the higher amounts. I thought we might see it edge back wwrd. So much for my thoughts. Anecdotally, the model trends seem to favor a slight bias to lower precip. amounts and/or more generous amounts but not much further west than western shores of the Bay. Simply put, take the most generous model(s) and trim by 30% except for NE New Jersey to Harrison, NY and NE toward Boston. 3 to 6 with the higher amounts east, seems safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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