Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,585
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Central PA Autumn 2024


Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And it was not even modeled 3-4 days ago.   Though the potential has been there for a week or more. 

Right. GFS had this thing sniffed out just after Helene but I think it vanished for a bit. There's an interesting little bit on the tropical thread in that the trend over the last few years has been to continue to intensify up until landfall. This one is being modeled to get a little bigger and throw the wind field outward while losing steam as we approach. I do fear for what may happen if that doesn't happen. 

Or I guess even if it does but not to the extent currently progged. Suppose this bastard hits 205-215 mph max sustained but weakens to something like... 165 mph max. 

What a disaster.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Right. GFS had this thing sniffed out just after Helene but I think it vanished for a bit. There's an interesting little bit on the tropical thread in that the trend over the last few years has been to continue to intensify up until landfall. This one is being modeled to get a little bigger and throw the wind field outward while losing steam as we approach. I do fear for what may happen if that doesn't happen. 

Or I guess even if it does but not to the extent currently progged. Suppose this bastard hits 205-215 mph max sustained but weakens to something like... 165 mph max. 

What a disaster.

Yea, the GFS has a small/weak tropical storm for several days then it leveled down into a flooding 1–2-foot rain situation before starting to ramp back up the last 3-4 days.  Not going to state what might happen until we get to later Tuesday indeed lots of bad possibilities right now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Listen, you & some others have run some things into the ground on here over the years. Let me have this one please.

Please don’t compare me with that dude!

I won’t stop with this… until snow map season starts, Lol!

Buddy boy, as we grow older...we learn when to pick battles, and when to die on the hill.  Me thinks there can be extreme stances on both sides of this particular "hill".  

If one looks at the qpf distribution and timeframe, it really doesnt lend a hand in your argument IMO.  OTOH, yes we live in a polarized era in many ways, and I'm sure that many alarmist do whatever they can to "influence" the perceived weather.  

The more meaningful assessment IMO is how we seem to do the "extremes" better than ever.  Dry for days and days, to rain for days and days....

Soil water content is a better indicator to who gets the D label and who doesnt.  Much of what we recieved has been in relatively short timespans, and was likely runoff, and not absorbed, and when we did get long duration...some of us got .05 in a few day total (KLNS data).

While i havent looked, I'm thinking it still is on the low side in the areas shown on the drought map.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, canderson said:

.08 rain overnight. 

.01 for me.  Car topper.

 

no matter how my grass looks... I'm just gonna say it....I need rain.  If memory serves, .05 in like an 8 day total for me in northern lanco.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

This bust of a hurricane season is quickly becoming less...busty. 

but if we use the drought argument.....natsomuch.

If we are grading by bust size, I'll give it an A+, B- when triple D's were the early call. (thinking cup size here for visual comparison).

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Or as my old man used to call it, "Douchebags Go to Lunch."

I love food, and that show.  I've heard some less than great things about Guy, but I'd toss back a pint w/ him anyday...and be my own judge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

This is the death storm to the Florida real estate market if it sends a massive surge up Tampa Bay then whacks Orlando

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Yeah but it makes Sea World an appropriate name. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...