Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Ensembles means should converge closer to the operational as we draw closer to an event in theory. I wouldn't worry about Ensembles moving east, since that is closer to the operational and they're just giving it more credibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snowing in Edison,NJ. AHHHHH Best XMAS ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NOT all of then region did RIB... isnt it like Lunch time for you dude ? DT- the only point i was making was that storm, although much different set up(it was a redeveloping Alberta clipper i believe), was that the forecast for this area was to get a decent hit and the models showed that, but it was a bit too late and the sharp cutoff was just sw of Philly and only coastal Delaware got snow this far south,.something similar- not exactly the same- COULD occur in the DC-BWI corridor if this storm is a bit later developing and further offshore than most models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 DT- the only point i was making was that storm, although much different set up(it was a redeveloping Alberta clipper i believe), was that the forecast for this area was to get a decent hit and the models showed that, but it was a bit too late and the sharp cutoff was just sw of Philly and only coastal Delaware got snow this far south,.something similar- not exactly the same- COULD occur in the DC-BWI corridor if this storm is a bit later developing and further offshore than most models are showing. No offense meant here... but this point is really really moot. You could say the same thing with EVERY storm. If every storm forms later and further offshore then there COULD be the same situation where further south gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NOT all of then region did RIB... isnt it like Lunch time for you dude ? I was visiting my then-girlfriend in our mutual adopted hometown that night--got a nice little snowfall out of it, while some friends in West Chester got pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That blob covering most of NJ...that seems to be where multiple models (GFS, NAM, JMA, etc.) believe that banding and thundersnow may set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS forecast winds and snow would seem to suggest blizzard warnings would be warranted on afternoon product issuance part of PHI and BOX CWA. On Utah U map, I basically double meters per second as a fairly close conversion to knots, so a barb being ten knots is a pretty good approximation. BTW, 70 mph winds about 2000' AGL in coastal New jersey suggests gusts to near that, as heavier snow could mix that down, IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Is this the new JMA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/major-snowstorm-on-the-way-with-blizzard-conditions-likely My snowfall map and prediction is on this link guys. Merry Christmas to everybody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro is rolling with a 1012mb low over the central FL panhandle at hr 12. @HR18...1006 low off GA/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GFS forecast winds and snow would seem to suggest blizzard warnings would be warranted on afternoon product issuance part of PHI and BOX CWA. On Utah U map, I basically double meters per second as a fairly close conversion to knots, so a barb being ten knots is a pretty good approximation. BTW, 70 mph winds about 2000' AGL in coastal New jersey suggests gusts to near that, as heavier snow could mix that down, IMHO. If I were forecasting this, I'd be thinking Winter Storm Warning (obv, if guidance holds)/Blizzard Watch for coastal/eastern NJ, LI, NYC to be issued with the overnight package. Blizzard has such a public connotation that the NWS is and should be loath to use it. As the event begins and winds pick up, I'd upgrade to warnings where appropriate, but I'd mention in the disco that Blizzard Warnings may be indicated as far west as PHL depending on track/intensity. Further north, the same would apply for NNJ, NYC, LI, southern CT, RI, and eastern MA, just delayed by a package (morning package Sunday rather than evening package Saturday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 12z Euro is rolling with a 1012mb low over the central FL panhandle at hr 12. Not to be confusing... but tombo has it lower? hr 12 has a sub 1008 low over the know of the fl panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not to be confusing... but tombo has it lower? He perhaps has more detail on his maps...sry for any confusion. I'm just counting contours. I'll let you stick w/ his play-by-play to avoid confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 He perhaps has more detail on his maps...sry for any confusion. I'm just counting contours. I'll let you stick w/ his play-by-play to avoid confusion. I didn't mean to do that. I was just wondering what the difference was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I didn't mean to do that. I was just wondering what the difference was Not a problem...but it'll make for a cleaner read through the thread instead of double posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 30 sub 992 992 low bout 100 miles east of orf...lgt to mod precip dc to nyc south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 36 sub 984 starting to get captured bout 100 miles east of ac...hvy precip from balt to boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Total precip map is almost spot-on with 0z, with some 10-20 mile variances here and there. Only exception is Cape Cod, whose QPF got cut by about .25-.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro looks good for 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Total precip map is almost spot-on with 0z, with some 10-20 mile variances here and there. Only exception is Cape Cod, whose QPF got cut by about .25-.5. Even for upstate NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FGEN at all levels Nice Theta-E over NJ Philly and Jest NW of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro about the same for down here. .25 line shifted west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Euro about the same for down here. .25 line shifted west a bit. Hey Phin, haven't checked. How much does it give Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 slower than GFS with bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rok Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FGEN at all levels Nice Theta-E over NJ Philly and Jest NW of NYC Oohfa, can you say forcing...claps of thunder abound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hey Phin, haven't checked. How much does it give Baltimore? Around .50, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Around .50, I think. forecast for snow mainly tomo afternoon seems late too me looking at the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro qpf will be generally underdone now that we are in crunch time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 euro qpf will be generally underdone now that we are in crunch time. STRONGLY AGREE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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