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2024-2025 La Nina


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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only thing I will say is that we were already past that theorized 2015 "tipping point" associated witht he uber el nino.....which is probably why even that seasn managed the uber-warm February in advance of the SSW.

But I agree with the premise that 2017 is not a good analog.

Oh yea. There was warming for sure at that point but not at the uber level it’s at now

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@GaWxLarry, please link that RONI forecast produt again?

Thanks.

 I’ve seen it only once, in the following Ben Noll tweet. This tweet was based on the May run of the valuable C3S ensemble of worldwide major models. Hopefully he’ll tweet the June update. I can’t find the direct link to C3S RONI.

https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1793235394219434190

 This is the image from that tweet. Is this from official C3S output or is this instead Ben improvising by taking the C3S ONI output (which the green line matches) and then assuming how much lower RONI would be vs ONI? Regardless, this is suggesting that RONI will be just over 0.5 C cooler than ONI through at least Oct, which seems reasonable. So, the prediction is for a -1.25ish RONI in Oct and still dropping slowly:

IMG_9683.jpeg.4a5db91d1b410932e05049e17f154b14.jpeg

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

October, 2017 did have the amplified MJO 4-6. HOWEVER, there were other big red flag clues that it was going to be a decent winter…You had a -QBO, a moderate east-based La Niña, a neutral PDO, a solar minimum, AGW wasn’t out of control at that point, the AMO wasn’t super positive yet, the IOD wasn’t overpowering and you had a non volcanic stratosphere. It all culminated in the record SSWE in mid-February which resulted SPV annihilation and massive AO/NAO blocking in March

I think the concept of what qualifies as a good or great La Niña winter has been diminishing over time as the winters have been steadily warming. For the posters around NYC Metro 95-96 was the gold standard in terms of wall to wall cold and snow from November into early April. This was followed by our first global temperature spike in 98. So while 10-11 was still an amazing winter, the snow cut off about a month too early to challenge 95-96 around NYC. Not as cold as 95-96 was from November into April but no complaints due to the epic snowfall from late December to late January. Then the next big global temperature spike in 15 and our next multiyear La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. The 17-18 winter was very snowy but not up to the levels we saw back in 10-11 around NYC. March was really special though especially out east on Long Island. This was the first time we had an 80° reading in February around NYC and the record warmth allowed the decent cold anomaly from after Christmas into early January to essentially get erased. Our better La Niña winter in 20-21 featured the best snowfall outcome of the 2020s so far. But it was also our warmest winter around NYC with so many -AO days along with a -5 or daily AO reading. So even with such great blocking which could be likened to a weaker reflection of 10-11, we still finished a little above normal against an already warmest new 91-20 climate normals period. Plus we had the very warm Christmas flood cutter and flash melt which damaged the ski resorts. 

The warmer La Niña winter pattern began to emerge in 05-06. Great snowfall outcome around NYC but the January warmth was so strong the winter finished above normal. This was followed by the milder 07-08 La Niña and less snow but not so bad by modern day poor La Niña standards. Then the 11-12 La Niña winter with a combination of lack of snow and warmth. But still not bad as 22-23 for warmth and lack of snow. 16-17 had great blizzards but was still near a 40° winter around NYC.  21-22 was split with a good January for snow and cold in an otherwise sea of warm. 

So the better La Niña winters have been warming since 95-96 with a decline in snowfall. The poorest outcome  La Ninas have also been warming and loosing snowfall. So 22-23 was about  as bad as we have seen for both warmth and lack of snow. We have never seen any winter with a December -AO averaging under -2.000 put up such poor metrics for snow and cold. 

Now that we have seen another big global temperature spike and the 3rd since the late 90s, I am not sure what a good La Niña winter will look like after the most recent temperature spike. But I am also concerned what a poor outcome winter La Niña outcome will look like in the against this new higher global temperature baseline with the record global 23-24 global temperature rise. 

I would be happy if any of the potential La Niña winters in this new grouping put up better snowfall numbers than 22-23 did. But don’t have much expectation that the record 9 consecutive warmer winter streak in the Northeast will end based off of anything I am seeing now in regard to the La Niña and -PDO early development. Will check in after October to see if we get some early snowfall MJO  clues based on past La Niña Octobers.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

I think the concept of what qualifies as a good or great La Niña winter has been diminishing over time as the winters have been steadily warming. For the posters around NYC Metro 95-96 was the gold standard in terms of wall to wall cold and snow from November into early April. This was followed by our first global temperature spike in 98. So while 10-11 was still an amazing winter, the snow cut off about a month too early to challenge 95-96 around NYC. Not as cold as 95-96 was from November into April but no complaints due to the epic snowfall from late December to late January. Then the next big global temperature spike in 15 and our next multiyear La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. The 17-18 winter was very snowy but not up to the levels we saw back in 10-11 around NYC. March was really special though especially out east on Long Island. This was the first time we had an 80° reading in February around NYC and the record warmth allowed the decent cold anomaly from after Christmas into early January to essentially get erased. Our better La Niña winter in 20-21 featured the best snowfall outcome of the 2020s so far. But it was also our warmest winter around NYC with so many -AO days along with a -5 or daily AO reading. So even with such great blocking which could be likened to a weaker reflection of 10-11, we still finished a little above normal against an already warmest new 91-20 climate normals period. Plus we had the very warm Christmas flood cutter and flash melt which damaged the ski resorts. 

The warmer La Niña winter pattern began to emerge in 05-06. Great snowfall outcome around NYC but the January warmth was so strong the winter finished above normal. This was followed by the milder 07-08 La Niña and less snow but not so bad by modern day poor La Niña standards. Then the 11-12 La Niña winter with a combination of lack of snow and warmth. But still not bad as 22-23 for warmth and lack of snow. 16-17 had great blizzards but was still near a 40° winter around NYC.  21-22 was split with a good January for snow and cold in an otherwise sea of warm. 

So the better La Niña winters have been warming since 95-96 with a decline in snowfall. The poorest outcome  La Ninas have also been warming and loosing snowfall. So 22-23 was about  as bad as we have seen for both warmth and lack of snow. We have never seen any winter with a December -AO averaging under -2.000 put up such poor metrics for snow and cold. 

Now that we have seen another big global temperature spike and the 3rd since the late 90s, I am not sure what a good La Niña winter will look like after the most recent temperature spike. But I am also concerned what a poor outcome winter La Niña outcome will look like in the against this new higher global temperature baseline with the record global 23-24 global temperature rise. 

I would be happy if any of the potential La Niña winters in this new grouping put up better snowfall numbers than 22-23 did. But don’t have much expectation that the record 9 consecutive warmer winter streak in the Northeast will end based off of anything I am seeing now in regard to the La Niña and -PDO early development. Will check in after October to see if we get some early snowfall MJO  clues based on past La Niña Octobers.

I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. 

Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency.

Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. 

There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Screenshot 2024-06-13 020915.png

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19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Only thing I will say is that we were already past that theorized 2015 "tipping point" that accompanied that uber el nino.....which is probably why even that season managed the uber-warm February in advance of/during the SSW.

But I agree with the premise that 2017 is not a good analog.

It’s funny you mentioned that 2017 is not an analog…just saw a tweet saying 2017 is an analog for this winter lol Not really sure what some people actually look at when they make their “analog” lists

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1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

It’s funny you mentioned that 2017 is not an analog…just saw a tweet saying 2017 is an analog for this winter lol Not really sure what some people actually look at when they make their “analog” lists

IDK....literally the only thing I can say is that it was modest La Nina, but other than that....not so much. That season is a poor match in every respect.

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

IDK....literally the only thing I can say is that it was modest La Nina, but other than that....not so much. That season is a poor match in every respect.

Absolutely agree. Other than this one possibly being a moderate event, it’s awful. That one was entirely east-based, the QBO, PDO, solar, AMO etc., etc. are all real bad matches

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5 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

I do remember this winter, was the first winter I remember having severe weather in February (actually had nickel size hail falling and accumulate on the ground) to getting a 18" snowstorm a month later. Was definitely a roller coaster and that seems to be the case going forward at least in terms of what happens around the mid atlantic. We have really really warm periods or really really cold periods (nothing seems too sustained) and really snowy periods or nothing at all and flooded by rainstorm after rainstorm. 

Again looking locally only, we do not seem to be able to properly keep the ground frozen for a long period of time anymore. We do get a hard freeze but when temps in the middle of winter don't have a sustained low below 20* for more than a few days it becomes rather hard to keep a solid frozen ground. This rather warm low also makes it a bit difficult sometimes with these systems that have us right along the boundary. What use to be the rain/snow line around 95 has definitely pushed back further NW compared to say just 15 years ago. Much more in the way of mixing situations around my locale when we would manage just to be able to squeak out an all snow event. Just a few things I have noticed more so over the last probably 10 or so years. This is not to say we have never experienced this just that it seems to be happening of more frequency.

Working at BWI for almost the last 9 years we have had pretty bad snowfall ever since the 15-16 winter and the only reason we got something decent then was because of that monster snowstorm in January of 2016. The last close to average snowfall was 2018-19 with 18.3". We have had quite a few extremely low snowfall years of recent (from about 2000 area on) when they would occur maybe once a decade before. 

There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here.

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf

Screenshot 2024-06-13 020915.png

The crazy part about that 50 inches of snow in February 2010 is that almost all of it took place during the first 10 days of the month, with a tenth of an inch of snow on the 15th, and then the snow just suddenly stopped for the season. At that point in the season, Baltimore had more snow than Syracuse (and any other city) in the Golden Snow Globe contest in 2009-10: https://goldensnowglobe.com/baltimore-storms-past-syracuse-for-the-lead/

https://goldensnowglobe.com/stwc-vol-2-update/

Baltimore was passed by Syracuse on Valentine's Day and never looked back: https://goldensnowglobe.com/stwc-vol-2-outcome/

50 inches of snow in 10 days and 80 inches of snow is something that will almost likely never happen again in Baltimore.

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7 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

There does tend to be a noticeable decline in snowfall after these heat spikes have occurred, but unfortunately snowfall can have rather wild swings down here.

My guess is that our snowfall peaked along the 1-95 corridor from BWI to BOS during the 2010s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s so far have seen a steep decline. So we are going to need to see some big snowfall improvements next 5 years in order to avoid the 2020s becoming the lowest snowfall decade following the highest decade in the 2010s. 
 

Baltimore 

80s….18.5”

90s….17.7”

00s….18.0”

10s….24.1”

20s….7.7”

Philadelphia 

80s….20.6”

90s….18.5”

00s…20.8”

10s….31.9”

20s….9.7”

New York City

80s….19.7”

90s…24.4”

00s…28.0”

10s….37.9”

20s…14.2”

Boston

80s…32.8”

90s…49.9”

00s…45.6”

10s….53.0”

20s…26.1”

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Just now, bluewave said:

My guess is that our snowfall peaked along the 1-95 corridor from BWI to BOS during the 2010s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s so far have seen a steep decline. So we are going to need to see some big snowfall improvements next 5 years in order to avoid the 2020s becoming the lowest snowfall decade following the highest decade in the 2010s. 
 

Baltimore 

80s….18.5”

90s….17.7”

00s….18.0”

10s….24.1”

20s…7.7”

Philadelphia 

80s….20.6”

90s….18.5”

00s…20.8”

10s….31.9”

20s….9.7”

New York City

80s….19.7”

90s…24.4”

00s…28.0”

10s….37.9”

20s…14.2”

Boston

80s…32.8”

90s…49.9”

00s…45.6”

10s….53.0”

20s…26.1”

I would have said that I wouldn't be at all suprised by that even if you had sked me 5 years ago....independent of CC just due to simple regression.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that our snowfall peaked along the 1-95 corridor from BWI to BOS during the 2010s. The first 5 seasons of the 2020s so far have seen a steep decline. So we are going to need to see some big snowfall improvements next 5 years in order to avoid the 2020s becoming the lowest snowfall decade following the highest decade in the 2010s. 
 

Baltimore 

80s….18.5”

90s….17.7”

00s….18.0”

10s….24.1”

20s….7.7”

Philadelphia 

80s….20.6”

90s….18.5”

00s…20.8”

10s….31.9”

20s….9.7”

New York City

80s….19.7”

90s…24.4”

00s…28.0”

10s….37.9”

20s…14.2”

Boston

80s…32.8”

90s…49.9”

00s…45.6”

10s….53.0”

20s…26.1”

I'm almost perfectly between Philly and NYC.  Not much change so far.  I lucked out on some storms in the 20s so far I guess, especially this past season getting to pretty much average snowfall when NYC and Philly were pathetic.  What is Allentown?

80s  27.5

90s  27.15

00s  32

10s  35.9

20s  28.75

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27 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm almost perfectly between Philly and NYC.  Not much change so far.  I lucked out on some storms in the 20s so far I guess, especially this past season getting to pretty much average snowfall when NYC and Philly were pathetic.  What is Allentown?

80s  27.5

90s  27.15

00s  32

10s  35.9

20s  28.75

Allentown also saw a steep decline from the 2010s into the 2020s. So it’s another station which had a fantastic snowfall outcome during the 2010s. State College had its peak during the 1990s. But the first 5 seasons of the 2020s so far are way down like all the other stations.

Allentown

80s….31.0”

90s….29.8”

00s….32.1”

10s….39.7”

20s…22.9”

State College 

80s….38.8”

90s….55.1”

00s….39.9”

10s…..38.1”

20s….27.4”

 

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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CPCoff_ENSOprobs_062024.thumb.png.0b6f4c0f4e685787570d588064d5ccba.png

I don’t think “is there going to be a La Niña” is a question anymore. The question is whether the official ONI (trimonthly) ends up weak or moderate. Moderate is my guess right now. The RONI may hit strong levels

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think “is there going to be a La Niña” is a question anymore. The question is whether the official ONI (trimonthly) ends up weak or moderate. Moderate is my guess right now. The RONI may hit strong levels

I don't think it really matters whether ONI is weak or not...I expect a moderate impact event. RONI sneaking into marginally strong territory shouldn't profoundly alter that, either.

What this means is that the extra tropical atmosphere should have some relevence in terms of dictating the predominate hemispheric pattern this winter, since ENSO will not be overwhelming. However, I also expect the extra tropical atmosphere to largely be congruent with the tropics, anyway, so we may still end up with a rather robust la Nina outcome in terms of sensible weather.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Allentown also saw a steep decline from the 2010s into the 2020s. So it’s another station which had a fantastic snowfall outcome during the 2010s. State College had its peak during the 1990s. But the first 5 seasons of the 2020s so far are way down like all the other stations.

Allentown

80s….31.0”

90s….29.8”

00s….32.1”

10s….39.7”

20s…22.9”

State College 

80s….38.8”

90s….55.1”

00s….39.9”

10s…..38.1”

20s….27.4”

 

If it wasn't for 95/96, the 90s would have hovered around 18" or less of snow for the decade for a lot of cities closer to NY.  Thankfully that season happened, but that one season really skewed the reality of the decade being bad for snow.  

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17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If it wasn't for 95/96, the 90s would have hovered around 18" or less of snow for the decade for a lot of cities closer to NY.  Thankfully that season happened, but that one season really skewed the reality of the decade being bad for snow.  

1992-93 and 1993-94 were good seasons as well. 1993 had the famous blizzard in mid-March and 1994 had a cold wave in January as well as above average snow in February.

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32 minutes ago, FPizz said:

If it wasn't for 95/96, the 90s would have hovered around 18" or less of snow for the decade for a lot of cities closer to NY.  Thankfully that season happened, but that one season really skewed the reality of the decade being bad for snow.  

The 95-96 and 93-94 winters made that decade. If it wasn’t for those 2 winters, the 90’s would have been just as horrid as the 80’s, which only had the Megalopolis blizzard in ‘83 

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 95-96 and 93-94 winters made that decade. If it wasn’t for those 2 winters, the 90’s would have been just as horrid as the 80’s, which only had the Megalopolis blizzard in ‘83 

That is usually how it works in the mid atlantic since you average so little snowfall on an annual basis.....often times one storm comprises most of a season's snowfall and often that season will significantly increase the seasonal average for the decade. 

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 95-96 and 93-94 winters made that decade. If it wasn’t for those 2 winters, the 90’s would have been just as horrid as the 80’s, which only had the Megalopolis blizzard in ‘83 

Here at PHL, 1981-82 to 1984-85 was actually a good stretch. January 1982, 1984, and 1985 all had below zero cold shots and above average snow. (1/19/1994 was the only time in the almost 40 years since that we got a cold shot as bad as January 82, 84, 85.) Also, 82 and 83 had April snowstorms, and 84 had a cold and snowy March.

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1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

1992-93 and 1993-94 were good seasons as well. 1993 had the famous blizzard in mid-March and 1994 had a cold wave in January as well as above average snow in February.

92-93 was a little above average here at 34" (ave is 29"), 1993/94 was good at 54".  But having the all-time best season skewed the decade big time since most years really stunk (7 out of 10 years below 20").   95/96 had 74" here, then was followed by a 4 year average 13", then one nice season, then one of the top 5 worst, so 5 out of 6 were terrible years.  2 of the past 7 years here had 50"+, way above average, but 2 have totally stunk.  The other 3 were below ave (but still 20"+). We've had runs of terrible seasons many times in the past.  Too early to say what the next 6 years will bring, maybe it will be a top 3 least snowy decade, who knows? 

 

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Here at PHL, 1981-82 to 1984-85 was actually a good stretch. January 1982, 1984, and 1985 all had below zero cold shots and above average snow. (1/19/1994 was the only time in the almost 40 years since that we got a cold shot as bad as January 82, 84, 85.) Also, 82 and 83 had April snowstorms, and 84 had a cold and snowy March.

 The 80s actually averaged slightly more here than the 90s snow wise.   

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Heat in the old Mexican Highlands has now been fully destroyed, and then some. Highs will be in the mid-60s (5-10 below average if it verifies) there at approximately the same time frame places as far north as Boston could see mid-90s.

June 2021 locally had both near-all time record warm highs and near-all time record cold-highs locally (103 and 67 respectively). A similar thing happened in June 2022 (101 and multiple days in the low 70s). This month has already seen several days hit 100 with another day only hitting 72. Both 2021/2022 had highs in the low 70s / upper 60s late June, which is actually super cold here (20-25 below average), while 100-103 is only 8-12 above average even in early June.

We're not really in La Nina conditions for what it's worth. Nino 3.4 is still warm west of 140W. 

I read a paper a long time ago that said cold water by New Zealand is like a teleconnection for a wet/dry winter in the Southwest (NV, AZ, CA, UT - notably not New Mexico or Colorado) but it has to be cold there July-Sept to be reliable. Notably, July-Sept of 2018, 2019 were not cold by NZ and were not wet in the SW US. Years like 1997 and 2004 were much colder (though not frigid) as were other years like 2016/2022/2023 to a lesser extent. Also 2017, which was absurdly dry here, was quite warm too by NZ). The effect is diminished by NM/CO as a lot of our moisture is from storms getting stuck in the mountains for 1-3 days, not from extra storms or a better storm path per se.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180613101946.htm Screenshot-2024-06-13-6-22-48-PM

figure 5

The New Zealand Index (NZI) teleconnection depends on a western Pacific ocean–atmosphere pathway. a Negative SST anomalies (blue shading) in the NZI region cascade in the northern hemisphere through a late summer interhemispheric atmospheric bridge and are maintained by air-sea coupling until the following winter. The SST anomalies affect the atmospheric pressure in the US west coast and strengthen the regional jet stream which brings more winter storms in the SWUS; b Late-summer positive SST anomalies (red shading) in the NZI region deflect the jet stream to the north, leading to dry conditions over the SWUS

Fig. 1

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Also, past nine years for snow. Substantial variation within seasons though.

Screenshot-2024-06-13-8-50-40-PM

Once we started to see higher solar conditions around 2021, snow switched to ~incredible volume in the interior West in March again, which is a long-term signal I've noticed. March has more or less single-handily saved the Rio Grande water supply in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 offsetting either failed monsoon moisture or poor moisture winters.

Screenshot-2024-06-13-9-06-57-PMScreenshot-2024-06-13-9-07-20-PMScreenshot-2024-06-13-9-07-44-PMScreenshot-2024-06-13-9-08-04-PM

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3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Also, past nine years for snow. Substantial variation within seasons though.

Screenshot-2024-06-13-8-50-40-PM

 

Extra interesting map from my perspective because only area E of Miss. River with >200% of mean snowfall is narrow strip from E FL Panhandle to Charleston, SC. That was entirely due to one very rare storm, the SE coastal storm of Jan of 2018, the biggest since Dec of 1989. Keep in mind that most winters in that area have no measurable snow/sleet.

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