CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 already initialized http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_000l.gif 6z http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_006l.gif 0z Let the fun begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 heights a little higher in the east hr 6 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_500_006l.gif vs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_500_012l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 hr 15 nam is digging more...higher hgts along east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Heights are backed 50-75 miles further west along the coast this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 big changes with the northern shortwave this run.... MUCH less strung out and more consolidated.... almost starting to get its own little spokes (really like shotwaves tend to have these little spokes in an s shape... dont know the technical reason why) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Becoming significant changes now at 21 hrs along the east coast, the height field is backing significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNJwx Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Slower and a hair further west through 27hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thats much better at the surface... the 0Z run was just wacky. There's precip falling where is should be in central VA and central NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the entire longwave pattern is about 50-75 miles west of the 00 Z GFS at hour 18.... WC ridge and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snow up to about the Mason Dixon line in 24 hrs per the sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 we are in left exit region and right entrance region of a developing dual jet structure 24 hrs. this structure was not developing quite yet at 30 hrs on 00z. Precip will break out over us quicker on this run almost certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 700 mb rh at 24 suggests alot of dry air on western flank. 30 probably wont look very good, atleast in VA. Looks like everything is more positive tilt than the GFS, albeit alittle furth west. Maybe slower? surface low also looks strung out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 700 mb rh at 24 suggests alot of dry air on western flank. 30 probably wont look very good, atleast in VA. Looks like everything is more positive tilt than the GFS, albeit alittle furth west. Maybe slower? surface low also looks strung out again the RH field given the slightly better 850 setup still looks funky to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Not much difference @ 36 hours from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the RH field given the slightly better 850 setup still looks funky to me. ya and by 30 everything goes kaput again, just like 0z... NAM refuses to budge looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 It's getting captured at 42 hrs...slower than last run..and more precip into NJ/NY/LI as NJWinter suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Hmm no real improvement surprisingly now by 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The base of the trough appears broader on this run, so despite an increase in the height fields out in front, it leads to a similar solution as 00z. Also, it appears a few hours slower than the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is keeping the best PVA to the northeast...which is why the sfc low follows. It's not closing off that 5h low and ripping the vorticity back to the N and NW as fast as other runs...the sfc low loves where PVA (positive vorticity advection)...and in this case its a big deal because the vort max is so strong after it rounds the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is having major issues during the formative stages of cyclogenesis. Its having issues with the handoff of energy during the phase and just looks a little off. I suppose it is possible that there will be issues and not a "smooth" transition as the low starts to get going but more likely the NAM is having some kind of issues here. It just looks wrong. Has a really nice band of precip initially and then just loses it as it tries to get the coastal going. Redevelops everything later but OTS for the mid atlantic. Weird run again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is keeping the best PVA to the northeast...which is why the sfc low follows. It's not closing off that 5h low and ripping the vorticity back to the N and NW as fast as other runs...the sfc low loves where PVA (positive vorticity advection)...and in this case its a big deal because the vort max is so strong after it rounds the base. Yeah, it also appears to have a lot of noise vorticity out ahead of the vortmax that appears to be aiding in the elongated look perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is having major issues during the formative stages of cyclogenesis. Its having issues with the handoff of energy during the phase and just looks a little off. I suppose it is possible that there will be issues and not a "smooth" transition as the low starts to get going but more likely the NAM is having some kind of issues here. It just looks wrong. Has a really nice band of precip initially and then just loses it as it tries to get the coastal going. Redevelops everything later but OTS for the mid atlantic. Weird run again. So you'd go with a consensus of GFS and EURO over the NAM at this stage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, it also appears to have a lot of noise vorticity out ahead of the vortmax that appears to be aiding in the elongated look perhaps? is it convectively induced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yeah, it also appears to have a lot of noise vorticity out ahead of the vortmax that appears to be aiding in the elongated look perhaps? There's always worry about "noise" witht he NAM. Who knows if its right or not, but you have to get that PVA back further NW than what it's showing to get the sfc low and dynamics for qpf (which is all anyone cares about no matter what the sfc low does) back into those regions of the Mid-Atlantic. The forecast to me in the Mid-Atlantic is about as hard as it gets because I could see them getting a huge storm also not getting much more than some light snow. I think once up to NYC area and northeastward is a bit safer but that is assuming this current suite of models is right. The models have been having all sorts of problems with this setup if it wasn't already obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 NAM is keeping the best PVA to the northeast...which is why the sfc low follows. It's not closing off that 5h low and ripping the vorticity back to the N and NW as fast as other runs...the sfc low loves where PVA (positive vorticity advection)...and in this case its a big deal because the vort max is so strong after it rounds the base. correct me if Im wrong but if you remove that stupid feedback error wouldn't the low (approximately where I have the Red L) be closer to where I have the black L. I don't know how many times I've seen that feedback error of too much vorticity escaping... what causes that anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 what on earth is the NAM doing between hrs 12-18? That low center flares up off the coast? Maybe I'm missing something, if so, please rip me a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an absolute New England slaughtering...and my QPF in northern coastal NJ is at .75. Over all though it held serve to 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 At least it seems the slp is a hair west of 0z despite convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 correct me if Im wrong but if you remove that stupid feedback error wouldn't the low (approximately where I have the Red L) be closer to where I have the black L. I don't know how many times I've seen that feedback error of too much vorticity escaping... what causes that anyway? No the best PVA will be well northeast of where you have it...its not just PVA either...thats where the best lift is in the mid-levels...but the sfc low is usually not horribly far off there...the sfc low wants the best area of upper level divergence and WAA. That will be well northeast of where your black low is and closer where the red low is. The NAM is correct where the low is based on 5h...but the question is whether 5h is right...which it might not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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