NJwinter23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 There's always worry about "noise" witht he NAM. Who knows if its right or not, but you have to get that PVA back further NW than what it's showing to get the sfc low and dynamics for qpf (which is all anyone cares about no matter what the sfc low does) back into those regions of the Mid-Atlantic. The forecast to me in the Mid-Atlantic is about as hard as it gets because I could see them getting a huge storm also not getting much more than some light snow. I think once up to NYC area and northeastward is a bit safer but that is assuming this current suite of models is right. The models have been having all sorts of problems with this setup if it wasn't already obvious. Couldnt have said it any better Will. Though with the phasing about to take place imminent on the WV loop, I would doubt that this jumps out to sea in the next run or anything drastic like that nfor the NYC neward areas youve mentioned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an absolute New England slaughtering...and my QPF in northern coastal NJ is at .75. Over all though it held serve to 00z Yeah it doesn't get much better for central/eastern SNE than what most guidance is showing right now for this type of system. But that has been discussed in the NE subforum, I don't want to turn this into a New England discussion. People get angry fast these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 No the best PVA will be well northeast of where you have it...its not just PVA either...thats where the best lift is in the mid-levels...but the sfc low is usually not horribly far off there...the sfc low wants the best area of upper level divergence and WAA. That will be well northeast of where your black low is and closer where the red low is. The NAM is correct where the low is based on 5h...but the question is whether 5h is right...which it might not be. i think thats my point... the area i've circled.... assume there is no PVA there and that is a feedback error... then would my low position be more correct? maybe not exactly there, but closer to the GA coast.. on further examination.... i agree i drew it too far SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 i think thats my point... the area i've circled.... assume there is no PVA there and that is a feedback error... then would my low position be more correct? maybe not exactly there, but closer to the GA coast.. on further examination.... i agree i drew it too far SW I think you are mistaking the H5 Abs Vorticity for PVA. Best PVA is going to be where there is none, but soon will be, if that makes sense. I would place the low somewhere off the coast of SC, given the diffluent flow and vortmax rounding the base of the trough ready to move N/NE on that plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I think you are mistaking the H5 Abs Vorticity for PVA. Best PVA is going to be where there is none, but soon will be, if that makes sense. I would place the low somewhere off the coast of SC, given the diffluent flow and vortmax rounding the base of the trough ready to move N/NE on that plot. Yes but its tearing energy apart only 12hrs in. I'm no met, so I may be mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This is an absolute New England slaughtering...and my QPF in northern coastal NJ is at .75. Over all though it held serve to 00z Looks like Lee Goldberg might have been right with his 6-12" for NYC and Long Island.... close to one foot out here hopefully lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM was doing strange things off the Carolina coastal region last week with the storm as well...I don't know how it ultimately verified down there but it was very correct in SNE with the heavier snow they got which most models had more east.....the NAM often can fail to throw precip far enough back to the west and northwest into the cold side of low pressure systems...it seems to be doing that to an extent at hours 36 and 42 on the 06Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The NAM was doing strange things off the Carolina coastal region last week with the storm as well...I don't know how it ultimately verified down there but it was very correct in SNE with the heavier snow they got which most models had more east.....the NAM often can fail to throw precip far enough back to the west and northwest into the cold side of low pressure systems...it seems to be doing that to an extent at hours 36 and 42 on the 06Z run. Thanks SG-- looks like WSW and Gale Watches were just issued for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 out to 21.. gfs still looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Pressure drops in the gulf looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like we have another nudge west. precip shield is farther west into VA. GFS looking excellent this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 edit from post above.....i was speaking of hr 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this might even be more wrapped up than 0z down south wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Occludes right off the NJ coast at 48.. very Euro-esc from a few days ago if I recall correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reale WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks! Pretty much the entire MA from DC East all the way into SNE have 1"+ thru 54 as it slowly winds down... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WOW...this is the wettest run for us in the dc area since the euro was going bonkers a few days ago! snowing a decent amount at 42....still coming down and have managed to pick up between .75-1 of precip already! wake up folks! lol u do realize its 5am christmas morning... we are crazy being up, not them for being asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orangewx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 48 and dc is nearing its 1.00". still snowing by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Oh what a hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 this might even be more wrapped up than 0z down south wow may have to start worrying about dryslots and rain/snow lines for the immediate coast if this trends any further west. beautiful run here though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 60HR Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 lol u do realize its 5am christmas morning... we are crazy being up, not them for being asleep If this pans out..it makes up for march 2001. This is like the reverse. Nam is garbage. Sometimes it's high res can really throw it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 FOOKING HARDCORE. Phenomenal run-- 1 to 2 feet along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 60HR Precip. From PA south that maps looks just like last years 3 HECS. Difference this time is New England joins the party big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 This isn't much different than the 12z euro run from wedensdat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this pans out..it makes up for march 2001. This is like the reverse. Nam is garbage. Sometimes it's high res can really throw it off after last winter, any snow I get in the next 5 years I consider gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 so no panels for 54 hour on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 If this pans out..it makes up for march 2001. This is like the reverse. Nam is garbage. Sometimes it's high res can really throw it off thats exactly what I was thinking-- if this pans out, its what 3/01 was supposed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Can I say with all this uncertainty, I do know one thing, Central Park and Newark will definitely NOT break their daily snowfall records for 12/26!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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