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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty good shift on the GFS  MESOS are going to win this I think

No, no …isn’t this a shit sandwich? We were just told that by a pessimistic poster a few minutes ago.
 

This thing is trending still at 24 hrs out….but the one almost a week from now on Saturday is being written off by some peeps already lmao. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.b0244b96fb06d19a3419b27d075732bf.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh42_trend.thumb.gif.b0244b96fb06d19a3419b27d075732bf.gif

I think part of the problem is that the majority this event is being driven by low level instability along that very intense bclinic axis. 

Remember we’re dropping in an arctic air mass/boundary and it’s gonna stall in that area …there’s a lot of Explosive potential there. The problem is is that the global models probably don’t have the lower level resolution while waiting on upper level mechanics …

Doesn’t explain why being closer to it in time suddenly makes that all visible but… We’ve seen this in the past where mesos score around these intense gradients. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

GEM also came well NW as well. 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh42_trend.gif

Yeah, I was looking at that… What’s funny about that, even though it came northwest it was still a decent hit before relative to what’s on the table…

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think part of the problem is that the majority this event is being driven by low level instability along that very intense bclinic axis. 

Remember we’re dropping in an arctic air mass/boundary and it’s gonna stall in that area …there’s a lot of Explosive potential there. The problem is is that the global models probably don’t have the lower level resolution while waiting on upper level mechanics …

Doesn’t explain why being closer to it in time suddenly makes that all visible but… We’ve seen this in the past where measles score around these intense gradients. 

Lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

This thing has a huge upside to it. But like Four seasons and I were just discussing it kind of lacks the mid and upper level mechanics to get to that top shelf. But the upshot is there, because there is so much explosive potential along/just off eastern seaboard; it really is incredible how much potential is there but not being tapped. Evidenced by spinning up a low end moderate event out of weak triggers - I mean there is some jet going on.

But the indexes flagged this for a reason so here we are. Fascinating 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't really care what the GEM has, But seeing the GFS make a shift..........

It's fine that the GFS made a shift to the NW as you get closer to the event. GFS did it with the other7-8 storm also but never brought it over the Cape and Islands. 

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jaf

jaf

Posted
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4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

roughly, although if something like RGEM comes to fruition we may see a stripe of 5-8 across the interior of MA and CT, wouldn't be surprised at all. 

I'll take it.  Hoping for something more late in the week, but we have this storm to get through first.

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