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Arctic Outbreak: PNW/Northern Rockies/Plains

tacoman25

By tacoman25,
in Central/Western States

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cmichweather

cmichweather

Posted
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I'll be pushing our forecast staff tomorrow at the morning briefing on the temps...these extreme temp situations are really the only time where you can massively crush the models.

nice another redtag for the northern plains/northwest region. I'm sure you and baroclinic instability can have a grand ol time talking about mountain wave dynamics and mtn/valley flows. We'll see who ends up with the lowest temp this season laugh.gif

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

Posted
Posted

nice another redtag for the northern plains/northwest region. I'm sure you and baroclinic instability can have a grand ol time talking about mountain wave dynamics and mtn/valley flows. We'll see who ends up with the lowest temp this season laugh.gif

If there is anyone on here who wants to talk mountain dynamics and terrain meteorology with me, I would love it!

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cmichweather

cmichweather

Posted
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If there is anyone on here who wants to talk mountain dynamics and terrain meteorology with me, I would love it!

lol if i didn't come from michigan and didn't ignore froude numbers and mountain dynamics during meso dynamics i'd help out i just don't have any experience with that sort of flow, mountains freak me out coming from michigan.

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Srain

Srain

Posted
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Updated HPC Prelim discussion is painting an interesting scenario regarding the models and the Upper Air feature lagging in the SW next week...

...UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS...

A CHANGE IN CONTINUITY IS PREFERRED FROM THE OVERNIGHT PROGS AS

06Z GFS HAS BECOME MORE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND PRIOR MODEL

RUNS HOLDING THE SOUTHWESTERN TROF WESTWARD OF OVERNIGHT MODEL

PROGRESSION. CONTINUITY AND A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST WOULD ALSO

SLOW THE TROF DOWN. LATEST MODEL RUNS AT ANY TIME FROM DAY 6 AND

ONWARD ARE NOT NECESSARILLY CORRECT AND A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST

PERFORMS BETTER. IN THIS CASE THEY HOLD THE TROF WESTWARD AND

SLOWER. IN ADDITION A PATTERN CHANGE IS UNDER WAY WITH

RETROGRESSION OF THE EPAC STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY AND PROGRESSION

OF HIGHER HTS INTO GREENLAND AND DAVIS STRAITS AND EVENTUALLY NRN

CANADA. THIS MORE OFTEN THAN NOT OCCURS WITH A CORRESPONDING SFC

WEATHER REFLECTION. IN THIS CASE ENOUGH ENERGY IS SWINGING

EASTWARD WITH THE TROF TO INDUCE A FRONTAL WAVE EJECTING NEWD

ALONG THE SFC FRONT INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH

A SIGNIFICANT LOW IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

THE MORE EXTREME SOLUTIONS OF DROPING LOWER HTS OR EVEN A CLOSED

LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUES-WED ALTHOUGH EARLIER DISCOUNTED HERE

YTDA AND TDA BASED ON ENS MEANS AND OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS MUST

STILL BE CONSIDERED AND WATCHED AS PER LAGGED AVERAGES AND LATEST

06Z GFS. THE EXTREME SOLUTION OF THE 00Z CMC IS NOT DISSIMILAR TO

THAT OF YTDAS 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF. THE RESULT OF THESE SOLUTIONS

WOULD BE NEAR OR RECORD COLD TEMPS WITH DEPARTURES OF BELOW 40

DEGREES FROM NORMAL WITH MID LEVEL HT STANDARDIZED HT ANOMALIES IN

THE 3.5 TO 4.5 FROM NORMAL RANGE. THIS THREAT IS ALSO SEEN BY THE

06Z GFS WHICH IS OUR PREFERRED SOLUTION FOR TODAY.

...OVERALL WEDNESDAY TRAVEL DAY AND THANKSGIVING DAY OUTLOOK...

MILD AND BREEZY WITH EASTERN CONUS WITH FRONTAL SHOWERS WED.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF GULF COAST WED NIGHT WITH COOLER

DRIER CONDITIONS WHILE CONTINUED MILD AND BREEZY WITH SHOWERS

ALONG THE EAST COAST THANKSGIVING DAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE

EASTERN SEABOARD LATE THURSDAY CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY

FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS.

SNOW...MAINLY LIGHT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES

REGION AND UPPER MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY. QUITE COLD THROUGH THE

PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY. WINDY AND COLD

BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SOUTHWARD THRU THE SRN

PLAINS. SNOW MAY CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW

SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS TEH UPPER MS VALLY/MIDWEST FRIDAY

OTHERWISE BASICALLY DRY AND QUITE COOL EAST OF THE ROCKIES

BECOMING WARMER OVER THE WEST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS.

FRACASSO/ROSENSTEIN

±

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

This event just looking colder as it gets closer. 12z EURO output...anyone want to guess the coldest temp we'll see in the lower 48 from this event? It will almost certainly be in Montana.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a -15 to -20F reading or two up there. EURO is definitely more gung-ho on the 96-120 hour system blowing up and dragging cold air east and south than the GGEM was this morning, hence that fairly big difference on the 850 thermal fields. Given the gradients we're playing around with, I'm a little more inclined to agree with the stronger storm there.

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tacoman25

tacoman25

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Wouldn't be surprised to see a -15 to -20F reading or two up there. EURO is definitely more gung-ho on the 96-120 hour system blowing up and dragging cold air east and south than the GGEM was this morning, hence that fairly big difference on the 850 thermal fields. Given the gradients we're playing around with, I'm a little more inclined to agree with the stronger storm there.

I think it will be more like -25 to -30. Perhaps a spot or two even colder.

Very cold air has already seeped into northern MT....Cut Bank is down to -11 currently!

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tacoman25

tacoman25

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Latest model trends have gone back to shifting the coldest air further west, with the coldest anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. However, it still looks as though the Dakotas, MN, and eventually Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska will be very cold next week.

Cut Bank, MT made it down to -15 last night.

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Mallow

Mallow

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Posted

Latest model trends have gone back to shifting the coldest air further west, with the coldest anomalies in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. However, it still looks as though the Dakotas, MN, and eventually Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska will be very cold next week.

Cut Bank, MT made it down to -15 last night.

:thumbsup:

post-300-0-03550300-1290202883.gif

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tacoman25

tacoman25

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Some daily temperature anomalies so far...

Great Falls, MT: -31

Cut Bank, MT: -34

Havre, MT: -29

Billings, MT: -18

Much of MT of will continue to see -25 to -35 departures over the next 4 days. -15 to -25 departures should move into the Dakotas, northern WY, and much of WA/OR/ID.

Here are my guesses for the coldest temperatures that each state will see.

MT: -32

ID: -20

WA: -12

OR: -15

WY: -23

ND: -17

SD: -12

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Hoosier4Caster

Hoosier4Caster

Posted
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-1/-19 day in Cut Bank today. Tomorrow and Tue will probably be even colder....NWS has a forecasted low of -26 tomorrw night. And that's with snow. Temps should remain below 0 until Wednesday afternoon.

It's beautiful, as long as the wind is not blowing. right now it's -4 here in Great Falls with the next shot of snow just starting. Should get a few inches, up to 4 or 5 max.

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Mallow

Mallow

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They're getting snow in the Puget Sound region today. They'll probably pick up a few inches.

Here in Portland, it's a 37°F rain with gusty southerly winds. Crap, crap, and more crap.

The Arctic front will blast through this evening, though... and there's still a chance we could see some snow showers behind it. I still feel like we'll have at least a half inch over all of the northern Willamette Valley, with more falling in lucky areas (up to 2-3" in spots).

Then it's gonna get COLD. Lows in the 10s in November are quite rare here, but we'll probably have at least one morning approaching that, either Tuesday morning or Wednesday morning.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
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Wow, near blizzard conditions right now in the Seattle area. NWS is going with 24/14 for them tomorrow, which is absolutely nuts for them Nov. 22.

Spokane, WA is under a Blizzard Warning, extremely rare for them. Temps expected to fall well below 0 tomorrow night.

Yeah...and Elko, NV is expected to hit -10 on Thanksgiving morning, which is close to an all-time November record low.

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Mallow

Mallow

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We had a dusting of snow in an awesome snow band that, about 5 miles to my east, produced thundersnow. It has ended for now, and I probably won't get anymore (though temperatures are plummeting and all the rain we had is making for very icy road conditions).

There is a batch of snow about 40 miles north of me headed south. It will probably fizzle before it gets here, but I'll be watching it, that's for sure!

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RIC Airport

RIC Airport

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Looks like SEA officially picked up 2.5" and I see they had quite a few hours of "blowing snow". I do have friends in the area claiming around 4" fell while others say they got up to 6".

I really hope this is a start to a great winter for the NW. Here in another 3 years, I will strive to return to living there. :thumbsup:

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tacoman25

tacoman25

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Looks like SEA officially picked up 2.5" and I see they had quite a few hours of "blowing snow". I do have friends in the area claiming around 4" fell while others say they got up to 6".

I really hope this is a start to a great winter for the NW. Here in another 3 years, I will strive to return to living there. :thumbsup:

I know a lot of people out there as well, and it sounds like 4-8" totals were common in areas just east of Seattle. SEA is further west/south, so they saw less snowfall than much of the metro area.

LOL at 3:20 of that video...you can see the bus passengers kind of freaking out inside as it lost control and headed towards the telephone pole.

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