wncsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Its cold more often that not the first Saturday in April for some reason (trout season). I have seen it as low as 16 that morning with snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 hours ago, GaWx said: Is the 12Z GFS on crack? Inquiring minds want to know. It wouldn't be the first time...nor the last!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 On 3/25/2024 at 2:54 PM, wncsnow said: Its cold more often that not the first Saturday in April for some reason (trout season). I have seen it as low as 16 that morning with snow on the ground. Easter weekend golfing in Pinehurst many years ago and the temps were cold enough on the tee box to cause a heavy frost delay and crack some hand bones when you made contact with that little white ice cube. It can definitely happen. Oh the irony if we could squeak out a trace of snow for a good portion of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Well, what once was looking somewhat dry, has been reversed. GFS looking pretty consistently wet over the run as opposed to a few days ago. 2-3 inches accross the board and isolated higher amounts pushing 4 to 6 including the smokies and the NE part of NC. That does include todays weather as well, and tomorrow for the eastern portions, but still pretty consistent fronts or LP's coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 I guess it’s more of a now cast situation but the heaviest rains so far today seem much further west then models expected. We’ve only had 0.36” here but some places around chapel hill have seen 1.5”+ so far. We’ll have to see where the heavy bands setup overnight but sometimes those precursor bands let you know where they’ll want to setup in a stalled front situation like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 I thought middle and Eastern NC was supposed to be extremely dry? Must have missed something....Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 That's a ton of rainfall for the Eastern parts. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 9 hours ago, Met1985 said: I thought middle and Eastern NC was supposed to be extremely dry? Must have missed something.... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Pretty significant bust of a rainfall forecast. The heaviest rain ended up west of the US 1 corridor. 2-3” west of wake. We have 1.55” (about 3/4”-1” below the forecast) and areas east of here have only .5”-1” so 2-3.5” below what was forecast. There will be some light additional rain but the flood threat looks to have passed and the only warning from this event is in chapel hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 The 6Z GFS for Apr 4-6 is the coolest since the 6Z of two days back for the SE as a whole. Dewpoints are quite low. Great for outdoors. Frost would be possible in especially some of the colder low lying areas well inland on Apr 5 due to light winds, mainly clear skies, and dewpoints in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Pretty significant bust of a rainfall forecast. The heaviest rain ended up west of the US 1 corridor. 2-3” west of wake. We have 1.55” (about 3/4”-1” below the forecast) and areas east of here have only .5”-1” so 2-3.5” below what was forecast. There will be some light additional rain but the flood threat looks to have passed and the only warning from this event is in chapel hill I am up to 1.96" and still raining. Still below what was expected but we are getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 47 minutes ago, yotaman said: I am up to 1.96" and still raining. Still below what was expected but we are getting close. New Bern did well but the 95 corridor really busted. Forecast was 3-5” and that area is generally under 1.5”. Still good rains, I’m not saying this was a dry event for eastern NC, but a flood watch and 3-5” forecast is aggressive for what actually occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Checking in from Vermont, how are you all doing my friends?Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Checking in from Vermont, how are you all doing my friends? Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 The next strong cold front will bring ahead of it convection into the SE mainly Tue night into Wed. Severe potential chance is highest in N GA though even that isn’t too high. After the front goes through, much cooler dominates the rest of the week. The coldest lows will be mainly in the mid 30s north to low/mid 40s over S SC/S GA/N FL. Some frost will be possible early Fri and Sat mornings where it gets down into the mid 30s though winds may stay up enough to keep it limited even in those areas. Marginal freezes will be limited to the mountains. Highs will be great for outdoor activities with mainly upper 50s to mid 60s GA/SC/NC and low 70s N FL together with low RHs, which will increase the fire danger Thu-Sat afternoons. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted April 1 Share Posted April 1 Not bad, the warm sunny weather is making me not too jealous of the snow headed your way. I have made peace with summer and hope for some good thunderstorms this springWhat snowSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 Regarding just GA/NC/SC/FL: Look out for potential tornadoes tonight in much of GA, especially W portion, as well as in the W portions of NC/SC/N FL. The overall threat is higher than it appeared on Sunday when I last posted about this. Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Regarding just GA/NC/SC/FL: Look out for potential tornadoes tonight in much of GA, especially W portion, as well as in the W portions of NC/SC/N FL. The overall threat is higher than it appeared on Sunday when I last posted about this. Eastern AL/western GA overnight... In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection will increase tonight across AL/GA. A surge of upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band ahead of the synoptic cold front. An isolated strong tornado or two will be possible. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html There's a thread for it where all of the storms and potential tornadoes related to this event should be posted: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Man the 6z GFS is really trying to show a rough week next week across the deep south. CMC with some support as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Looks to be another cold blast in about 11 days. More frost and cold in April, yay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Looks to be another cold blast in about 11 days. More frost and cold in April, yay.. So far it has been a warm spring averaged out. April will likely end up warmer than normal, too. These intermittent cooldowns can’t keep up with the warm periods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, GaWx said: So far it has been a warm spring averaged out. April will likely end up warmer than normal, too. These intermittent cooldowns can’t keep up with the warm periods. April is shaping up to be cooler than March was. But with the huge warm anomalies it's hard for the cold to even it out. It also causes flowering trees and shrubs to put out 2 to 3 weeks before average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 This has been an awesome spring weather wise. Other than the dry month and pollen hell, temps have been very comfortable and we’ve had enough rain to feel good going into the summer. There hasn’t been any abnormal frosts or cold and though a cool down is expected (we were almost at 90 the past 2 days!) I don’t see anything screaming a ton of cold wedgy days. Definitely has not followed the pattern of last few springs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 Latest NWS discussion for Jackson, MS is below. pretty good consensus accross most of the deep south the next couple of days, stormy, and lots of rain: (There's not a region specific forum for the deep south as they're included in the SE forum, but do we have any members in here from that region?) This current track of the upper low is a more favorable track for severe weather across our area. The surface low will track across Arkansas into Kentucky during this same time frame. Storms will be ongoing to our west, along a pre-frontal trough Wednesday morning and move across our area through the afternoon into the evening hours. Strong deep layer shear along with MU capes of 1000-1500 j/kg and mid level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km will be present on Wednesday. SPC has already issued an enhanced risk for most of the area and a moderate risk for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. All modes of severe are possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail and strong tornadoes. The current timing looks like it will be from late Wednesday morning into late Wednesday evening before the front shifts east into Alabama. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a risk on Wednesday also, with total additional rainfall accumulations ranging from around 6-7 inches across the Delta to around 2-4 inches in the Pine Belt region through Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall potential is already being advertised in our graphics and social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Pretty massive bust on the morning rain from Wadesboro west until you get closer to the foothills. The big area of moderate to heavy rain that models and mets called for that looked to basically form out of nowhere from the main area of precip to the east never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionCountyNCWX Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Looks like the next couple of weeks are going to be roughly an average spring pattern. Some warmer days, some colder. Precip looks to be consistently between 1.5 inches to two inches through most model runs as we get into the beginning of May, though I'm sure some will be from thunderstorms so that will probably be some variation among locations. Rumblings have started that as we get closer to the middle of May we really start to really warm up and dry out, so we need all the rain we can get now if that's true. On a random note, I've really gotten into watching Ryan Hall's severe weather livestreams lately, especially on higher Tornado activity days. It can be decently entertaining if you haven't sat down and watched one yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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