January 2024

[Dark Star]

Fog building in here in Garwood NJ (central Union County).

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are just fortunate that these monthly maximum temperature extremes since 2015 have occurred closer to the cool season. Not sure if the power grid is up to the record demand 110° during the summer would produce. That’s roughly what a February 2018 and October 2019 magnitude warmth would look like in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0

is the 80 in DC the all time January record for them?

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are just fortunate that these monthly maximum temperature extremes since 2015 have occurred closer to the cool season. Not sure if the power grid is up to the record demand 110° during the summer would produce. That’s roughly what a February 2018 and October 2019 magnitude warmth would look like in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0

110 in the summer can never happen here, we have a maritime climate here in the summer lol

We can handle the occasional 100-102 okay I think, I've never had a power outage during a heatwave.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

What is really remarkable about DC hitting 80 today is this is over 3-1/2 wks. ahead of the earliest 80 degree day on record - 2/21/2018. The average 1st 80 day over the entire POR back to 1872 is 4/5. Since 2000 that average date is 3/25.

DC has only recorded (4) 80 degree days during the month of FEB, just wow

wow so this is the January record

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Dulles hasn't quite got there yet, 79 degrees thru 1:40

Yeah but Dulles is way out in the suburbs.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

43 and cloudy here lol

the 80 would be much nicer

43 is meaningless for anything fun

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are just fortunate that these monthly maximum temperature extremes since 2015 have occurred closer to the cool season. Not sure if the power grid is up to the record demand 110° during the summer would produce. That’s roughly what a February 2018 and October 2019 magnitude warmth would look like in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0

Eventually our luck with these north-based Bermuda highs and ridges that drive in S winds and the worst heat overshoots north will end and we'll torch on W and WNW flow again. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

The earliest 80 degree days at PHL & Central Park are 3/8 & 3/13 respectively. 

and 85 at Central Park is almost as early.... I believe Central Park hit 85 or higher on 3/15/1990? We had a string of three straight days in the mid 80s in mid March 1990, that's when we had the really long summers that started in March and ended in September lol

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Eventually our luck with these north-based Bermuda highs and ridges that drive in S winds and the worst heat overshoots north will end and we'll torch on W and WNW flow again. 

Hopefully soon, because that will mean lower humidity!

Low humidity 100 degree heat is great running weather!

 

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully soon, because that will mean lower humidity!

Low humidity 100 degree heat is great running weather!

 

I just got heat stroke imagining your comment. Too funny how people differ, I don’t run but only hike below 60 degrees. Anything warmer I get on the treadmill. Nov to April is my hiking season, lol.

To be fair I’m way different from most and probably a bit mad, but yeah! 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are just fortunate that these monthly maximum temperature extremes since 2015 have occurred closer to the cool season. Not sure if the power grid is up to the record demand 110° during the summer would produce. That’s roughly what a February 2018 and October 2019 magnitude warmth would look like in July. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2019	96	0
2	1941	93	0
3	1949	92	0

Was October 2019 the same one it hit 95 at JFK?

We had a heat index of 100 that afternoon lol

That has to be the latest heat index of 100 or temperature of 95 at JFK on record.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I just got heat stroke imagining your comment. Too funny how people differ, I don’t run but only hike below 60 degrees. Anything warmer I get on the treadmill. 

To be fair I’m way different from most, but yeah! 

I think because I used to spend a lot of time in the SW when I was little and it's fun to go running in the morning with really low humidity.  The nights were also cool and comfortable!

 

[donsutherland1]

Today was another day ruled by clouds, mist, drizzle and light rain in the New York City and Newark areas. Temperatures were confined to the lower and middle 40s. At Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE, the mercury rose into the lower 50s.

Farther south, it was a whole different season. The thermometer soared into the upper 70s and even 80°. Washington, DC reached 80°, setting a January monthly record. That was also its earliest 80° or above temperature on record (old record: February 21, 2018).

High temperatures in parts of the Mid-Atlantic area included:

Baltimore: 78°
Charlottesville, VA: 80° (old record: 74°, 1950)
Georgetown, DE: 73°
Norfolk: 77° (tied record set in 1950)
Richmond: 78°
Salisbury, MD: 75° (old record: 73°, 1950)
Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 70°, 1967) ***New January record***
Wallops Island, VA: 76° (old record: 64°, 2017) ***New January record***
Washington, DC: 80° (old record: 79°, 1950) ***New January record***

Even with temperatures hanging on in the lower and middle 40s, overall readings were milder than the seasonal average. The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots appear likely.

As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

A storm will bring additional rain to the region later this weekend into early next week. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -2.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.658 today.

On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.354 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.586 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal).

 

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1

 

 

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was another day ruled by clouds, mist, drizzle and light rain in the New York City and Newark areas. Temperatures were confined to the lower and middle 40s. At Philadelphia and Wilmington, DE, the mercury rose into the lower 50s.

Farther south, it was a whole different season. The thermometer soared into the upper 70s and even 80°. Washington, DC reached 80°, setting a January monthly record. That was also its earliest 80° or above temperature on record (old record: February 21, 2018).

High temperatures in parts of the Mid-Atlantic area included:

Baltimore: 78°
Charlottesville, VA: 80° (old record: 74°, 1950)
Georgetown, DE: 73°
Norfolk: 77° (tied record set in 1950)
Richmond: 78°
Salisbury, MD: 75° (old record: 73°, 1950)
Sterling, VA: 79° (old record: 70°, 1967) ***New January record***
Wallops Island, VA: 76° (old record: 64°, 2017) ***New January record***
Washington, DC: 80° (old record: 79°, 1950) ***New January record***

Even with temperatures hanging on in the lower and middle 40s, overall readings were milder than the seasonal average. The remainder of January will likely wind up generally warmer than normal with the exception of perhaps a transient shot of cold. No strong Arctic shots appear likely.

As a result, January will wind up as a warmer than normal month and Winter 2023-24 will become yet another warmer than normal winter in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The generally mild conditions could continue into the first week of February with only brief interruptions.

A storm will bring additional rain to the region later this weekend into early next week. The rain could end as a period of wet snow in New York City. Accumulating snow is likely well north and west of New York City and across central New England and in higher elevations.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.92°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event has recently peaked and will continue to fade.

The SOI was -2.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.658 today.

On January 24 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.354 (RMM). The January 23-adjusted amplitude was 2.586 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 36.6° (2.9° above normal).

 

Don a small point, was the high at DCA 80 or 81?  I saw a tweet that said it was 81? And did Dulles get any higher than 79?

 

[tmagan]

DCA in their reports had a heat index listed because the air temperature hit 81 degrees Fahrenheit. The heat index was the same as the air temperature though because of the 'relatively' low dew point temperatures.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don a small point, was the high at DCA 80 or 81?  I saw a tweet that said it was 81? And did Dulles get any higher than 79?

 

The final high was 80. The tweet was based on the value of 80.6. Sometimes, such values are off by a degree or so.

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The final high was 80. The tweet was based on the value of 80.6. Sometimes, such values are off by a degree or so.

It makes me wonder sometimes if actual weather records are kept to a degree or to the nearest tenth of a degree.  Most of our personal weather stations keep track of temperatures to the nearest tenth of a degree.

Here's where it can create issues--

If my weather station records a low of 32.4 should that count as a freezing day? The low was technically above freezing-- because freezing is exactly 32.0

How does the NWS handle such issues? Do they round the temperature down to 32 or is a low of 32.4 considered a day on which it did not reach freezing?  Likewise does a day with a high of 89.5 get called a 90 degree day or not?  I always assumed that 32.4 is rounded down to 32 and 89.5 is rounded up to 90?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, tmagan said:

DCA in their reports had a heat index listed because the air temperature hit 81 degrees Fahrenheit. The heat index was the same as the air temperature though because of the 'relatively' low dew point temperatures.

I remember we had a heat index of 100 here when it hit 96 on October 2nd (I think it was in 2018?) and that was on the south shore of Long Island lol

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes me wonder sometimes if actual weather records are kept to a degree or to the nearest tenth of a degree.  Most of our personal weather stations keep track of temperatures to the nearest tenth of a degree.

Here's where it can create issues--

If my weather station records a low of 32.4 should that count as a freezing day? The low was technically above freezing-- because freezing is exactly 32.0

How does the NWS handle such issues? Do they round the temperature down to 32 or is a low of 32.4 considered a day on which it did not reach freezing?  Likewise does a day with a high of 89.5 get called a 90 degree day or not?  I always assumed that 32.4 is rounded down to 32 and 89.5 is rounded up to 90?

 

 

I prefer Celsius for that reason. Records are kept by tenths of degrees.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I prefer Celsius for that reason. Records are kept by tenths of degrees.

Thanks Don, so does the NWS actually keep temperature records in 0.1C increments and the conversion to F is what results in the rounding errors? My weather station does the same thing, I noticed it's actually measuring in 0.1C increments and the F is a conversion and not an actual exact measurement.

 

[uofmiami]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It makes me wonder sometimes if actual weather records are kept to a degree or to the nearest tenth of a degree.  Most of our personal weather stations keep track of temperatures to the nearest tenth of a degree.

Here's where it can create issues--

If my weather station records a low of 32.4 should that count as a freezing day? The low was technically above freezing-- because freezing is exactly 32.0

How does the NWS handle such issues? Do they round the temperature down to 32 or is a low of 32.4 considered a day on which it did not reach freezing?  Likewise does a day with a high of 89.5 get called a 90 degree day or not?  I always assumed that 32.4 is rounded down to 32 and 89.5 is rounded up to 90?

 

 

Yeah it's a big pet peeve of mine.  We have the technology now to be more precise using F.  Of course, C is more accurate but good luck moving our country over to metric.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, so does the NWS actually keep temperature records in 0.1C increments and the conversion to F is what results in the rounding errors? My weather station does the same thing, I noticed it's actually measuring in 0.1C increments and the F is a conversion and not an actual exact measurement.

 

Not that I am aware of. I have seen some physical records and they are all in Fahrenheit.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah it's a big pet peeve of mine.  We have the technology now to be more precise using F.  Of course, C is more accurate but good luck moving our country over to metric.

Yeah we always lose something in the conversion lol.  I can tell our weather stations measure in 0.1C increments and convert to F so the precision isn't 0.1F but it could be if the manufacturers wanted it to be.

 

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Yeah it's a big pet peeve of mine.  We have the technology now to be more precise using F.  Of course, C is more accurate but good luck moving our country over to metric.

as somebody that uses both scales for work, I don’t think centigrade is more precise than Fahrenheit at all. Quite the opposite if you actually utilize decimal places with Fahrenheit.

 

Not that I’m advocating for the United States system. But most weather forecasts throughout the world are done using Celsius without a decimal point, and it’s a lot less precise than anything we have in the United States, because each degree covers a much larger interval

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not that I am aware of. I have seen some physical records and they are all in Fahrenheit.

ah okay so if the low was 32.4F on NWS instrumentation at, say NYC, that wouldn't be considered a low of freezing for that day? and likewise if the high was 89.5 that would be considered a 90 degree high on that day, Don?

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

as somebody that uses both scales for work, I don’t think centigrade is more precise than Fahrenheit at all. Quite the opposite if you actually utilize decimal places with Fahrenheit.

 

Not that I’m advocating for the United States system. But most weather forecasts throughout the world are done using Celsius without a decimal point, and it’s a lot less precise than anything we have in the United States, because each degree covers a much larger interval

Yep, I see that on my weather station too, because when the temperature goes up or down there are "jumps" that correspond to 0.2F (but it's actually 0.1C measurements that are being converted to F).... once in awhile there is a change of only 0.1F but it only happens at certain numbers....and these just happen to be going from a change of 0.2C to 0.3C over the previous whole integer conversion from C to F.

That doesn't sound so clear lol so let me illustrate.

By whole integer conversion I mean when a whole integer C reading converts to a whole integer F reading.

Let's take 0C = 32F as our example.

so a change of 0.1C = a change of 0.18F or 32.2F when rounded to the nearest tenth

a change of 0.2C = a change of 0.36F or 32.4F

a change of 0.3C = a change of 0.54F or 32.5F

a change of 0.4C = a change of 0.72F or 32.7F

a change of 0.5C = a change of 0.90F or 32.9C

you get my point lol

Now notice the change of going from 0.2C to 0.3C

If you round the F to the nearest tenth 0.36F rounds to 0.4F and the 0.54F rounds to 0.5F

So in this case the next highest increment going up from 32.0F is 32.2F (because it's really increasing from 0.0C to 0.1C and that's an increase of 0.18F so in F this gets rounded to a 0.2F increase or 32.2F).... the ONLY time we see a 0.1F increase is going from 0.2C to 0.3C in that range because the actual value of the conversion is going from 32.36F to 32.54F, so the weather station will show it going from 32.4F to 32.5F.  This formula works for every conversion I have seen on my weather station, the only time I see a 0.1F increment being used is when the conversion calls for it (a change of 0.2C to 0.3C from a whole integer conversion value of C).

 

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

as somebody that uses both scales for work, I don’t think centigrade is more precise than Fahrenheit at all. Quite the opposite if you actually utilize decimal places with Fahrenheit.

 

Not that I’m advocating for the United States system. But most weather forecasts throughout the world are done using Celsius without a decimal point, and it’s a lot less precise than anything we have in the United States, because each degree covers a much larger interval

That's what I wondered about when London hit that historic triple digit temperature over the summer, what was the exact value in F lol

 

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

as somebody that uses both scales for work, I don’t think centigrade is more precise than Fahrenheit at all. Quite the opposite if you actually utilize decimal places with Fahrenheit.

 

Not that I’m advocating for the United States system. But most weather forecasts throughout the world are done using Celsius without a decimal point, and it’s a lot less precise than anything we have in the United States, because each degree covers a much larger interval

It’s not more precise, but the weather records are maintained in tenths of degrees. That virtually every other country uses it is also a benefit. 

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

110 in the summer can never happen here, we have a maritime climate here in the summer lol

We can handle the occasional 100-102 okay I think, I've never had a power outage during a heatwave.

 

It almost happened in 2010 and 2011. But those years had droughts  in the East. We have been very wet since then. So probably not possible without a drought. Remember, October 2019 had a flash drought which boosted our area to mid 90s. We have a much higher population and electric demand than areas of the US that typically experience 110°+. So they might start rolling blackouts to preserve the grid until demand drops off enough. 
 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	108
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	108
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	107
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	107
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	107
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	106
NY	MOLLOY CERCOM	COOP	105

 

Data for October 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Highest Max Temperature
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	96
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	95
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	95
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	95