Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I know I took a break at the right time when I return and the chat is focused on Kamu's shrinking snow pile, honeybees, and sunflower seeds/millet/wild bird food. Nothing has changed from the thought I posted last week. Tantalizingly close tease 12th-15th (still think more wet than white, could be wrong). Pattern change happens at HL....stj becomes active and kicks a wave under us (suppressed?) 18th-20th. Bigger shortwave in the stj moves east after the 21st and will likely be the first legit threat for a juiced southern storm 23rd give or take. Then weeklies Continue the look into the first part of March with maybe a pattern-ending large threat as the calendar flips...give or take a couple days....but that is wayyyy out in fantasy land. Biggest takeaway for now....patience still. Not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 In other news as atmospheric boredom continues on the east coast, Reed Timmer surfs the atmospheric river in California 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I know I took a break at the right time when I return and the chat is focused on Kamu's shrinking snow pile, honeybees, and sunflower seeds/millet/wild bird food. Nothing has changed from the thought I posted last week. Tantalizingly close tease 12th-15th (still think more wet than white, could be wrong). Pattern change happens at HL....stj becomes active and kicks a wave under us (suppressed?) 18th-20th. Bigger shortwave in the stj moves east after the 21st and will likely be the first legit threat for a juiced southern storm 23rd give or take. Then weeklies Continue the look into the first part of March with maybe a pattern-ending large threat as the calendar flips...give or take a couple days....but that is wayyyy out in fantasy land. Biggest takeaway for now....patience still. Not over yet. 384 hrs away from another great run at 384 hrs. Keep fighting the good fight! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Since 2000 using the 1991-2020 average temperature for December through February which is 32.8 degrees here in Chester County - we have seen 10 winters that have averaged below normal temps.... but none have been below normal since the DFJ of 2015 - winters with below normal DJF have been 2000/2001/2003/2004/2005/2009/2010/2011/2014/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 In comparing the NCEI average post observation temperature adjustments applied to the actual recorded averages recorded by the NWS Chester County Coop data show the average temperature data was adjusted downward every single year from 1895 through 2004 or for 110 consecutive years. The greatest adjustments were reductions in average temperatures of 2.76 degrees in 1945 / 2.69 degrees in 1943 /2.62 degrees in 1942 / 2.58 degrees in 1951. Conversely. In the 18 years since 2005 every year has been adjusted upwards with the exception of 2019 with the greatest adjustments upward to temperatures being applied to 2018 +1.87 degrees and 2005 with a +0.66 degree adjustment. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/time-series/PA-029/tavg/ytd/12/1895-2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 It's been good to see the sun for a somewhat extended period and my obs for highs the past couple days have been mainly mid 40s (45/46/45) with lows in the upper 20s - mid-30s (35/29/30). This morning the radiational cooling and dry air got me much colder, where so far my low has been 27. Currently 27 with dp 15. Looks like a torchy weekend ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Sunny skies should be the rule through Thursday. Chillier today with temps remaining in the 30's but warming trend starts tomorrow topping out well into the 50's by Saturday. Shower chances increase on Sunday night and much colder air appears likely with even some wintry weather chances next week. Records for today: High 66 (2008) / Low 6 below (1895) / Precipitation 3.00" (1896) / Snow 12.3" (2010) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: It's been good to see the sun for a somewhat extended period and my obs for highs the past couple days have been mainly mid 40s (45/46/45) with lows in the upper 20s - mid-30s (35/29/30). This morning the radiational cooling and dry air got me much colder, where so far my low has been 27. Currently 27 with dp 15. Looks like a torchy weekend ahead. Wiggum criteria for 2/14? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: Wiggum criteria for 2/14? ICON is the only thing right now showing a borderline mix. GFS and CMC show a fringed rain storm. Still a week out so this has time to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 GFS ensemble catching on to snow chances next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, zenmsav6810 said: Wiggum criteria for 2/14? Well we didn't quite get there the last time it hit close to 60, let alone 80 down in D.C. (although I think more north could still get flakes)! I think the model "climatology" pieces are unable to handle the changes in climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Well we didn't quite get there the last time it hit close to 60, let alone 80 down in D.C. (although I think more north could still get flakes)! I think the model "climatology" pieces are unable to handle the changes in climate. I think it is just we are due for less snow after completing 2 of our most snowy decades in our history in the 2000's and 2010's - cyclical pattern of climate change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 PDIII 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Franklin0529 said: PDIII All 3" of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 hours ago, RedSky said: All 3" of it Yeah too far south and too far out as of right now. The trends are north though right? It's trackable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Are we not interested in a 973 low over Wilmington Tuesday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Are we not interested in a 973 low over Wilmington Tuesday? That's a Harrisburg, north and west special! Even with us now being pretty much at the "coldest" time of year for water temps (due to the natural lag), the surface temps are still in the mid-upper 40s off the coast. The 0z Euro has that low further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Today should be our 16th straight above normal day...this streak should reach at least 20 days before our first chance at a below normal day since January 22nd by next Monday or Tuesday. Records for today: High 61 (2008) / Low 2 below (1948) / Precipitation 1.94" (1965) / Snow 10.0" (1895) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12Z runs punt the V day storm way north. Takes it to Pittsburgh then transfers off the Jersey coast. Congrats to the NE. PD is in play though. Didn't look like much change there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Are we not interested in a 973 low over Wilmington Tuesday? I would think we’d need that to transfer further south around The Cape Hatteras area for it to work out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 After a chilly low of 28 this morning, I made it up to 46 for a high. The breeze was more noticeable today so it felt cooler than the high suggested although spots in the sun were "warm". It's currently clear and 43 with dp 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 0z GFS is teasing us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Yes it was south of 18z knew it was coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: Yes it was south of 18z knew it was coming CMC to Syracuse to eastern Long Island Love it LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Anyone got a snowfall map for the 0z GFS? CMC? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9-11" on the 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, RedSky said: 9-11" on the 10:1 okay lock that up and we didn't see the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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