Central PA Autumn 2023

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ouch. 

I left the post as is intentionally, I did not want to add any commentary. Anyone who reads can take away what they want. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I left the post as is intentionally, I did not want to add any commentary. Anyone who reads can take away what they want. 

I added near term to my post to clarify. 

[paweather]

24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Ouch for near term. 

Expected for near term late next week should start the fun I hope. 

[TheClimateChanger]

The US Department of Agriculture released an update to its plant hardiness zones this morning. Most of south central PA is now in Zone 7A, with southeast Pennsylvania moving up to Zone 7B. Zooming in, I even spotted a small area of Zone 8A in southern Delaware County near the river. Looks like most areas increased at least one half of a zone since the last release.

Based on these updates, most areas should expect annual minimum temperatures to average between zero and 5F. Of course, that's an average, so there can still be years where the temperature drops below zero.

USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map | USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, paweather said:

Expected for near term late next week should start the fun I hope. 

I hope so too. It adds to the holiday preparations. I love snow best during this time of the year when the sun angle is low and daylight is reduced. 

I'm in Florida for an extended time in early December. Get your shovels ready!

[Bubbler86]

26 minutes ago, paweather said:

Expected for near term late next week should start the fun I hope. 

MU's Near term is into Dec.  

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

MU's Near term is into Dec.  

I didn't take it that way. 

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

I didn't take it that way. 

Not a forecast from me, just what he said. 

In a pattern like this, there is essentially a "nil" chance of any early-season snow for at least the next two weeks. During an El Niño, there is often a "split flow" Jet Stream pattern. Storm systems associated with the southern branch of the jet track across the southern tier of the nation, while those associated with the northern branch trek across southern Canada or northern New England. In between, there is often a lack of precipitation and milder air (relative to average). This is why there can be long stretches of quiet weather during an El Niño winter. However, major Nor'easters often form and dump crippling amounts of snow in the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor when the two branches of the Jet Stream "phease," or join forces. After a quiet start, I suspect that this happens at least once between mid-January and late-February. So hang in there, snow-lovers.. your time will come! -- Elliott

[paweather]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not a forecast from me, just what he said. 

In a pattern like this, there is essentially a "nil" chance of any early-season snow for at least the next two weeks. During an El Niño, there is often a "split flow" Jet Stream pattern. Storm systems associated with the southern branch of the jet track across the southern tier of the nation, while those associated with the northern branch trek across southern Canada or northern New England. In between, there is often a lack of precipitation and milder air (relative to average). This is why there can be long stretches of quiet weather during an El Niño winter. However, major Nor'easters often form and dump crippling amounts of snow in the mid-Atlantic and I-95 corridor when the two branches of the Jet Stream "phease," or join forces. After a quiet start, I suspect that this happens at least once between mid-January and late-February. So hang in there, snow-lovers.. your time will come! -- Elliott

I didn't mean just snow but colder. Just got to lay the groundwork LOL.

[Bubbler86]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

I didn't mean just snow but colder. Just got to lay the groundwork LOL.

ITT's post was about snow, so I was posting ouch in respect to MU's forecast that says no snow is in the cards for at least 2 weeks.  Sorry about the confusion.  

[paweather]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

ITT's post was about snow, so I was posting ouch in respect to MU's forecast that says no snow is in the cards for at least 2 weeks.  Sorry about the confusion.  

All good!

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, paweather said:

Expected for near term late next week should start the fun I hope. 

Since we are clarifying, I'm assumed your idea of FUN is colder and seeing blue popping up on maps.  Not necessarily shoveling snow outta ones driveway. 

Thats how I took it anyway.    

[canderson]

Today in 2018 we had a fun clipper come through that put down 2-3” 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Since we are clarifying, I'm assumed your idea of FUN is colder and seeing blue popping up on maps.  Not necessarily shoveling snow outta ones driveway. 

Thats how I took it anyway.    

You got it, I was more planting the seeds but if we blossom right away I would take that as well. LOL. 

[pasnownut]

no matter how next week does or doesnt happen (12z cuts to miller B well north of us), the pattern beyond APPEARS to be more fun, w/ some blues close enough to heighten spirits as we get into the holiday swing of things.  

[Bubbler86]

58 and Mostly Sunny here. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

58 and Mostly Sunny here. 

You’ve been warmer than me all week.  54 here. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, canderson said:

You’ve been warmer than me all week.  54 here. 

We continue to have a southwesterly component which screws me being on the wrong side of the mountain for it.   I get no valley protection.    57's and 58's a plenty over here.

 

 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

58 and Mostly Sunny here. 

 

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

You’ve been warmer than me all week.  54 here. 

I'm right down the middle of the uprights - 56 here. 

[Atomixwx]

Today in 2018 we had a fun clipper come through that put down 2-3” 

My phone's memories just showed me a video of my golden retriever running through snow like a crackhead on this day last year.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I'm right down the middle of the uprights - 56 here. 

And I was a good bit colder than Bubbler this morning. (27)

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

My phone's memories just showed me a video of my golden retriever running through snow like a crackhead on this day last year.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I miss having my goldens as they, like yours....loved snow. 

[Itstrainingtime]

20 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Ballsy as hell. Would be the most since 2002-2003. In fact, there's only been two other winters within a foot of that amount over that timeframe (2020-2021, 54.3; and 2003-2004, 55.5).

Not really - I stated that I was making guesses for fun. I think there will be a lot of storms with a lot of moisture and areas N&W of me should do well. If IPT ends up with 32", so be it. I'm not afraid to make a guess - I'm not a met. Just a thought based on the advertised pattern, history, and my instincts. 

So, what are your numbers? I put myself out there...your turn. 

[Bubbler86]

Both the 12Z CMC and GFS have qpf numbers similar to that EC map Mitchnick postered yesterday (front passage next week at this time.)  Drought denting type. 

[Jonesy56]

59 minutes ago, canderson said:

Today in 2018 we had a fun clipper come through that put down 2-3” 

Was that the commute-a-geddon  storm that way over-performed with heavy mid-day rates?  I think HIA had ~8" on the books for that one but I don't recall if that was 2018 or 19.  I just remember it taking 3 hours to get home for what is usually a 20 minute commute.

[Jonesy56]

Ah, yea.. that was it.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

Was that the commute-a-geddon  storm that way over-performed with heavy mid-day rates?  I think HIA had ~8" on the books for that one but I don't recall if that was 2018 or 19.  I just remember it taking 3 hours to get home for what is usually a 20 minute commute.

Almost identical experience for me - likewise, I have a 20 minute commute and it took me 2.5 hours to get home the day you're referring to. I even waited a while to leave work that day to give road crews a chance to catch up. Nope. That actually was my worst drive home commute...ever. 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Today in 2018 we had a fun clipper come through that put down 2-3” 

The Eskimo Joe snow of 2018.   Models were wavering on it and the mood was down in here and he came in with a cheerleader like enthusiasm and said it was coming. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Today in 2018 we had a fun clipper come through that put down 2-3” 

 

10 minutes ago, Jonesy56 said:

Was that the commute-a-geddon  storm that way over-performed with heavy mid-day rates?  I think HIA had ~8" on the books for that one but I don't recall if that was 2018 or 19.  I just remember it taking 3 hours to get home for what is usually a 20 minute commute.

Yeah I think you're right Jonesy.  Here is what I have in my notes for 11/15/18, with an added tidbit about T-giving day.....

An over-performing storm held on as mostly snow, causing havoc during midday commute.  The most accidents I've ever seen in LanCo. Worse NW with 8" Harrisburg & 11" State College. Coldest Thanksgiving day (11/22) ever for most PA locations.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

 

Yeah I think you're right Jonesy.  Here is what I have in my notes for 11/15/18, with an added tidbit about T-giving day.....

An over-performing storm held on as mostly snow, causing havoc during midday commute.  The most accidents I've ever seen in LanCo. Worse NW with 8" Harrisburg & 11" State College. Coldest Thanksgiving day (11/22) ever for most PA locations.

Thanksgiving morning that year was pretty chilly - wife and I were walking the river trail and it was interesting to see hardly anyone out there and the few that were had dressed like it was the frozen tundra. Without looking, I think the high that day was only in the low 20s (?) with wind chills MUCH lower. I even sported a sweatshirt that day on the trail since wind chills were at or below zero.