cyclone77 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Tonight's 0.04" brings us to 4.27" for Sep. Looks like that's it for rain until sometime later next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 back in the spin zone today, what a weird stretch of wx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Interesting about flamingos going rogue. Reminds me of the instances up my way when we've had mountain lion sightings, and even a black panther once. Critters going rogue for whatever reason isn't uncommon as far as I'm concerned. They can travel long distances in a short period of time. Now if they take up residence, or keep migrating back, then that is a different issue (CC could be one of them). Whitetail deer have been radio collared, and tracked here in MN. Sometimes they have made their way all the way over to the UP in just a a couple weeks. Critters move around all the time. I'll bet if one did some intense research into old paper articles, we would find more of these instances. Just saying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 Yeah I wouldn't say this is CC related except the frequency of these instances occurring more often. When Sandy happened in 2012 many states in the Midwest set records for sightings of unusual birds that got pushed in from the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 27, 2023 Share Posted September 27, 2023 18z GFS showing snow showers next weekend in Iowa. Won't happen but shows that that kind of thing ain't too far away. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: 18z GFS showing snow showers next weekend in Iowa. Won't happen but shows that that kind of thing ain't too far away. Interesting pattern. Unless the Canadian wildfires are under control by then, dense smoke looks possible as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: 18z GFS showing snow showers next weekend in Iowa. Won't happen but shows that that kind of thing ain't too far away. GFS and hilariously bad modeling with early cold snaps, name a better combo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted September 28, 2023 Author Share Posted September 28, 2023 Interesting pattern. Unless the Canadian wildfires are under control by then, dense smoke looks possible as well.I’d ride the torch until the horse gets cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 There was a moose down in Cedar Rapids Iowa around 2012, and the infamous Chicago Mountain Lion that police shot and killed on the NW side of the city back in like 2006. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS and hilariously bad modeling with early cold snaps, name a better combo. Yeah the GFS is pretty much useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah the GFS is pretty much useless. After its parade of 110s all summer I don't think I can trust it on anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomp2mp Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Constant horrible feeling light rain since around 7 tonight. Got about a quarter inch so far though. Humid cool air makes me sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 4 hours ago, thomp2mp said: Constant horrible feeling light rain since around 7 tonight. Got about a quarter inch so far though. Humid cool air makes me sad. We had .42 in an hour before I left work earlier. Solid rain that we kind of needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 Solid rain event here with 0.98" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 28, 2023 Share Posted September 28, 2023 5 hours ago, Lightning said: Solid rain event here with 0.98" .83" at DTW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Solid cluster of storms moving through this morning. Thunder was my alarm clock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 The pleasant temps and dry weather this month continues. It's been nearly 2 weeks since any decent rain at my house... hopefully that changes this weekend. Leaves falling quickly as peak has passed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Shwrs/stms on the way this morning. Flood watch out tonight as another 2" of rain possible. Ground is soaked now, and heavier downpours will likely run off more quickly. Didn't take long to go from parched to swamped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mhou Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Tons of thunderstorms last night and this morning. Probably picked up 3/4 inches of rain, chipping away at the drought! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherbo said: The pleasant temps and dry weather this month continues. It's been nearly 2 weeks since any decent rain at my house... hopefully that changes this weekend. Leaves falling quickly as peak has passed here. Wish I would have been able to get up there for peak (it a great excuse to get to the UP). At least it can be just as nice around here with fall colors (just a couple weeks from peak). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 4:29 PM, Stebo said: Yeah I wouldn't say this is CC related except the frequency of these instances occurring more often. When Sandy happened in 2012 many states in the Midwest set records for sightings of unusual birds that got pushed in from the east. Arctic snowy owls have been spotted in michigan in recent summers and were even spotted in los angeles recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 On 9/27/2023 at 10:16 PM, Stebo said: After its parade of 110s all summer I don't think I can trust it on anything. It's turned into a joke. It will be interesting to see if it continues with its long-range cold bias in the winter. That will tell us if it's just a bias of extremes or if it has switched to a warm bias. Ive never seen it show temperatures so far over 100° and even close to 110° for us like it did countless times this summer, sometimes as close as day 5 or 6. And we end with a max of 90° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Lots of area fields are being harvested now. Tomorrow looks like temps will make the upper 80s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Going big with the line of storms that just blasted through. KMSP 300153Z 33013G57KT 2SM +TSRA SCT029 BKN055CB OVC085 19/16 A3002 RMK AO2 PK WND 30057/0146 LTG DSNT SW-N RAB40 TSB40 SLP165 TS OHD MOV E P0021 T01890156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 This last stretch of Sep has been magnificent, 8 days at least of great weather, one day where it was mainly cloudy but no rain. Looking back at my typically awful 7 day for accuracy, it did very well correctly predicting most of this week within a few degrees. Remarkably stable pattern my highs and lows (around 9C-10C every day) are the same in a transitional period with this climo. One of the best last 3rd of Sep ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 On 9/29/2023 at 10:05 AM, Brian D said: Shwrs/stms on the way this morning. Flood watch out tonight as another 2" of rain possible. Ground is soaked now, and heavier downpours will likely run off more quickly. Didn't take long to go from parched to swamped. That was a bust. Only 0.12", but that's ok. We've had a good month for precip. 7.95" (3.53" avg). Temps ended up warm for the month with +1 on the max, and +6 on the min. Time correction would affect the min the most being the TH co-op is an a.m. stn now. That would be around ~+1 correction for this month. I've figured out TOB (time of observation bias) corrections before many times. A little time consuming. Colder months generally see a +1-2 correction in mins, and +0.5-1 in max. This type of correction is a part of the "milk plant" corrections in various datasets. They have a formula they use depending on lat/long, and month, and the same value is used each respective month every year. It's an avg calculated over many years. Actual TOB values for a given month every year are quite variable, as the wx patterns tend to be a little different. I've spent many hours of research doing these calculations just to see how an actual TOB, instead of avg TOB, affects a stn record. Interesting research. Changing reporting times, especially from pm to am, does affect their trends significantly. And most stns have switched from pm to am now. Anyone on the sub a co-op observer? Or has been? If anyone is interested in doing that for a local co-op site, and you know the report time, find the nearest hourly stn (whether arpt, or PWS), and get the midnight-midnight monthly max avg, and min avg. And then get the avg between the report time of your co-op. 7 am is TH co-op's time, so I get the max-min each day between 7am using the same mid-mid hourly dataset, then avg that data for the month. Subtract 7am max avg from midnight max avg, and the same with min. The difference will be the correction to your co-op data. If the 7 am value is less, that will be a + correction (typical of am stns), and if it is more, that will be a - correction (typical of pm stns). Because PWS data online is fairly robust now, try this with 2-3 stns around the co-op to get a good idea of the TOB correction. If you want to do longer research, it gets a little hairy with DST in the past. That makes a big difference. You need to know when it starts, and ends each year, and if you start, say in 1948, you'll need to know when DST comes into effect at that arpt site. Each state is different. DST issues have been, and still are an issue. And if you do start way back then, data is top hr only until the 90's-2000's. To stay consistent, and keep the amount of data your working with reasonable, stay top hr only to the present. The difference is small with sub hr data in the mix. And just a side note, the 1960's data is 3hr reporting times, so you can't really use that decade. At least that was what I ran into a few years back. Might be different now. Get data here. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps-and-geospatial-products Under "Climate Monitoring", select "hourly and sub hourly". A map will come up. Find your station with search (easiest), or zoom in the map. Left side panel will have "Hourly Global" checked at the top. Click the wrench icon, and a dialog box will show on map. Select rectangle, or polygon for your highlighter. Over the stn(s) you wish to select, left click, hold, and highlight. Release, and the stn(s) you've selected will appear on the left side. Check the box(es), and choose "add to cart" at the bottom. New tab will open with yearly data you can download in csv. Have fun A good read on the TOB topic is here. https://www.isws.illinois.edu/pubdoc/MP/ISWSMP-81.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Finishing September with only 1.80" rain here. Temps will finish just over a degree warmer than average, making this the first warmer than average month since April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Pretty warm for the last day of September. Both MLI and DVN at 90 degrees so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Cedar Rapids has set a new record, hitting 93º at 3pm. Update: Cedar Rapids topped out at 94º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted September 30, 2023 Share Posted September 30, 2023 Today was the 37th AOA 90 degree day at MLI for the year. Another shot at 90+ on Tue, but then that should do it for 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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