LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 36 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Better hope it’s a weak El Niño, and not the strong one . weak el nino is good for new england, we want closer to a strong one down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 11, 2023 Share Posted March 11, 2023 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: EPS members for NYC: The number of members with large snowfalls of 10" or more has increased in such areas as Boston, Poughkeepsie and White Plains. EPS members with a 4" average getting to 50% is pretty interesting. The chances of a moderate impact here in terms of snowfall are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 even if it isn't in your backyard..... those red colors (totals) still have to grab at ya, in the month of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Euro got slightly interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 What a run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeithB Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro got slightly interesting WOWO. It certainly did! GOGOGO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What a run You have a snow map? Never mind, it was posted in the New England thread and looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, mob1 said: You have a snow map? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: I didn't see the outputs on that run but I guess the low consolidates sooner and that inverted trough crap which is where most models produce our QPF from goes away. That's the shot we have for more than just wraparound flakes in NYC. Becoming very clear IMO and has been for a couple days that the places to be for this storm are the Helderbergs/N Catskills, Berkshires and Worcester hills. But the NW parts of our subforum do very well also if we can get that slightly quicker consolidation of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: halve that and still not bad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: halve that and still not bad I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I didn't see the outputs on that run but I guess the low consolidates sooner and that inverted trough crap which is where most models produce our QPF from goes away. That's the shot we have for more than just wraparound flakes in NYC. Becoming very clear IMO and has been for a couple days that the places to be for this storm are the Helderbergs/N Catskills, Berkshires and Worcester hills. But the NW parts of our subforum do very well also if we can get that slightly quicker consolidation of the storm. Catskills get crushed big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: I want to let this one go but the euro does good with big storms at least traditionally so it’s reeling me in. it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season. It’s mostly the euro and one gfs run. The cmc has not really shown anything great any run. The Ukie was showing a huge hit a day ago but has consistently backed off two straight runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did. Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30. One can dream though.... I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, White Gorilla said: Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did. Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30. One can dream though.... I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did. Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30. One can dream though.... I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. 10:1 is not happening, halve these numbers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, Winterweatherlover said: I think 1-2 feet pretty possible around Poughkeepsie. Most models seem to really like that area this time around. Yes halving those numbers still gets you to a foot or just over in the KPOU area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's like the different globals are taking their turns keeping our attention lol I don't think we have any chance of getting 6" of snow, but a 3-5 inch event is still pretty good, especially this season. Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s. Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. We should all be excited to track this but I am noticing alot of Debbie downers on here. Last storm of the season. Let's go out with a bang. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Expect rain from this and if it ends up as something more you’ll be happy. If you’re hoping for/expecting a MECS you’re very likely to get disappointed. Maybe not the worst time to check out Hunter Mountain lol. I think realistically at least most of us are not expecting a MECS but hoping for a 3-6 inch event on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 20 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro got slightly interesting Till the next run. It’s like throwing darts. We do know it’s a high probability of a strong storm. These slight shifts in model runs can go up to nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Have seen moderately large discrepancies several times in the past week between snowfall amounts on SV vs those on Pivotal, with SV amouts being much higher and we're seeing it again. Does anyone know the difference between their snowfall estimation algrithms to know if one or the other is more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Have seen moderately large discrepancies several times in the past week between snowfall amounts on SV vs those on Pivotal, with SV amouts being much higher and we're seeing it again. Does anyone know the difference between their snowfall estimation algrithms to know if one or the other is more accurate? Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Definitely deserves a weenie tag as Julian did. Poughkeepsie and surrounding is NOT getting 27-30. One can dream though.... I can see the highest Cats getting two feet under this solution. Also, it’s March. If it was January or February, there would be a higher chance of getting those 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Differences but the pivotal map definitely has the 6+ line further south than the 12z run. Definitely true, as the 12Z has the 6" line roughly around 80 and 18Z has it roughly around 78, a difference of ~20 miles and 20 miles is ginormous to those of us on the fringes of good snowfall, i.e., anyone south of 78. Still doesn't explain the discrepancy between SV and Pivotal snowfall maps, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: lol brings back such "nice" memories of the 80s and early 90s. Even the Poconos won't get 6 inches from this will they-- especially the southern Poconos around Lake Harmony, at 2,000 ft asl? Depends on where that initial inverted trough precip sets up, should be cold enough in the Poconos for it to be snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 10:1 is not happening, halve these numbers Maybe take off 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 12, 2023 Share Posted March 12, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: Depends on where that initial inverted trough precip sets up, should be cold enough in the Poconos for it to be snow. omg they already got 8 inches in that area that ended this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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