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February 11-12 ULL Winter Storm


Upstate Tiger
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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s absurd. We’ve unlocked a new way to fail: a cool pool ULL that’s not even cold enough for snow even in foothills with a strong LP blossoming along the coast in early February 

Frustrating is an understatement.  Hang in there though.  This issue if far from settled.  I am reserving all judgement until tomorrow's afternoon suite comes out.   

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12Z NAM with a 1028 Meso High situated nicely over the IN/OH border. I'm going to be monitoring that to see if it can make a difference as precip nears the areas of concern for wintry weather. So far at 36 precip looks a little delayed compared to 6z. 

That tiny high really books it next couple frames and dews are progged to be a couple degrees warmer from last run. This is going the wrong way. 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

12z NAM went the wrong way. Everything has gone the wrong way since noon yesterday. Looking more and more like a mountains-only deal and even there they will have mixing issues. What a disaster the last 18 hours of model runs has been 

I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year. 

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

3K Total Snowfall.. Only thing we can hope for at this point is the Nam is being the Nam but we're starting to get closer to the event..

snku_acc-imp.us_ma.png

It's not just the NAM showing this though. The high res GFS fv3, HRRR, and canadian. Only the highest peaks may get 6+ out of this and that's even questionable. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I honestly don't even buy the freezing rain potential. It will end up being 36 and rain.. it never fails. What a freakin year. 

I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended:

1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate

2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 

3) Further NW with low tracking inland 

4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose

Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I don’t buy it at all. It’s just simply not cold enough for freezing rain and it will now be falling in daylight. I had held out hope that folks outside of the mountains would get a decent thump and it looked very promising as recently as 12z yesterday but models have trended:

1) Even slower. Now a daytime event Sunday and it gives the cool pool everyone outside the mountains is totally relying on more time to moderate

2) much drier in deform area. Mid levels dry out when you’d think precip would be solid and you end up with no snow to bring cold air down, a huge issue with temps 

3) Further NW with low tracking inland 

4) Presence of the dreaded warm nose

Im not saying it’s impossible someone gets lucky but it would seem this threat is dead outside the mountains and even there the snow potential seems half of what it was yesterday through 12z

Hell at this point if I had a 2-4 hr period of moderate snow up this way and we got an inch or two, the way things have gone this year, i'd be elated, BUT I don't even foresee it even up deep into the Blue Ridge. I will reserve final judgment until GFS comes out, because it's been pretty consistent with a heavy band of snow traversing northern and northwestern most areas of the forum once the ULL swings.

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It's not just the NAM showing this though. The high res GFS fv3, HRRR, and canadian. Only the highest peaks may get 6+ out of this and that's even questionable. 

Yes, this actually looks pretty realistic….. as good as mountains are for CAD help, they will absolutely Shred the “Death Band” if it doesn’t form perfectly and scoot under it thru the upstate it will just be wrung out like a summer time band from TN


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