Carvers Gap Posted January 2, 2023 Author Share Posted January 2, 2023 And the fly in the ointment w/ the Euro Weeklies is a resurgence of dry to very dry weather pattern for many from the Plains to the EC, especially the SE after Jan 10th. Dry weather simply reduces our chances at precip and reduces our chances of snow. One caveat...sometimes when dry conditions show-up on the Euro Weeklies it can be due to a snowy pattern. I lean just dry conditions unrelated to frozen precip, but I won't rule it out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 The January thaw is at hand. Unfortunately, the HB block is the new pattern. Why do I mention that? Several days ago I had said that I was was 50/50 on whether it was transient or a new pattern. Well, it is the new pattern as it will take roughly four weeks to move it out it appears. The Euro Weeklies begin to break down that pesky HB block down during the last 1/2 of January. January will most certainly finish AN due to the first five days alone. I hate it, but it will check off the box for my January winter forecast. We will see a gradual step down beginning during the second half of January IF the Weeklies are correct. February looks decent. I have said it all day. This is a classic Nina pattern. The trough, once the HB block is gone, will set up in the northern Rockies and send multiple cold fronts eastward. I suspect there will be a fairly strong front towards the end of the month. Normal temps from mid-Jan to mid-Feb will likely get the job done. IF(stress), the Weeklies are correct they are following the path of many good winters where winter returns during the latter half of January. Time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 The West is having a banter Winter ❄️ Nina's their best friend out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 24 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: The West is having a banter Winter ❄️ Nina's their best friend out there. Yeah, It has been a really good couple of decades for the Yellowstone ecosystem w so many Nina winters. When I first started going out there during the late 90s, their runoff season was often over by late June, and their rivers were suffering from low water. Lately, runoff season has generally lasted well into July. Last year, they had good snow, but poor water content. Makes for better fishing and survivable fire seasons. Their situation is much improved. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 52 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said: I know you are following Cosgrove and his update this evening is promising. Larry is a good friend and was my neighbor back in the NW area of SE Texas. He's been on a roll the past couple of years and I suspect he's going to be right again regarding the upcoming evolution... Yeah, I saw that. Awesome that you know him. He has definitely been on a roll. He called this thaw in his original winter forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, Maggie Ace said: I know you are following Cosgrove and his update this evening is promising. Larry is a good friend and was my neighbor back in the NW area of SE Texas. He's been on a roll the past couple of years and I suspect he's going to be right again regarding the upcoming evolution... Yeah Ace he is a great meteorologist. He definitely knows pattern recognition and has great sight following patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I don't know Larry Cosgrove personally, but he has a nice presence on social media - a rare and refreshing occurrence in our era of cocky novices on social media. At any rate I have traded in my MLK Day cold flip for 2-3 more weeks of warm. Oh Alaska trough! Always a chance again in Feb. However years with extreme cold dumps sometimes can't fully reload. Including both the 500 mb and the surface projection. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 This is from the Weeklies last evening(which I think was a a bit quick w/ eroding this pattern). However, this is a rough timeline I am following. I think we see a cool down between the 5th and 10th. Then, we see another warm-up. Then, if the MJO is correct(and the timeline below seems consistent between modeling), we start working back towards seasonal by the 20th. This seems eerily similar to the timelines of the past two cold snaps - lots of can kicking and then cold. Jeff. 2-3 more weeks after MKL day or starting from today? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 And just like that the 12z GFS has a trackable system next Sunday. Temps are marginal in the valley, but the track is sound. At min, that is threat for the mountains if the GFS is right - big IF! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 The 12z ICON has a similar look, but is more westerly. If in doubt, cutter is the default. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 I often try to do a run-to-run change to catch trends on modeling. The 12z GFS, huge grains.....has a massive -NAO developing after 300+. IF that is real, and it may not be, that is going to completely disrupt LR modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 As we see the strat warm, the response to the troposphere might look a lot like that east base -NAO. Good trends, albeit very far out there trends..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 This year honestly is looking allot like the last few with the exception of the three days around christmas, very warm and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 32 minutes ago, matt9697 said: This year honestly is looking allot like the last few with the exception of the three days around christmas, very warm and wet Agree. I believe severe threat this year will be much more common & likely as we head into February & March. I hope I eat crow. Looking at next 2 weeks. The temps keep trending warmer. Was supposed to be mid 40’s. Now forecast in 50’s & near 60. Which is perfect wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Agree. I believe severe threat this year will be much more common & likely as we head into February & March. I hope I eat crow. Looking at next 2 weeks. The temps keep trending warmer. Was supposed to be mid 40’s. Now forecast in 50’s & near 60. Which is perfect wx. Yea, eventually we will actually have year that we have winter not looking like this year either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 18 hours ago, matt9697 said: This year honestly is looking allot like the last few with the exception of the three days around christmas, very warm and wet In my opinion I disagree. Since September we have seen several cold intrusions in our region in general. We had an early Frost and freeze to the past few winters. We actually had Fall weather for a few months that helped with a wonderful leaf season. Sure we've not seen a huge snowstorm but this year in my opinion has been leaps and bounds better than last year especially. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 The 12z GEPS/GEFS are very quick to remove the HB block after d12 or so. Looks like a reset of sorts will be underway shortly after that. Will it result in a western trough? Maybe. Will that western trough roll eastward and result in another cold shot(s)? Maybe. Indeed, the answer might be both. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I am still pretty confident that cold and winter weather chances will return later into January and the early feb. Nothing changes like the weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: And just like that the 12z GFS has a trackable system next Sunday. Temps are marginal in the valley, but the track is sound. At min, that is threat for the mountains if the GFS is right - big IF! Been keeping up with that one. I've been letting the locals know about it as a time to watch for the possibility of wet snow. I'm thinking a pretty good liklihood for higher eles but leaning , mainly cold rain lower for the most part as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 There are some signs an overall mild eastern pattern continues with short breaks through January(hopefully not). You know, if the mild eastern pattern remains dominant into early FEB., the 71-72 may come into play as somewhat of an analog. That was a 2nd Year Nina and was one of mine for last Winter. That Winter featured an Alaskan Vortex in Jan/Feb of which finally shifted by mid Feb.(may of been a strat. disruption) and much of that cold moved into the Eastern US. A Miller A moved up the coast that phased with a LP over the Eastern Lakes. We received 8 inches from that one on the 17th. That was a memorable one for me as I was in hospital with the Flu . I recall people commenting that day that it was in the 20's out and the snow had just started just west of Town(Penn.gap). I got out the next day and man was it cold and windy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 What I am about to post is highly speculative (even more than usual) so use/ look at/ care about with caution. WRT the 12z GFS long range depiction of a possible NAO block developing. There seems to be a connection between this and ridging attacking the the SPV at 50mb: But this is not evident above Greenland at 10mb: What is still evident at 10 mb is a warming emerging over Siberia and aiming toward the N pole: Again it is waaaaayyyyy out there, but that is not a healthy SPV, if that sort of evolution plays out. What would be really interesting about this evolution to me, is that we've had SPV disruptions initiate over Greenland from lower down in the atmosphere (i.e. NAO), and from the warming over Siberia, but I don't know we've had one with both components since I've been posting. We remain in a SPV Watch. Amy Butler had a pretty level headed post about the evolution on the twitterwebs: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 3, 2023 Author Share Posted January 3, 2023 I am definitely interested in the 9th-13th range. I think we possibly may see at least one storm along the eastern seaboard. Temps are marginal. That said, both the Euro, CMC, and GFS are hinting at possible storminess then. The 18z GFS does actually show an acceptable MJO progression. Let's hope we see more of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I know cosgrove today said the mjo should connect to polar westerlies about 10 days from now but that's speculation at this point. The pac jet still looks intense. Hopefully the mjo is enough to get the jet to retract. We will know most likely by mid January 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Here is what Cosgrove said: While I have emphasized the importance of model convergence on the sudden stratospheric warming event (combined with severe stretching of the circumpolar vortex), I must also stress that the interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the polar westerlies is a key element in getting the USA back into winter weather. There is no linkage between these two features, but as an MJO pulse builds near the International Dateline in about 240 hours, that set-up is likely to change. Contact between tropical forcing and the higher latitude flow will amplify the 500MB flow, pushing out the West Coast disturbance in favor of ridging. Which, in turn, will enhance cold air drainage from Siberia and northern Canada. Here is a link for anyone wanting to read the full comments: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7016045623946723328 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 And it could be that the trough sticks and holds out west. Climatology absolutely supports it - at least one cluster does anyway. However, we just saw erroneous feedback in modeling which tried to extend the recent cold spell to the horizon. I do wonder if we are seeing modeling not recognizing the MJO phase change and it is simply perpetuation the current phase. JB mentioned that this evening and Cosgrove seemed to imply it. JB, also to his credit, did find four times that MJO rotated through 8 and it stayed warm. It is rare, but not without minor precedent. We are all getting a good lesson on why the NAO(or absence of...) is important. What we see currently and on modeling is what all of December would have likely looked like w/out AN heights over Greenland. Time will tell. I have a feeling that we will see changes in LR modeling soon. D10+ forecasts can flip on a dime. That said, if we don't switch back...enjoy the nice weather. It sure beats mid 90s and 75% humidity! I definitely thought of January 1990 today as we hit the low 70s in TRI. I suspect we see winter roll back through from the last week of Jan through February. But I am not writing off Jan 5-25th either. As long as that HB block is in place, there is a thread-the-needle chance for a storm as it will suppress systems from time-to-time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Carver, I think the consensus now is that the mjo will get overwhelmed from other factors, especially in phase 8. Hopefully things change by mid-end of january so we will have a few more opportunities at cold and snow or ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Carver, I think the consensus now is that the mjo will get overwhelmed from other factors, especially in phase 8. Hopefully things change by mid-end of january so we will have a few more opportunities at cold and snow or ice I thought you were gonna show me how much better that +PNA was gonna be after the -NAO. Or is that a different consensus? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I thought you were gonna show me how much better that +PNA was gonna be after the -NAO. Or is that a different consensus? Pna is getting overwhelmed by the jet. If you want to know the honest truth, winter is over for us. Too many factors that supports that. I know it's premature say that, but that's imo. Last winter we had more of an east based lean in la niña but this year is central to west based. A totally different animal. Let's see how close I am once mid March is here 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, Itryatgolf70 said: Pna is getting overwhelmed by the jet. If you want to know the honest truth, winter is over for us. Too many factors that supports that. I know it's premature say that, but that's imo It may and it may not. That is always one of the plausible outcomes at any point during winter. Fortunately, none of us know the future which is why we try our hand at this. We will continue to look for potential cold and storms regardless.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 hours ago, matt9697 said: This year honestly is looking allot like the last few with the exception of the three days around christmas, very warm and wet Here are the last three winters including this one.....Not sure about your location(these maps always have discrepancies and there are definitely some areas which do better than others which smoothing covers), but many(lower elevation middle and west TN) were close to or above their seasonal norms for the two snow seasons prior to this one. North of I-40, they should be near seasonal norms in the same areas (up to this point in the season). And that snow didn't just fall around Christmas. So, I disagree in general. I am sure there are exceptions, and maybe your local was one of those. E TN, especially SE E TN, would reflect that comment more than middle and western areas. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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