matt9697 Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I did just replace our kitchen faucet, but it just finally broke down(not due to cold). I put it off long enough until finally the water on the kitchen floor made me pay attention to it. I was glad that was all it was as the outside faucet is hooked into that line, and I thought it broke. I was relieved to find that the faucet was all it was. Ours is the water line outside. Was created by the power company bringing their equipment in the yard to grind the stumps of the trees they insisted should be cut. Trees not even close to water line but driving backhoe equipment over the area. I could fight about it with them but easier to fix it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 That Control run looks absolutely gorgeous. That is a Miller B to Miller A or hybrid type pattern look. Also, Southern Slider.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 The 6z GFS has what amounts to a major winter storm(prob would be for E TN if correct), but the GFS has resumed producing outlier solutions. For now, I think it an outlier unless gets some support from another model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 1989 is probably the winter that haunts me. I have said that before, and I say it again. We had not had multiple warm winters (consecutively) in my lifetime at that point. My childhood was the 1970s. I only knew cold and snowy winters. I had just lived through 84-85. The winters had warmed slightly since the mid80s, and that trend was noticeable. But...given how cold Jan85 was, it had no where to go but up. So, when '89 hit I thought we were back in action. I was. a student at UTK at the time, and it was cold. There was a huge snowstorm predicted that didn't materialize. I headed home for the break, and came back to spring. Winter never came back. The outdoor pools on campus began to open to students in the middle of winter. It was surreal. December 2018(I think I have that right) is another example of December cold which froze rivers, and winter just muddled along after. So, I am wary of dam-breaking, cold outbreaks during early winter - very wary. So, I thought it might be interesting to reconstruct(forensic climatology sort of...) of that winter. Can you imagine AmWx w/ this???? Can you imagine the calls to just shut it down until next winter? December: January: February: So, when I see a very cold shot in December, I wonder. I this the repeat? And I don't think so this year. There is much more cold in the West during December. It didn't really make it in force to many coastal cities of the east coast. The other thing I notice is the lack of blocking up top during January and February. Modeling has HL blocking for January. Whether it helps us or not is another discussion entirely. Additionally, December was PNA/EPO driven and not NAO driven. NAOs during winters tend to repeat off-and-on during winter. In fact, there was very little blocking over Greenland that winter at all. What I think (and am certainly not certain of) is that we are seeing a typical January thaw. My main concern is that Nina winters IMBY tend to leave during January and not come back. The caveat? This is a rare third year La Nina. I am not even sure a fourth year Nina has ever been recorded(I read that and cannot confirm). I suspect the 6z GFS is too quick, but if it is right...winter is back quite quickly. I am reading some strat warm stuff. Honestly, I don't like it as much as I used to as it seems to throw a wrench in good patterns. But given the pattern through mid-January, I don't think it is wrecking much if it occurs. Also, winter patterns tend to repeat. That pattern is extreme cold diving into the West and racing eastward. That has been ongoing since mid-November. Let's see if that repeats 2-3 more times this winter along w/ very warm interludes. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 In general, the 12z global deterministic runs bring the first cold shot around January 5th, and then subsequent cold fronts after that w/ warm interludes. It would not surprise me to see snow showers behind the system on the 5th. I think this pattern gets progressively cold. By the third week in January, this pattern might be really cold. So, enjoy the next 6 days.... 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 CFS strenghtened the MJO signal today,into Jan into the WH and Africa,along with the AO going negative once again.PNA/NAO looks +,seems like a better chance of cutters,for us in the west this isnt a horrible look for us,personally i dont like a big -NAO with systems down into the GOM,we get cold and dry.Still like to see the NAO change somewhat or even us will seemingly just see cold air chasing rain..blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 3 hours ago, jaxjagman said: CFS strenghtened the MJO signal today,into Jan into the WH and Africa,along with the AO going negative once again.PNA/NAO looks +,seems like a better chance of cutters,for us in the west this isnt a horrible look for us,personally i dont like a big -NAO with systems down into the GOM,we get cold and dry.Still like to see the NAO change somewhat or even us will seemingly just see cold air chasing rain..blah Jax, are those cfs charts typically pretty accurate from your experience? Just wondering. I'm hoping the mjo gets in favorable phases for cold and storminess for us eventually this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 6 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: Jax, are those cfs charts typically pretty accurate from your experience? Just wondering. I'm hoping the mjo gets in favorable phases for cold and storminess for us eventually this winter probably generally not to an extent but still gives you a hint,Like the Euro shows the signal of the MJO retrogrades into the WP when the majority of its ensembles shows it going into the WP.so i wouldnt say the CFS is that far off,but that dont mean its right either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Operational modeling this morning looks good. Ensembles look to be following the GEFS lead. Does it score a coup? It just might. GBO! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Operational modeling this morning looks good. Ensembles look to be following the GEFS lead. Does it score a coup? It just might. GBO! I dont know about anyone else but I think you should do a forum poll before you change your profile picture again. I am used to looking for the bright orange, taking some getting used to for the new one. 3 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: I dont know about anyone else but I think you should do a forum poll before you change your profile picture again. I am used to looking for the bright orange, taking some getting used to for the new one. It is an adjustment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: I dont know about anyone else but I think you should do a forum poll before you change your profile picture again. I am used to looking for the bright orange, taking some getting used to for the new one. Especially considering the Vols won the Orange Bowl last night! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: Especially considering the Vols won the Orange Bowl last night! So, I have been meaning to change my profile for a while. When I went to Roan Mtn this week, I decided to get a better photo. Most of the time I get too much glare from the sign up there(or it is socked in cloudy), and I don't get a clear shot for whatever reason. It fits my handle so I rolled with it. I didn't even make the connection to the game until after it was over. I thought about changing it back to the PowerT for a few days, but was like hey...why mess with a good thing(as in we won)!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Who knows if the 12z GFS is right(and it did identify the jan5 cold front before other modeling if memory serves me correctly), but it just about phased the northern and southern branch features at 126, and then buckled the jet at 132 w/ a slp along the SC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Yeah, the 12z GFS stalls that low or at least it crawls. That was close to a very, very big storm. That is only 5-6 days out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Let's see if the 12z CMC does something similar as it has a similar setup just at 84..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 The CMC keeps them separate. Thing is, with HP over the stop and southern stream energy w/ shortened wavelengths.....there is room for something to come north along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 Last post after a flurry of them, the shortened wavelengths deal has my interest. When wavelengths shorten up (instead of broad troughs and ridges), storm genesis can occur even during a warmer pattern. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 The CFSv2 is decidedly colder today. I feel like I have seen this movie before.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 The 6z CFSv2 is firmly adamant that the NAO block returns for the second half of January. Coupled w/ the HB AN heights, it funnels cold into most of the continental US - icebox pattern. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: So, I have been meaning to change my profile for a while. When I went to Roan Mtn this week, I decided to get a better photo. Most of the time I get too much glare from the sign up there(or it is socked in cloudy), and I don't get a clear shot for whatever reason. It fits my handle so I rolled with it. I didn't even make the connection to the game until after it was over. I thought about changing it back to the PowerT for a few days, but was like hey...why mess with a good thing(as in we won)!!! I liked your orange T profile. I am a huge Vol fan. I graduated high school the same year as Tennessee O-Lineman Harry Galbreath at rival school in Clarksville back in 1983. He was a great guy. I do like the Carvers Gap profile picture as well. You got 2 cool profiles. I look forward to reading your daily updates during the winter. I feel like we are still going to have a more chances as we move on into January. ☃️ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 19 minutes ago, snowmaker said: I liked your orange T profile. I am a huge Vol fan. I graduated high school the same year as Tennessee O-Lineman Harry Galbreath at rival school in Clarksville back in 1983. He was a great guy. I do like the Carvers Gap profile picture as well. You got 2 cool profiles. I look forward to reading your daily updates during the winter. I feel like we are still going to have a more chances as we move on into January. ☃️ HB was a man among boys. Yeah, the Vols have been my team since I was a kid. My first football game was against Southern Cal in Knoxville. There were NFL Hall of Famers in that game. I have been to basketball games in Stokely. I grew up listening to John ward. As a student, I lived some of the great years at UT, early to mid 90s. It is nice for my own kids to finally get a chance to see TN play meaningful games late in the season! While nothing is ever guaranteed, I think the pattern improves with each passing week after week 1 on January. Very much agree. I tend to think American modeling is able to adjust more quickly to pattern changes during winter. The GFS operational, as maligned as it has been(me included), spotted the Jan5th cold front first. I am leaning more towards cold/stormy, but still isn't a slam dunk. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 The 12z EPS has finally caved to the GEFS - lock, stock, and barrel. A great look d10+. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 20 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z EPS has finally caved to the GEFS - lock, stock, and barrel. A great look d10+. Funny I was just reading BAMWX & they are like nope going to be a warm January. No winter it appears they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Funny I was just reading BAMWX & they are like nope going to be a warm January. No winter it appears they say. I could make that argument for sure. Jan is likely to be AN for temps as the warm spells will be very warm. Seems like Jan 96 wasn’t overly cold by averages. I just think winter is coming back beginning this week and with each passing storm. The progression looks quite similar to Nov and Dec. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Not sure i agree with BAM unless the PAC craps out.Who knows right now.The SPV seemingly as we head into Mid Jan is gonna get displaced and weaken again as it goes into Greenland,least thats what the GFS says FWIW.The AO is showing signs it could fall out soon or least go -ve for a spell,still like to see a better NAO but even that is better than it looked yesterday.But the pattern we are in for the next couple weeks looks like cutters.I was looking at all the waves the GFS shows in the long range seems like a volatile pattern to decipher,proly best to stay away from the GFS MID/LONG range,its not gonna be right 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Even the Euro would seem to show a volatile pattern with all the moving parts,not sure the models will do a very decent job upcoming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Should be a very active patterm we are seeing now into week2 of Jan if you like rain and severe in the cold season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 The Southeast Crew is having a meltdown. Some of the Twitter musings they're looking at. I don't know what some of those are going by but, nothing has really given a definitive absolute of a warm January like some are touting . Like it's set in stone; like the Gospel or something. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2023 Author Share Posted January 1, 2023 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: The Southeast Crew is having a meltdown. Some of the Twitter musings they're looking at. I don't know what some of those are going by but, nothing has really given a definitive absolute of a warm January like some are touting . Like it's set in stone; like the Gospel or something. Yep, Twitter group think is real. Whatever viewpoint one wants, it is on Twitter. LOL. The first 5 days will likely be super warm which makes a warm January highly likely. But as we found w/ December, warm starts don't tell the entire story. I do think this side of the Apps is far better situated for cold and even in western NC. And Boone, I know you know this. I am not really interested if the month is base warm. What I look for are winter storm windows. Cold helps, but we get some leeway during January which we don't have during other months. To me, I see 2-3 storm windows with increasing chances as each week passes. We are going to be fighting source regions, but the MJO rotations have generally looked not hostile. And the MJO is moving so slowly, if it gets into 8...it may take some time to get it out of there. I have seen winter end during January, and this is not how it usually looks when that occurs. Right now, it looks like the pattern is going to slowly reload like it did during November. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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