Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Sounds familiar in our worst winters 2020: ⚠️ SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN REGARDING CHRISTMAS EVE - PLEASE READ STATEMENT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND METICULOUSLY: A powerful cold front on the lead of a very deep/cold trough will arrive during the evening on Thursday. This is NOT your typical cold front passage, and it will be both impactful and disruptive. First, this is NOT a snow event. Although snowflakes may mix at the tail end of precipitation in a few far NW/interior areas, the vast majority of it is a very mild RAIN. A low level jet at 700mb (approx. 10,000 feet AGL) will co-align itself parallel the incoming front/trough, increasing wind potential down to the surface. APPROXIMATE TIMING: Rain showers arrive during the afternoon Thursday W-E, and becomes increasingly heavy during the evening. A potent thunderstorm squall line (with some lightning possible) traverses our region W-E from about 9pm-3am Thursday evening/early Friday AM. Once the squall line moves through, precipitation abruptly ends in the pre-dawn hours, and wind subsides significantly. A few flurries may linger on Christmas Day. IMPACTS: 1) Heavy rain for most between 1.0-1.5" with higher amounts in areas of elevation exceeding 2.0" with added lift, combined with rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns Thursday PM/overnight. 2) Unusually high wind gusts picking up to 30-40mph+ mid to late afternoon Thursday, then increasing to 40-50mph+ during the evening. With the aforementioned squall line as it moves through W-E approximately 9pm-3am, 50-60mph+ gusts are likely with over 60mph peak gusts most likely to occur in far Eastern PA, Delaware and all of New Jersey. There is a HIGH concern for widespread power outages across the region Thursday evening/night unfortunately. 3) As the squall line passes and the front clears late Thursday night, a rapid temperature crash is expected from the mid to upper 50s prior to the front to below freezing in just a few hours time. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Christmas Day. This will lead to a FLASH FREEZE and all wet surfaces will become ice, including roadways, sidewalks, and all exposed surfaces. Given the very poor and worst possible timing of the holiday, increased attention and emphasis is placed on this particular event. Please have a plan in place to adapt to changing conditions with flooding, high winds/increased power outage potential, and the flash freeze that follows. Forecaster: Martrich 22DEC1500z They are a day off with their mention of Christmas day but pretty good depiction otherwise. Crazy day tomorrow. There might be an off ball 60 degree reading in Eastern Lanco tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 17 minutes ago, paweather said: Sounds familiar in our worst winters 2020: ⚠️ SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN REGARDING CHRISTMAS EVE - PLEASE READ STATEMENT IN ITS ENTIRETY AND METICULOUSLY: A powerful cold front on the lead of a very deep/cold trough will arrive during the evening on Thursday. This is NOT your typical cold front passage, and it will be both impactful and disruptive. First, this is NOT a snow event. Although snowflakes may mix at the tail end of precipitation in a few far NW/interior areas, the vast majority of it is a very mild RAIN. A low level jet at 700mb (approx. 10,000 feet AGL) will co-align itself parallel the incoming front/trough, increasing wind potential down to the surface. APPROXIMATE TIMING: Rain showers arrive during the afternoon Thursday W-E, and becomes increasingly heavy during the evening. A potent thunderstorm squall line (with some lightning possible) traverses our region W-E from about 9pm-3am Thursday evening/early Friday AM. Once the squall line moves through, precipitation abruptly ends in the pre-dawn hours, and wind subsides significantly. A few flurries may linger on Christmas Day. IMPACTS: 1) Heavy rain for most between 1.0-1.5" with higher amounts in areas of elevation exceeding 2.0" with added lift, combined with rapid snow melt will lead to flooding concerns Thursday PM/overnight. 2) Unusually high wind gusts picking up to 30-40mph+ mid to late afternoon Thursday, then increasing to 40-50mph+ during the evening. With the aforementioned squall line as it moves through W-E approximately 9pm-3am, 50-60mph+ gusts are likely with over 60mph peak gusts most likely to occur in far Eastern PA, Delaware and all of New Jersey. There is a HIGH concern for widespread power outages across the region Thursday evening/night unfortunately. 3) As the squall line passes and the front clears late Thursday night, a rapid temperature crash is expected from the mid to upper 50s prior to the front to below freezing in just a few hours time. Temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day on Christmas Day. This will lead to a FLASH FREEZE and all wet surfaces will become ice, including roadways, sidewalks, and all exposed surfaces. Given the very poor and worst possible timing of the holiday, increased attention and emphasis is placed on this particular event. Please have a plan in place to adapt to changing conditions with flooding, high winds/increased power outage potential, and the flash freeze that follows. Forecaster: Martrich 22DEC1500z Where did this forecast come from? Who issued it and what areas were covered? Eastern PA and NJ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Let’s hope the old 12k NAM is on the right track with post front snow tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 3k NAM also improved LSV post front snow chance tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 The rain just keeps pouring outside as I listen to the water crashing down the leaders from the roof. Temp now at the high for the day at 39.6. Officially so far, 1.66" of total liquid for the day. Snowfall was 0.36" and the rest 1.30" is rain. The snow is still hanging on. I still have a solid cover of at least an inch...maybe 1.5". Hold on, my precious snowpack...hold on! I wonder if the increasingly colder temps for later tomorrow will come to fruition? We were only forecast to drop to +6F and now it looks like near zero. That's hard to believe, but we'll see. If we are down to zero that's definitely into wind chill warning territory with 40mph gusts. YIkes. Shades of Christmas 1980 more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 What time will the artic front be going thru the squehanna Valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Where did this forecast come from? Who issued it and what areas were covered? Eastern PA and NJ? Eastern PA but just wanted to post how similar this event is to that one. Very similar. Doesn’t mean anything other than it happened before in a not so good winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Eastern PA but just wanted to post how similar this event is to that one. Very similar. Doesn’t mean anything other than it happened before in a not so good winter. Lol, so that explains the day being off. I thought that was for tomorrow. Sneaky! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 11 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: What time will the artic front be going thru the squehanna Valley? Hrrr has temps drop out of the 50's at Mdt around 4am then below freezing around 8am. Below 10 around noon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Lol, so that explains the day being off. I thought that was for tomorrow. Sneaky! Sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hrrr has temps drop out of the 50's at Mdt around 4am then below freezing around 8am. Below 10 around noon. Something tells me the power will go off tomorrow. My wife and I have that feeling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Something tells me the power will go off tomorrow. My wife and I have that feeling Hope not for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Something tells me the power will go off tomorrow. My wife and I have that feeling I hope not. It is bad timing temp and holiday wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I hope not. It is bad timing temp and holiday wise. Yea and will they attempt to restore the power with high winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Yea and will they attempt to restore the power with high winds? I doubt they just let people sit in the cold but cannot imagine what it is like for people tasked with it. They are hero's for going out in weather like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1z HRRR has upped the snow potential for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: 1z HRRR has upped the snow potential for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area. And @Cashtown_Coop too….of course! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 1z HRRR has upped the snow potential for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area. Just get me a white Christmas please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 So. Much. Rain. And my snow is all gone. 47 and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Also why is there no wind advisor for the LSV? Wind advisories are south in MD/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I doubt they just let people sit in the cold but cannot imagine what it is like for people tasked with it. They are hero's for going out in weather like that. Yes they are. The reason I asked was After the hurricane in Florida this fall FPL said after the winds go below 35 mph then they will start restoring power:Immediately following the hurricane, once winds drop below 35 miles per hour, FPL will continue restoration and conduct damage assessments with field crews," the utility company said in a written statement.Sep 28, 2022 I didn't know if those standards apply up here or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 What the heck, it’s almost Christmas…why not dust off the old SREF, lol! It brings around 1 inch of snow to the LSV tomorrow & this is 10-1, So probably a little more if Kuchera was available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 I got my answer https://lm.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Flocal21news.com%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Fppl-electric-utilities-prepare-for-power-outages-ahead-of-storm%23&h=AT12jC89Me-EgVuK29HvWXyMsNlIFIPmTUtgb7cg13NlFxyT8sfouLuevoJ3Sf53OCX08nmC0_i5qE2gZmDP1c44Fd4w-K-TGcSrZ_mCMfv8ygfGyWuX-z_w6oybl-DDRw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Yes they are. The reason I asked was After the hurricane in Florida this fall FPL said after the winds go below 35 mph then they will start restoring power:Immediately following the hurricane, once winds drop below 35 miles per hour, FPL will continue restoration and conduct damage assessments with field crews," the utility company said in a written statement.Sep 28, 2022 I didn't know if those standards apply up here or not. I had not noticed many models showing sustained over 35 though. Fingers crossed we do not get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I had not noticed many models showing sustained over 35 though. Fingers crossed we do not get that. Yea seems sustained is more near 20. What’s unusual is that gusts to 45 will last for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Also there’s a ton of water everywhere. Will every pavement become an ice rink tomorrow and not melt for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Also there’s a ton of water everywhere. Will every pavement become an ice rink tomorrow and not melt for days? At first I doubted it, but with snow melt and heavy rain and how fast it’s dropping it’s gonna be a full blown disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 How is that handled? SWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 As midnight approaches it continues to rain moderately. Temps have just spiked up 2.5 degrees in the past 15 minutes from 39.9 to 42.4. They're catching up to the previous HRRR temp forecasts for these hours which were running nearly 5 degrees too high. Looks like a total of 2.19" of liquid for today. That consisted of 0.36" of melted snowfall of 3.4". Then, 1.83" of rain has fallen over the past 11 hours. I actually still have almost total snow cover on the grass, but it's heavily compacted and the grass is poking through. If it doesn't rain too much more and the temps hold around here, I might still have at least patchy snowcover come morning before the arctic frontal snow showers arrive. If a new inch falls it will fill back in the breaks to possibly give me back a solid base and an official white Christmas. It will be fun tracking the crashing temps. This is easily one of the most dramatic arctic frontal passages in over 30 years, especially given how temps are going to crash all day long despite any sunshine we have in the mid-day hours. See you all in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just got back from a flooded basement call. 130am, all the snow is gone, moderate to heavy rain at times. 48 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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