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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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22 minutes ago, TimB said:

It’s official. Three 70 degree days in the same month in winter for the first time ever.

The opposite of what's happening out west. So it's not like the whole country is torching. We are just in a shit pattern due to a absolutely terrible Pacific. 

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15 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

The opposite of what's happening out west. So it's not like the whole country is torching. We are just in a shit pattern due to a absolutely terrible Pacific. 

Yep, century's old records being broken out there as well, just the cold records.  We'll get ours again.  Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years.

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years.

Averages are so mundane.  I'd take a week of climatological norms with a day or two slightly above and below over 2-3 days of above average followed by 36hrs of far below average then 2-3 days of right back above average.

That's winter weather versus a strong fall or spring cold front taking place in the middle of winter.

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51 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Averages are so mundane.  I'd take a week of climatological norms with a day or two slightly above and below over 2-3 days of above average followed by 36hrs of far below average then 2-3 days of right back above average.

That's winter weather versus a strong fall or spring cold front taking place in the middle of winter.

Well sure, but we can't discredit the record cold in December, because it was potent.  Plus, it was the coldest Christmas weekend in decades.

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Probably boring everyone with the climate information, but there's not much more to talk about. But anyways, with the recent warm weather, with 5 days remaining in the month, this is currently the warmest mean high temperature for February on record. Today's high will go down in the books as 49, and the rest of the month looks like 40s and 50s so I suspect this holds.

image.png.fd0a7cfc0dea01f6ec9a4ed83cebeaa9.png

Also, the daily range [difference between high & low temperature] has been 22.5F this month. That is the largest range on record by a significant margin for the month of February. In fact, running this through Excel, I could find only 4 other years at 20+ in the entire threaded record - 3 of which were exactly 20.0F.

2023 22.5

1990 20.5

1906 20.0

1884 20.0

1876 20.0

 

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Well sure, but we can't discredit the record cold in December, because it was potent.  Plus, it was the coldest Christmas weekend in decades.

Oh, I absolutely agree but I kinda wish the MET offices would move to superior techniques like curve fitting, change over time, differential calculus.  Two simplistic "extreme" examples:

1. Person A, born and died at an average age all while living at sea level in Florida, but climbed Mt. Everest twice in their life for funsies.  Person B, born and died at an average age all while living in our region ~1000ft above sea level, never left home.  Who spent more of their life at a higher altitude?

2. Person X can swim half the length of an average sized pool at its maximum depth of 6ft.  Person Y can only hold their breath long enough to swim straight down and touch the bottom of a 12ft pool then swim right back up.  Who spent more time at the deeper depth?

Official MET observations are taken at hourly intervals yet they figure average temperature from only the max and min.  That's like saying we would have had a great winter if we catch up with all of our snow in March even if it melts in two days time.  Extremes are important, outliers are necessary data points, but they can strongly skew averages.  It took 4 days of -14F or more max/min departures in December to make that month come out to only -0.7F below average.

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3 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Yep, century's old records being broken out there as well, just the cold records.  We'll get ours again.  Although, let's not forget the record cold in December, even if it was only one day it was something not seen in over 30 years.

Point me to a century old record that was broken out west. I’m talking the big ones, like monthly temperature records or total seasonal snowfall records like the ones being broken in the east, not some piddly daily record.

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59 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

It's all downhill from here. Enjoy it for 6 hours

37KABty.png

 

March snow.. especially after a season like this one.. Go big or go home! :lol: Probably the best run all season (not saying much) but after a month of only checking models once every other day I've been checking in daily on this one, might have to up that frequency if we actually have a shot at something here. 

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29 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

You guys may hate me for saying this but I have a flight Sunday morning. 20 inches of snow would be no Bueno. How about just a 5-8 event...

We won’t even get that, we’ll get the solution all of the other models are still showing. Nothing.

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Dev team must have gone wild this winter on the GFS because the EPS (totally worth the membership cost after Pivotal Weather integrated it) shows us in the 50s on March 5 and 6 with a total snowfall of maaaaybe 2" from now through 00z March 07.  ...2" of QPF same time frame :underthewx:

I saw this interesting Tweet about the NCAR models showing that the response to the present (ongoing or done?) SSW may be very atypical:  Cold goes where it's been cold and warm stays where it's been warm.  I haven't had a chance to dig into it much but sounds like the NCAR model response was so atypical that it caught attention from several researchers I follow.  Wouldn't surprise me in the least if this winter keeps it different but it would absolutely surprise me if we don't get the common cool Spring that typically happens after late SSWs/vortex reversal.  Final cold air breakup not making it here would make this a warm Spring, fo sho.

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1 hour ago, TimB said:

2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold.

Fun to see, but still a ton of spread. GEFS have a lot of members with a pretty wound up cutter. But hey, 26 inches gets us to almost normal snowfall for the season so I say bring it!

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Fun to see, but still a ton of spread. GEFS have a lot of members with a pretty wound up cutter. But hey, 26 inches gets us to almost normal snowfall for the season so I say bring it!

GEFS mean went down significantly at 18z, so unfortunately it’s only a matter of time before this goes away.

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3 hours ago, TimB said:

2nd time this winter the GFS has depicted Pittsburgh’s largest snowstorm on record. And we know what happened the first time. An Arctic front with a dusting of snow and 3 days of cold.

The trend needed to stop 3 runs ago. Let’s hope we get fringed south until Sunday evening 

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