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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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3 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Agree.  This is a shitty winter, there's really nothing else to it.  It's pretty much March at this point, time to fully accept defeat and hope for a better season next year, but hand wringing and freak outs at this point are almost comical.

Are they? It’s probably going to be 10 months until we get even an advisory level snowfall. Well probably 11, since we all know it doesn’t happen in December anymore.

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2 hours ago, TimB said:

Are they? It’s probably going to be 10 months until we get even an advisory level snowfall. Well probably 11, since we all know it doesn’t happen in December anymore.

Yes, hilarious, because you can't control this, so freaking out over it won't fix anything, plus it's March, so put it to bed, lol.

You conveniently forget December 2020 for snow, but of course you'll probably point out that's it was an anomaly, and ignore that this season may be just that, an anomaly.

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4 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yes, hilarious, because you can't control this, so freaking out over it won't fix anything, plus it's March, so put it to bed, lol.

You conveniently forget December 2020 for snow, but of course you'll probably point out that's it was an anomaly, and ignore that this season may be just that, an anomaly.

All I wanted was one event bigger than our current highest daily total of 2.2”, which we’ve quite literally gotten in every single winter on the record.

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19 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Canadian is West also. It looks like I will be driving north into a rainstorm on Friday. :flood:

Glad I never got to involved in this one, it looked good for a couple days but the GFS being on its own NW was a red flag mainly due to the fact it was showing the storm follow what we've seen all season. 

Now I hope it cuts as far NW as possible, give us a dry slot and maybe another nice day in the 60s.

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16 minutes ago, TimB said:

All I wanted was one event bigger than our current highest daily total of 2.2”, which we’ve quite literally gotten in every single winter on the record.

There's still 2-3 weeks left, wouldn't shock me if we managed to beat that 2.2. Heck, even April would have an outside chance with such a low bar. If we can't get a 6+ event at this point I'm good with futility lol

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25 minutes ago, TimB said:

In a matter of like 2 days, we went from something well south of us to something where the heaviest snowfall might be west of the Mississippi. You can’t make this shit up.

This has been all winter, that's just the pattern and the way the models are handling it.  Hopefully next season is better.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Let's have a few more than one before jumping off a bridge.  One data point is not a trend.  Look at what they're getting out West, it is the opposite of us, does that mean their winters are like that now forever?

Trying to be an optimist... I am hoping for a stormy spring and summer and then maybe next Winter we will get 60 plus inches. It will eventually happen won't it?

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6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

How's the severe risk looking today? I see a tornado watch has been issued for parts of Ohio and other nearby states.

The usual “always a bridesmaid” that our area does best when it comes to most types of weather. Pittsburgh is right at the fringe of the marginal risk. Can’t see how we’re going to achieve much instability as dreary as it is out there.

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1 hour ago, north pgh said:

Trying to be an optimist... I am hoping for a stormy spring and summer and then maybe next Winter we will get 60 plus inches. It will eventually happen won't it?

Well, if LA County can get 6 feet of snow in a week, yeah, I believe we'll have another 60" season easy.  Why is everyone so dramatic all of a sudden, lol?

Also, I am not looking for a stormy Spring or Summer.  I'm hoping for dry and warm to hot, but we'll see.  I think it'll be rainy and cool through both seasons, though.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Well, if LA County can get 6 feet of snow in a week, yeah, I believe we'll have another 60" season easy.  Why is everyone so dramatic all of a sudden, lol?

Also, I am not looking for a stormy Spring or Summer.  I'm hoping for dry and warm to hot, but we'll see.  I think it'll be rainy and cool through both seasons, though.

Missing out on a snowstorm in December or January, you know there will probably be more chances. Missing out on a snowstorm as the calendar flips to spring stings a lot more knowing it may very well be the last chance for a very long time. Especially in a winter where there hasn’t been a single period other than 72 hours around Christmas that even slightly resembled winter.

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48 minutes ago, TimB said:

Pittsburgh is right at the fringe of the marginal risk.

I really think that KPIT Met office and national WPC/SPC teams underestimate severe/extreme storm weather here.  Aug 2021 there wasn't a mention of heavy rainfall risks but it managed to flash flood up here, most rain my neighbors had seen since Ivan.  Oct 2021 they all worried about severe weather in Ohio that would die down before it got here and we wound up with tornados from here down to the WV border.  The hail storms that hit last summer up in Mercer/Lawrence counties were surprise storms.

I think that in the past, the Pittsburgh region did not have severe weather, but I think that has changed and they are constantly surprised.  People are still surprised when they hear that Dixie Alley is a thing because people only think of the great plains when they hear tornado alley.

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14 minutes ago, donyewest said:

I really think that KPIT Met office and national WPC/SPC teams underestimate severe/extreme storm weather here.  Aug 2021 there wasn't a mention of heavy rainfall risks but it managed to flash flood up here, most rain my neighbors had seen since Ivan.  Oct 2021 they all worried about severe weather in Ohio that would die down before it got here and we wound up with tornados from here down to the WV border.  The hail storms that hit last summer up in Mercer/Lawrence counties were surprise storms.

I think that in the past, the Pittsburgh region did not have severe weather, but I think that has changed and they are constantly surprised.  People are still surprised when they hear that Dixie Alley is a thing because people only think of the great plains when they hear tornado alley.

What?!?  I don't think severe weather is a new phenomenon in Pittsburgh, I think our NWS is just super conservative in their forecasts.

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51 minutes ago, TimB said:

Missing out on a snowstorm in December or January, you know there will probably be more chances. Missing out on a snowstorm as the calendar flips to spring stings a lot more knowing it may very well be the last chance for a very long time. Especially in a winter where there hasn’t been a single period other than 72 hours around Christmas that even slightly resembled winter.

I meant the dramatics of assuming that every winter will be exactly like this one from now on.

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1 minute ago, Ahoff said:

What?!?  I don't think severe weather is a new phenomenon in Pittsburgh, I think our NWS is just super conservative in their forecasts.

I think that's the more likely scenario.  I usually find a national discussion on SPC or WPC then hardly see any mention of it locally.

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58 minutes ago, donyewest said:

I think that's the more likely scenario.  I usually find a national discussion on SPC or WPC then hardly see any mention of it locally.

I mean the NWS keeps everything conservative snow forecasts, summer highs, winter lows, severe weather, etc.  They always adjust up until the day and still are sometimes too conservative even when they've been proven wrong.

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Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
722 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

PAZ020-021-029-WVZ001>003-280230-
Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-
Including the cities of Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge,
Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Washington, Canonsburg, Weirton,
Follansbee, Wellsburg, and Wheeling
722 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023

...Gusty Winds Expected This Evening...

Strong wind gusts up to 45 mph out of the west are possible over
the next couple of hours behind the line of showers and
thunderstorms exiting the area. Use extra caution when driving,
especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Gusty winds may
also blow around unsecured objects.

$$

 

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Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 731 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 PAC059-280045- /O.CON.KPBZ.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230228T0045Z/ Greene PA- 731 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY... At 731 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Waynesburg, moving east at 55 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Rogersville and Spraggs. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. This cluster of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Please report severe weather by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSPITTSBURGH. && LAT...LON 3974 8042 3982 8035 3988 8033 3989 8012 3974 8017 TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 261DEG 47KT 3984 8027 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN $$ Rackley
 

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2 hours ago, TimB said:

And so today concludes the warmest Jan-Feb period anyone who posts here has ever experienced in this area. Warmer than 2017. Warmer than 1998.

0FB82E42-E21E-43A5-9627-B8C214FE4147.jpeg.ff27946dd0ffddf79cdce5e56752a395.jpeg

Looks like every threaded climate site in PBZ's warning area set a new monthly mean maximum high temperature record this month. These high temperatures were on par with what was considered normal under the 1961-1990 means in places like Chattanooga, TN and Oklahoma City in February. I just think we have to come to grips with the fact that western Pennsylvania is not a reliably wintry location anymore.

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38 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like every threaded climate site in PBZ's warning area set a new monthly mean maximum high temperature record this month. These high temperatures were on par with what was considered normal under the 1961-1990 means in places like Chattanooga, TN and Oklahoma City in February. I just think we have to come to grips with the fact that western Pennsylvania is not a reliably wintry location anymore.

I’d get raked over the coals for saying something like the bolded, as it really is just one year and Jan-Feb was fine last year and the year before, but then I remember all of the horrific, hellish winter months we’ve had in the last 8 years. December 2015, January 2017, February 2017, February 2018, January 2020, December 2021, January 2023, February 2023. That’s an average of one winter month every year that is so far above normal that it’s remarkable. There is not a single month in that period with as negative a departure as any of the above months are positive.

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