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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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  • Chicago Storm changed the title to Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion
54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

miss south

12z GFS looks decent next week.  

Assuming this track holds relatively closely, we'll have to see about marine influence around Chicago as we get closer.  The airmass aloft is not that chilly... I'd like to see it colder.  If not rain mixed in, then it could be very sloppy/inefficient accumulation.

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Kind of came out of no where, but a nice negatively tilted shortwave and the lift ahead of it will try to product some snow late tonight through Saturday as it lifts through the Ohio Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes. The lift isn't crazy but it's there, and the somewhat steep lapse rates in and above the DGZ may help some briefly more moderate pockets of precip develop. The main issue, especially farther south/east and especially as we head into the afternoon, will be marginal boundary layer temps, but a good shot many from southern MO/northern AR into southern IL, southern/eastern IN, northern/western KY, and a good portion of OH  at least sees flakes out of this late tonight and tomorrow.

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38 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

A normal November has snowfall opportunities. We're just not used to it.

7 minutes ago, Baum said:

True. Best ever, Thanksgiving 1975. And looking forward to an early season winter type week.

To follow up on this...

November snowfall totals in Chicago the past 20 years. As you can see, it has generally been all or nothing, with only a few in between.

2002: 4.7"
2003: T
2004: 5.1"
2005: 1.9"
2006: 0.4"
2007: 0.3"
2008: 0.6"
2009: T
2010: T
2011: T
2012: T
2013: 0.9"
2014: 2.8"
2015: 11.2"
2016: T
2017: 0.1"
2018: 12.7"
2019: 3.7"
2020: 0.7"
2021: T

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12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

To follow up on this...

November snowfall totals in Chicago the past 20 years. As you can see, it has generally been all or nothing, with only a few in between.

2002: 4.7"
2003: T
2004: 5.1"
2005: 1.9"
2006: 0.4"
2007: 0.3"
2008: 0.6"
2009: T
2010: T
2011: T
2012: T
2013: 0.9"
2014: 2.8"
2015: 11.2"
2016: T
2017: 0.1"
2018: 12.7"
2019: 3.7"
2020: 0.7"
2021: T

And to follow up on the follow up...

Below is the list of all years on record in Chicago to feature a November with 4.0"+ total snowfall. As you can see, the following December is usually split potential for above/below normal snowfall, and usually seasonal total snowfall ends up above average.

1891: 6.8"......5.5"......26.8"
1893: 7.5"......12.1".....48.2"
1895: 14.5".....3.4"......52.5"
1896: 4.2"......1.3"......41.2"
1927: 14.9".....10.0".....29.3"
1940: 14.8".....4.1"......49.0"
1941: 5.2"......1.7"......40.5"
1947: 6.2"......6.4"......40.6"
1950: 7.0"......27.1".....60.0"
1951: 14.3".....33.3".....68.3"
1953: 7.6"......5.4"......28.4"
1954: 5.7"......8.2"......44.2"
1955: 5.9"......2.1"......26.2"
1959: 6.6"......10.4".....44.1"
1972: 5.5"......10.3".....66.9"
1974: 5.1"......16.3".....53.7"
1975: 10.8".....11.7".....53.3"
1977: 6.3"......19.2".....64.3"
1978: 7.1"......31.4".....95.3"
1980: 5.1"......9.7"......48.8"
2002: 4.7"......8.0"......42.2"
2004: 5.1"......0.6"......29.0"
2015: 11.2".....4.5"......63.5"
2018: 12.7".....1.4"......44.8"

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11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

3 yrs ago this evening cleared my driveway of 7" of fresh snow. 8.5" on 11-29-11 and 12.5" on 11-22-15 are the biggies during the past 2 decades. 

I liked that 2015 storm, even though the heavier band occurred to my north.  The conditions in the afternoon of the 21st were arguably the most intense I've ever witnessed in the month of November.

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8 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

And to follow up on the follow up...

Below is the list of all years on record in Chicago to feature a November with 4.0"+ total snowfall. As you can see, the following December is usually split potential for above/below normal snowfall, and usually seasonal total snowfall ends up above average.

1891: 6.8"......5.5"......26.8"
1893: 7.5"......12.1".....48.2"
1895: 14.5".....3.4"......52.5"
1896: 4.2"......1.3"......41.2"
1927: 14.9".....10.0".....29.3"
1940: 14.8".....4.1"......49.0"
1941: 5.2"......1.7"......40.5"
1947: 6.2"......6.4"......40.6"
1950: 7.0"......27.1".....60.0"
1951: 14.3".....33.3".....68.3"
1953: 7.6"......5.4"......28.4"
1954: 5.7"......8.2"......44.2"
1955: 5.9"......2.1"......26.2"
1959: 6.6"......10.4".....44.1"
1972: 5.5"......10.3".....66.9"
1974: 5.1"......16.3".....53.7"
1975: 10.8".....11.7".....53.3"
1977: 6.3"......19.2".....64.3"
1978: 7.1"......31.4".....95.3"
1980: 5.1"......9.7"......48.8"
2002: 4.7"......8.0"......42.2"
2004: 5.1"......0.6"......29.0"
2015: 11.2".....4.5"......63.5"
2018: 12.7".....1.4"......44.8"

my high school years rocked.......

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NWS STL laughing at taking that L

 

 folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.

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NWS STL laughing at taking that L
 
 folks in our area are waking up to a winter wonderland this morning, with as much as 6" of snow on the ground. We're just as surprised as many of you are, so we wanted to let you know what happened. Boiling it down: 1) the snow was further north than expected, 2) the snow was much more intense than expected, 3) the warm ground was not enough to overcome the heavy snowfall rates.

Two issues with that… Most guidance did show snow that far north, and most guidance did show the potential for more snow than offices down there were forecasting, was was ranging from no snow up to 0.5”.

On the flip side…There was very little support among guidance for anything really over 3” or so. So nonetheless, that band of 4-8” is still a surprise in the end.

There was actually an event like this, which I believe may have been last winter, down in East-Central Illinois. It also occurred overnight/early morning, and dropped a localized/unexpected area of 6”+ snow.
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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:


Two issues with that… Most guidance did show snow that far north, and most guidance did show the potential for more snow than offices down there were forecasting, was was ranging from no snow up to 0.5”.

On the flip side…There was very little support among guidance for anything really over 3” or so. So nonetheless, that band of 4-8” is still a surprise in the end.

There was actually an event like this, which I believe may have been last winter, down in East-Central Illinois. It also occurred overnight/early morning, and dropped a localized/unexpected area of 6”+ snow.

Yeah I was expecting a dusting to a covering.

 

Woke up to 3-4 inches. Farmington MO got 6.

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