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July 2022 Observations


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 Due to a coastal low/trough and the associated deep Atlantic moisture, I've received 4" since midnight (so all of it counts for July) with 3.5" of that during just midnight-3AM causing significant street flooding. This is the heaviest daily rainfall here since way back on 9/20/21, which wasn't from a tropical cyclone as that was due to converging surface flow off the Gulf and Atlantic (although moisture may have been enhanced by the remnants of Nicholas). 

 The low center, which is getting a bit better organized and now is 30 miles ESE of Tybee Island/ESE of here (see radar image below), is now far enough north to reduce the heavy rain potential here due to not as much Atlantic moisture as earlier. The wettest flow was when the low was further south of our latitude earlier today giving us a SE/direct flow off the ocean. Now the flow is light from the north (land). It remains to be seen whether or not any more significant rain falls here today considering that the low is slowly moving north. The heaviest rainfall accumulation threat/flooding for the rest of today should be NE of here over coastal SC although it wouldn't surprise me if I were to get some short periods of heavy rain in showers.

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 From the recent MCD

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Areas affected...Coastal Lowcountry of Georgia and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011623Z - 012200Z

Summary...Coastal low pressure will bring heavy rain to the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina through this evening. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr will likely train onshore, leading to instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An area of low pressure is clearly evident on the
regional radar mosaic this morning as a closed swirl of
reflectivity just east of Tybee Island, GA. This circulation has
become better organized this morning along an inverted trough, and
is responsible for heavy rainfall exceeding 4 inches that fell
near Chatham, GA overnight.

 

CoastalLow07012022at1723ZGaveMe4InchesThru1PM.thumb.png.c5fef6593dc67e13b182d34fe45a3088.png

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^The aforementioned low now has a 10% chance for tropical development as it moves slowly NE per the 2 PM TWO: (now is Invest 96L and thus this has its own thread in the tropical section)

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022
1. Near the Southeastern US:
Satellite and radar images along with surface observations indicate 
that a low pressure system has formed just off the coast of 
Savannah, Georgia. Surface pressures are high in this region, and 
development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur while it 
drifts northeastward along the southeast U.S. coastline during the 
next day or so.  Regardless of development, this system is 
expected to produce heavy rains, which could cause flash flooding 
across portions of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas through 
tonight and into Saturday.  See products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service forecast 
office for more details.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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For something like the 47th time this spring/summer there is a nice line of storms heading in from the NW that is melting away as it heads our way.  I don't know if it negative feedback from the dry soils or what but it is happenign over and over again.

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4 hours ago, cbmclean said:

For something like the 47th time this spring/summer there is a nice line of storms heading in from the NW that is melting away as it heads our way.  I don't know if it negative feedback from the dry soils or what but it is happenign over and over again.

Right on cue the line collapsed in the east while remaining strong in the west.  Just for fun after the main line faded a nice litle aftershock cell popped up immediately upstream then instanstly collapsed on my doorstrep.

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18 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Right on cue the line collapsed in the east while remaining strong in the west.  Just for fun after the main line faded a nice litle aftershock cell popped up immediately upstream then instanstly collapsed on my doorstrep.

I saw that, I was hoping you’d get that last gasp cell

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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Suspicious???

 

Seems suspicious to me. We’re usually a few ticks warmer than RDU and it peaked here about an hour before that observation. We broke 100 for the first time this year and had our highest heat index since I’ve run my weather station so I think RDUs observation is off but it’s still our hottest day of the year by far 

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The rain is attempting to drive me insane.  After yesterday's rug pull, had a nice cell headed my way which disintegrated at my doorstep and then almost immediately reformed a few miles to the east.  Its infuriating.  

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Missed out on the big totals just east of here but picked up 0.29” from a frisky storm that blew up overhead this afternoon. Broke 100 for the first time this year. 100.1 was our high. Storms were a fine consolation prize after the pain however 

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 From a thunderstorm, I just got my first rain since the big mainly very early morning July 1st 4" rain associated with what later became Colin. So far, totals here today are modest (0.20-0.25" range). But I'll take it after a dry six day period, especially considering that a good portion of that 4" rain likely ran off rather than it saturating. After all, 0.20" is the equivalent of slightly more than one irrigation.

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