Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,181
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Michael Butler
    Newest Member
    Michael Butler
    Joined

Winter 2022-23 Early Speculation


John1122
 Share

Recommended Posts

Last year this one fired up in April. I think the big March snowstorm for most of us may have sated the enthusiasm for a while. The hot weather has me longing for winter and this thread is always one I look forward to just to speculate on better weather days. 

The La Nina watch has me excited, even though it's only around a 59%, chance for early winter La Nina. It would likely be weak and weak Nina is usually good times for the area. Moderate Nina's tend to see the Plateau and west do well, strong is more often mid-state and west. Weak tends to see a weaker SE Ridge and we generally see a good storm track Valley wide. 

The QBO has risen two months in a row now. So it's negative cycle is finally coming to a close it would seem. Usually it rapidly heads positive once it starts. The last time we saw the trend towards positive in May/June was 2015-16. We torched that December but had a cold and snow January that came in around 4-6 degrees BN. February came in right at normal with a really good snow event. So the rising QBO doesn't mean doom for winter. 

Long range models, which are notoriously volatile and inaccurate are showing either torch the whole winter or a relaxation in January towards cold. They are consistently showing the West as being the area most AN though. I'll take that, as we mostly suffer only when the West is BN.  Their AN forecasts would suggest ridgeing in that region. We just don't want stubborn troughing to set up over the West. 

Models are generally showing continued dry weather through winter but BN precip in winter often means colder weather is around and isn't a negative for snowfall. AN precip here usually means big warm storms that just produce a lot of cold rain. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

Starting to look toward the winter and I agree with everything here.  Early peaking La Niña or Lanada looks all but guaranteed for winter. 
 

I see a decent start possible but into 2023 it's going to be hard not to torch. 
 

good news is we are due a nice rebound to El nino for 23-24!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/21/2022 at 4:05 PM, John1122 said:

This wouldn't be bad and looks like a typical weak/mod LA Nina. I'd guess last winter's map would look similar in our area. 

hsPxAx.jpg

 

 

I like it, I think we are also naturally trending warmer in the NW, and scientifically due for a change in the Midwest/Great Lakes to above normal, if not this Winter, next and after. Will be hard to do below average in the same places this Winter though, I think. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

Considering bumping Jan-Feb to +3F for the 60 day time frame.  With the QBO set to be firmly positive by the winter in conjunction with a La Nina and poor PDO state for cooler temps...this winter has some torch potential.  That said, sometimes when things seemed line-up up perfectly for heat or cold, they do they opposite.  So, I remain guarded.  This winter is a tough call - three straight Ninas?   That said, if the Nina is weak enough, I think we still see plenty of cold and plenty of warm - similar swings to last winter.   For DJF, I would say temps will finish AN to well AN.  Areas east of the Plateau should keep there hopes tempered in regards to snow, especially NE TN.   Just not a great set-up at this point.  That said, keep on cooling the Pacific so that the gradients return...and I am good.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

Re-upped my model package this month.   So, here goes.  Temp forecast above looks similar to the Euro seasonal which just came out.  I am not tooting my own horn, I just don' want to have to retype it.  November is warm.  Rest of the seasonals look on target.  Remember. TOTAL crapshoot from this far out.

I will say if the seasonals are correct....we can absolutely live with that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

@John1122, of the third year La Ninas, how many of those winters began early, i.e. December?

Dec 1975 was -3 here but near normal in the Eastern areas, however that was a strong Nina which is really warm overall for everyone except the very far NW forum areas. December 2000 was exceptionally cold.  -10 to -12 from the Plateau and West, -6 to -8 far eastern areas. It was a weak La Nina.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Primary pattern I'm going with persistent SER bigger than what I infer from NOAA. In fact late fall could get really dry again. Not looking like a fall severe wx season; maybe the Midwest.

Secondary pattern should be better. Occasionally those La Nina West troughs will couple with AK ridge and lumber east through the Mid South. A good one sliding east rather than cutting would benefit all. 

Overall I'm AN temps entire forum and BN winter fun east section of the forum. West half could have some winter excitement. At least a clean SER is sunny!

Note that cynicism plays a large role in my forecast until about November. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...

Just read an article about the stratospheric cooling that's happened this year in the Southern Hemisphere. The article noted that cold stratosphere conditions in the Southern Hemisphere as they move into summer usually indicate the opposite in the Northern Hemisphere.

There was a moderate correlation to a -NAO in the winter here as the Southern stratosphere cooled over the Polar regions there. There was also a possible connection to warming/weakened Polar Vortex conditions over the north pole when the stratosphere was colder than normal in the South Pole areas. 

The stratosphere down South is hitting record lows and that's drifting futher South towards the pole as the year is wearing on. 

So possible good news for the winter lovers, of which we mostly seem to be as a group. 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Subsurface in the east ENSO has been cooling lately,not much left there.SOI the last couple weeks is acting like a NINA again.We did good last year here with snow into winter.We also did good in fall severe season if the Aleutian Low gets set up.Ready for winter

I think you guys and west Tennessee might be primed for a third snowy winter in a row, especially with the Nina looking to be in the weak range. The spine of the Apps seems to often be the battle ground in that set up, with potential for big early snows if it behaves anything like past 3rd year Ninas. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I agree with John above. February chart is as classic as it gets! I-40 specials; crap south. Can you hear my dripping cynicism as I type? Chattanooga blanked probably verifies!

Now I also agree with Jax that severe could get going again fall and winter. How about January snow Hoosier Alley with tornadoes Dixie Alley? Well probably more likely Nov-Dec and again in Feb. If that happens in January. Oh wait, it did this year!

PDO is looking quite bearish Southeast. Mid South and of course I-40 can still get it from cutters. HSV to CHA, I'll see you under the grungy meso this winter!

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/24/2022 at 10:18 AM, Carvers Gap said:

I think this winter is much less cut and dry than previous winters.  Maps above look about right.  I tend to lean with John on this.  The QBO in conjunction with a fading La Nina by February gives me pause about the second half of winter.  That said, there might be just enough of a hangover to get us through Feb.  What would be optimal is La Nina to transition quickly to a weak Nino this winter.  That would give us a quick start to winter and then prolong winter due to Nino.  Timing is rarely that perfect.  

Initial thoughts for winter(temps):

September- October:   HOT!  DRY!

November:  BN to seasonal

December: Seasonal

January: Seasonal to above

February:  Much above(unless Nino kicks in early)

Snow:  AN west of the Cumberlands.  Normal for TYS and Chattanooga.  Slightly BN for TRI.  Mountains much BN.

Overall precip:  Crap shoot

Normally, I like to write some preliminary thoughts during June.  In the past, I haven't really changed those ideas as. we have approached winter.  This year is not going to be one of those years!  It will almost certainly have to be modified.  The ENSO is a total crap shoot for winter.  It could easily go to a weak Nino or the dreaded La Nada.  The Nina is on shaky ground.  The QBO in conjunction with a Nada could spell a torch for winter.  That said, I think a winter similar to the past two is likely.  The reason I have TRI and the mountains as BN for snow is that those areas really depend on an upslope/northwest component IN CONJUNCTION w/ coastal storms for snow.  La Nina makes that difficult on both fronts.  We catch just enough ridging over here in NE TN that is causes coastals to track too far inland and it prevents NW flow reaching this area.   But I will say I do think we see some very severe bouts of cold and some long stretches of very warm weather.  Again, similar to last winter, but this is trick because it is highly possible that we will see a transition from Nina to Nino by next April.  I do feel confident in thinking that next summer will be seasonal in terms of temps for July and August.  I think this summer...we bake w a brief respite upcoming for 2-3 weeks.

WARNING:  This is highly likely gonna change.  This may need to be amended a couple of times prior winter.  ENSO was pretty locked-in during the last two winters.  It is not right now.   My confidence in the above might be 40%.

I like this forecast.  Probably the kiss of death, but I am gonna lock this in with no changes.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still seems on track. Chatty will depend on a lucky track. Agree the Mid-South looks better for snow than the true Tennessee Valley.

TRI has that nerve racking taking turns with wind direction between Kingsport and JC. Probably splits a little both ways. Upslope one side. Heartbreak ridge the other.

Clint Eastwood movie reference.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/26/2022 at 10:03 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Courtesy of the MA Winter Thread.  Pour yourself a cup of coffee(or two), this gonna take a bit to read....

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

I was just reading another paper online today about the PV already being disturbed very early on in its maturity and what implications may come down the line later this winter.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...