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Winter 2022-23 Early Speculation


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5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yeah, @John1122 may have some additional analogs as well along that line.  Every once in a while, winter hits and holds during this type of ENSO pattern.

Yeah, there's others I'm sure but, as you said earlier, many times the pattern flips for Winter. As of now IO forcing is supportive for Eastern trough , as wave lengths change we need that forcing to change too as you know ( probably why many times pattern flips for Winter). Even if it doesn't, it's still not always set in stone to flip trough west as other drivers can throw a monkey wrench in that . 

      Hopefully, ECMWF -NAO Forecast verifies. Of course we all know how accurate they are when predicting that. 

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