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Winter 2022-23


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On 7/6/2022 at 2:11 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

hey guys, I would have to agree that either the 2023/24 or 2024/25 winter will end up a big one down here, as well as much of the EC

three consecutive -ENSO events are quite rare. however, a weak/moderate +ENSO returns either one or two years afterwards, and this winter is usually anomalously snowy

some examples include: 2014/15, 2002/03, 1986/87, 1977/78, and 1957/58

here is a composite of these winters and their Februaries:

1236266976_23-24analogsD-F.png.7d1dded09c32a57ca1553125d5171dd7.png1200667875_23-24analogsF.png.22e936bfd6ce15222aa436d453db55de.png

the average snowfall of these winters in Baltimore is 39.9" (!!!)

so, yeah, it's coming. just have to be patient!

I'll take the confidence one level further on this...its going to be 2023-2024 and it will be a moderate modoki....that is my educated hunch. Very good for this sub-forum. Considering that we have not had a bonafide el nino since the 2015-2016 meg-deal, the periodicity dictates that we should see a significant event. Nothing like 2015-2016, but at least moderately strong.

You guys don't want it to remain weak because you get boned by the N steam, however, a moderately strong positive ENSO usually is accompanied by enough of a STJ presence to stack the snows further south into the mid atl. I think we will see that during winter 2023-2024.

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3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll take the confidence one level further on this...its going to be 2023-2024 and it will be a moderate modoki....that is my educated hunch. Very good for this sub-forum. Considering that we have not had a bonafide el nino since the 2015-2016 meg-deal, the periodicity dictates that we should see a significant event. Nothing like 2015-2016, but at least moderately strong.

You guys don't want it to remain weak because you get boned by the N steam, however, a moderately strong positive ENSO usually is accompanied by enough of a STJ presence to stack the snows further south into the mid atl. I think we will see that during winter 2023-2024.

Start the thread!! :D

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On 7/11/2022 at 9:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't disagree with the fun December vibe.

What are your thoughts on 2000-2001 being an analog? I’m seeing a lot talk of that on twitter which I can understand for the 3rd year “triple dip” La Niña and -PDO, not sure what the solar state/cycle was doing at that point. My issue is the QBO, it was going negative into that winter and this year it’s going positive, I see that as a big issue. We also did not have a very strong -IOD as we do now. And we have to account for AGW 22 years later…..

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

What are your thoughts on 2000-2001 being an analog? I’m seeing a lot talk of that on twitter which I can understand for the 3rd year “triple dip” La Niña and -PDO, not sure what the solar state/cycle was doing at that point. My issue is the QBO, it was going negative into that winter and this year it’s going positive. We also did not have a very strong -IOD as we do now. And we have to account for AGW 22 years later…..

The QBO is but one small piece....its not the ultimate determinant. Lot of help the -QBO was last season. :lol:

I feel like the PDO may remain a bit more negative than it was that year, but its not an awful analog for starters.....I haven't really delved in much yet, though.

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8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The QBO is but one small piece....its not the ultimate determinant. Lot of help the -QBO was last season. :lol:

I feel like the PDO may remain a bit more negative than it was that year, but its not an awful analog for starters.....I haven't really delved in much yet, though.

Well yea about the QBO last year lol I guess it helped as much as the low-solar, Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice arguments the last several years

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16 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan-Feb ‘01 was mega torch though, right?

Yea, Dec, 2000 was cold, Jan and Feb torched then winter made a comeback of sorts in March, 2001. I was a young kid then but I remember the “blizzard” that never was early that month that shut NYC down for no reason. All the blizzard hype in the days prior for nothing

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Well yea about the QBO last year lol I guess it helped as much as the low-solar, Siberian snowcover/SAI and arctic sea ice arguments the last several years

I think the sun last year worked against us....we had quite the solar flare last fall, as the solar activity really picked up.....and the SAI, sea ice etc really wasn't very conducive. But considering any single determinant in a vacuum is a great formula for forecasting futility.

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10 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Warm GOM SST 7-10's since 1995(AMO+cycle) for December

XblP6LuI5S.png.99f34d71ae2051c9f3b4efef3dd657ad.png

 

there's my -PNA/El Nino

HkzcpiLWTe.png.a143549d098b74fc499d2590c1a9633f.png

If we register an official el nino by CPC guidelines between Dec and Feb this winter, then I'll tattoo StormchaserChuck! on my rear and post pics.

That said, I wouldn't mind December 2003 or 2019.

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1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yea, Dec, 2000 was cold, Jan and Feb torched then winter made a comeback of sorts in March, 2001. I was a young kid then but I remember the “blizzard” that never was early that month that shut NYC down for no reason. All the blizzard hype in the days prior for nothing

That 3/5/01 storm was the largest on record for my current BY....I'd take it. But yea, very frustrating not far to my south.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If we register an official el nino by CPC guidelines between Dec and Feb this winter, then I'll tattoo stormchaserChuck! on my rear and post pics.

That said, I wouldn't mind December 2003 or 2019.

-1.19 to +1.19 is neutral this Winter as per 500mb pattern. It might look like La Nina in jan and feb,.. I dont know

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

What are your thoughts on 2000-2001 being an analog? I’m seeing a lot talk of that on twitter which I can understand for the 3rd year “triple dip” La Niña and -PDO, not sure what the solar state/cycle was doing at that point. My issue is the QBO, it was going negative into that winter and this year it’s going positive, I see that as a big issue. We also did not have a very strong -IOD as we do now. And we have to account for AGW 22 years later…..

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO

December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC 

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4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO

December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC 

I'll take a 56-57 or 85-86 this year so we can get the kinda year that followed those in 23-24! :D

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14 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO

December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC 

Not a bad start with respect to analogs, at least from a preliminary basis.

I would def. take a repeat of 2012-2013 and especially 2000-2001 in my hood. Even 1956-1957 was good...only terd in the bowl is 1985-1986, but I think there was some bad luck involved there. But sit tight, mid atl...its coming. Probably not this year, but the next.

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a bad start with respect to analogs, at least from a preliminary basis.

I would def. take a repeat of 2012-2013 and especially 2000-2001 in my hood. Even 1956-1957 was good...only terd in the bowl is 1985-1986, but I think there was some bad luck involved there. But sit tight, mid atl...its coming. Probably not this year, but the next.

yeah, totally. very preliminary as of now, pretty much only based on ENSO and not much else

2012-13 was back-loaded and 2000-01 front-loaded, so we should get one wintry month this year. when all is said and done, it should end up near average

looks like Dec/Mar have the most potential by a wide margin as of now with Jan/Feb being the weaker two months

881802351_initialensoanalogsD.PNG.186ed8fd9e0b9c56daef7d1208c2967f.PNG538570312_initialensoanalogsJ.PNG.3dca02badae9a05c56579c216216445a.PNG

32583574_initialensoanalogsF.PNG.7e6ef958ad265403bcd51473663f4ea0.PNG1883719361_initialensoanalogsM.png.55ea8effa70c743131078e23028bdeb0.png

initial enso analogs D-F.PNG

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21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, I'm going with 2012-13, 2000-01, 1956-57, and 1985-86 as analogs based on ENSO

December has the highest chance to be wintry, but this winter looks below average for the MA and near to slightly below average for the NYC metro, as those winters averaged 10" for DC and 24" for NYC 

@40/70 Benchmark Something else to consider is the strong -IOD, it may alter the MJO wave progressions into this winter: 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, totally. very preliminary as of now, pretty much only based on ENSO and not much else

2012-13 was back-loaded and 2000-01 front-loaded, so we should get one wintry month this year. when all is said and done, it should end up near average

looks like Dec/Mar have the most potential by a wide margin as of now with Jan/Feb being the weaker two months

881802351_initialensoanalogsD.PNG.186ed8fd9e0b9c56daef7d1208c2967f.PNG538570312_initialensoanalogsJ.PNG.3dca02badae9a05c56579c216216445a.PNG

32583574_initialensoanalogsF.PNG.7e6ef958ad265403bcd51473663f4ea0.PNG1883719361_initialensoanalogsM.png.55ea8effa70c743131078e23028bdeb0.png

initial enso analogs D-F.PNG

ENSO is always a good starting point.

I agree, early portion looks better and mid winter worse relative to last season.

One point, though....2000-2001 wasn't front loaded, at least up here....it was pretty relentless activity, with a relative burst early and late. March was actually the most furious stretch.

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4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@40/70 Benchmark Something else to consider is the strong -IOD, it may alter the MJO wave progressions into this winter: 

 

 

I need to look into the IOD...its admittedly a hole in my knowledge base. I may research and add a write up about it this season, since its a repeat la nina and I don't have much work to do surrounding ENSO.

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks like its essentially the west PAC cousin of ENSO....largely modulated by Walker Cycle, as well?

May be interesting to see if IOD phase is correlated to whether a given ENSO event is modoki or canonical....I will look into that this season.

Now this is just a wild probably uneducated question: Is there a such thing as a permanent enso state? Like is it possible for things to get "stuck"? Lol

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