Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,125
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    laikakat
    Newest Member
    laikakat
    Joined

April Medium/Long Range Discussion


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

Dang it all, I tell ya...

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cooling-warm-cold-season-forecast-fa/

Top line:

"La Nina has defied its breakdown in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Cold anomalies are for now stable, extending their weather influence into the Summer season. Changing patterns in the tropics are also hinting at a possible La Nina influence for the cold season of 2022/2023."

Man that's a gut punch...mercy. I mean I guess there's a chance it weakens during the winter, but who the heck knows?

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm tryin' not to doom next winter already, but everytime I look up ENSO everything says "La Nina restrengthening" and "triple dip la nina" and has la nina year analogs...not encouraging in the least. One thing last winter taught me is that they all behave in a similar msnner--last winter went just as the other la ninas: nickle and dime, coastal scrapers that only hit thr beaches, and too much NS interference...same. dang. Thing. (Yes I know, 2000, 2006...but we ain't had anything good happen in one since that fluke in 2006.) And here we are again. This is terrible...life is to short to be losing so many winters in an 8-year span. How long we gotta wait? This is bad even by our standards. Awful.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm tryin' not to doom next winter already, but everytime I look up ENSO everything says "La Nina restrengthening" and "triple dip la nina" and has la nina year analogs...not encouraging in the least. One thing last winter taught me is that they all behave in a similar msnner--last winter went just as the other la ninas: nickle and dime, coastal scrapers that only hit thr beaches, and too much NS interference...same. dang. Thing. (Yes I know, 2000, 2006...but we ain't had anything good happen in one since that fluke in 2006.) And here we are again. This is terrible...life is to short to be losing so many winters in an 8-year span. How long we gotta wait? This is bad even by our standards. Awful.

You don’t have to wait. Get in your car and point it north.

BTW, you should start the winter 22-23 thread now. It would piss Ji off royally.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm tryin' not to doom next winter already, but everytime I look up ENSO everything says "La Nina restrengthening" and "triple dip la nina" and has la nina year analogs...not encouraging in the least. One thing last winter taught me is that they all behave in a similar msnner--last winter went just as the other la ninas: nickle and dime, coastal scrapers that only hit thr beaches, and too much NS interference...same. dang. Thing. (Yes I know, 2000, 2006...but we ain't had anything good happen in one since that fluke in 2006.) And here we are again. This is terrible...life is to short to be losing so many winters in an 8-year span. How long we gotta wait? This is bad even by our standards. Awful.

Way too early to be worrying about next winter.

To many variables and randomness.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I kinda like Ninas lately. <3

The past two winters here haven’t been too bad. This one was kinda bad in that Dec and Feb got left out, but we’ve had worse. Last winter was good here. Two years ago was horrible. And it was a warm neutral lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You don’t have to wait. Get in your car and point it north.

BTW, you should start the winter 22-23 thread now. It would piss Ji off royally.

Nah I ain't startin' it for the same reason I didn't last year: Just in case I'm wrong, lol Now if I had last year I woulda won that gamble!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Nah I ain't startin' it for the same reason I didn't last year: Just in case I'm wrong, lol Now if I had last year I woulda won that gamble!

Why are you upsetting yourself in April over something that may or may not happen next year in which you have absolutely no control over? 
 

Also, I posted data a few months ago that showed the Nina hate is over blown. Yes Nina’s are worse than the avg. But that’s because modoki ninos skew the mean upward. In the last 40 years Nina’s are actually no worse (and actually slightly better) than any enso phase other than modoki Nino.  Truth is only modoki ninos give us a good chance of an above avg snow season. EVERY other year (which is like 90% of them) gives us equally likely chances of a below avg snow season. 
 

In summary about 1-2 times a decade we get a modoki Nino and those are almost always big snow years. The other 8-9 years are mostly below avg with every so often one lucky year where some other enso phase year flukes into an above avg snow season. Basically just expect below avg snow every year then be really happy the 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and above avg. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@Maestrobjwa in the last 50 years...

Years with above normal snowfall at BWI by decade

2010s: 4

2000s: 2

1990s: 2

1980s: 3

1970s: 3

Avg years per decade above avg snowfall = 2.8

There is a 73% of below normal snowfall in any given individual year just based on random chance.  But the truth is we have about a 75% chance of above avg snow if it is either a modoki or a moderate to strong nino year.  And all other years including non modoki weak nino's we have about a 15% chance of above normal and 85% chance of below normal snowfall.  That's our climo.  Set your expectations accordingly.  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm tryin' not to doom next winter already, but everytime I look up ENSO everything says "La Nina restrengthening" and "triple dip la nina" and has la nina year analogs...not encouraging in the least. One thing last winter taught me is that they all behave in a similar msnner--last winter went just as the other la ninas: nickle and dime, coastal scrapers that only hit thr beaches, and too much NS interference...same. dang. Thing. (Yes I know, 2000, 2006...but we ain't had anything good happen in one since that fluke in 2006.) And here we are again. This is terrible...life is to short to be losing so many winters in an 8-year span. How long we gotta wait? This is bad even by our standards. Awful.

We were close, parts of the region even had a decent year. The Enso was not really the problem as @psuhoffman pointed out, the pacific actually helped us for once we just could not get -NAO. If we had some Atlantic side help then we would most likely be singing the praises of last winter. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...