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Saturday, March 26, 2022 Convective Grauple/Small Hail/gusty Showers


weatherwiz
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Consider this the spring training of severe weather season. These early spring convective setups are good training tools for when real severe season arrives. 

A vigorous cold pool aloft characterized by temperatures as cold as -35°C to -36°C at the core is set to traverse southern New England during peak heating hours:

image.thumb.png.1c5f8cd598b525a0014ca83b6f9badf1.png

 

This feature will be associated with mid-level lapse rates potentially exceeding 8 C/KM which should help aid in upwards of several hundred J/KG of SBCAPE, despite cool surface temperatures. Wind shear will be supportive of organized updrafts. While moisture availability will not be very abundant, the combination of very steep mid-level lapse rates, adequate wind shear, and modest instability should support the development of scattered-to-numerous showers by early afternoon. Given degree of cold air aloft and potential for some mid-level rotation, grauple or small hail will be likely with the stronger updrafts. Gusty winds are likely as well. Activity will rapidly diminish towards evening as the cold pool exists.

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Hope we get something.. many many years ago can't remember the year but I remember we had small hail from one of these..  I happened to look up and saw a small area of clouds above me was spinning pretty rapidly lasted about a minute but never saw a funnel or anything.. any idea what would cause that?

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Gonna have to watch for very intense localized snow squalls too into Saturday night....esp high terrain. The lapse rates are crazy insane for a cold season event.

 

This is the ORH sounding at 03z Saturday evening

image.png.60d96a61bdcbd1db762b0b08f70797d2.png

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for very intense localized snow squalls too into Saturday night....esp high terrain. The lapse rates are crazy insane for a cold season event.

 

This is the ORH sounding at 03z Saturday evening

image.png.60d96a61bdcbd1db762b0b08f70797d2.png

Holy crap...full out saturation to the tropopause. There are some signals for a line of snow squalls to organize within eastern NY and moves across Mass during the evening

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5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy crap...full out saturation to the tropopause. There are some signals for a line of snow squalls to organize within eastern NY and moves across Mass during the evening

Yeah... TTs spike above 60 for a time. Definitely has a squall look for the higher elevations.

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah... TTs spike above 60 for a time. Definitely has a squall look for the higher elevations.

Yeah that's pretty impressive...don't usually see TT values that high around here. This is one of the more impressive cold pools I think I've seen. 

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22 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Hope we get something.. many many years ago can't remember the year but I remember we had small hail from one of these..  I happened to look up and saw a small area of clouds above me was spinning pretty rapidly lasted about a minute but never saw a funnel or anything.. any idea what would cause that?

I believe that was in 2002.

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Decent look for Saturday. Some hail/graupel plus a change to snow in the hills. 

GFS has TTs spiking to 64 around here which is about as high as you'll see... and the instability doesn't just peak for an hour and abate... it's there for a few hours. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Decent look for Saturday. Some hail/graupel plus a change to snow in the hills. 

GFS has TTs spiking to 64 around here which is about as high as you'll see... and the instability doesn't just peak for an hour and abate... it's there for a few hours. 

Saw that. Omega thru the roof right across the D zone

Screenshot_20220325-153418_Chrome.jpg

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1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Decent look for Saturday. Some hail/graupel plus a change to snow in the hills. 

GFS has TTs spiking to 64 around here which is about as high as you'll see... and the instability doesn't just peak for an hour and abate... it's there for a few hours. 

Wow...yeah just saw that on bufkit. I don't think I've ever really seen TT's above like 56-58 here before.

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16 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Wow...yeah just saw that on bufkit. I don't think I've ever really seen TT's above like 56-58 here before.

We had TTs around 60 in the 1/28/10 WINDEX event. The main reason it was so prolific. You had saturation up higher than 500mb. Similar look today except we might not have quite as much lift focused along one area…but the higher lapse rates in the low levels can make up for some of that. 
 

Id expect any potent storms or squalls to be frozen precip whether it’s graupel/hail or just flipping to straight snow in the higher terrain. 

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had TTs around 60 in the 1/28/10 WINDEX event. The main reason it was so prolific. You had saturation up higher than 500mb. Similar look today except we might not have quite as much lift focused along one area…but the higher lapse rates in the low levels can make up for some of that. 
 

Id expect any potent storms or squalls to be frozen precip whether it’s graupel/hail or just flipping to straight snow in the higher terrain. 

Ahhh yes now I remember that. That was something else. 

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