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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks, I’ll take my chances with a moisture laden storm coming up from the south in mid January with bitter cold the day before the storm. We will see how it plays out.

Also, side note, nice Sixers win tonight in Miami!

They are 8 games over .500 on the season. They are 2-8 when I'm in the building. :(

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21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks, I’ll take my chances with a moisture laden storm coming up from the south in mid January with bitter cold the day before the storm. We will see how it plays out.

Also, side note, nice Sixers win tonight in Miami!

I looked 3 times and pivotal shows mdt at less than 3" kuch on 0Z gfs.  So many map issues recently.  Maybe sleet issues?

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I can't believe how consistent many of the models have been for me / Cumberland County.  Very close to the 6" mark (in the middle of the county) with a little less to the east and a little more to the west.  All it will take is 3 hours of 2"/hr snow for me to hit my target!  :weenie:

Meanwhile I bottomed out here about 30 minutes ago at 10.9 degrees and for the moment it has reversed and I'm up to 11.7.  Really great radiational cooling nights are always like this.  The temps go down a few degrees, then stop, then go up a little bit, then stop, then start dropping again to a lower reading.  The sky looked great tonight with the calm and crisp conditions along with almost a full moon directly up over my head.

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2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera.  For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch.

After reviewing again it is weird in that east of the Susq 10:1 gives higher amounts while west of the Susq it's Kuchera that gives higher amounts.

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6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera.  For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch.

I tried both.  It looks nothing like the map blizz posted.  It does show the tongue of heavy snow down into Cumberland.  Shows mdt and training at 2, 2.5" 

 

Screenshot_20220115-234710.png

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I just called some friends in on this and it suspected that wxbell is including sleet due to changeover algorithm issues.  I am not sold on that as it could be a pivotal issues but either way we do have two very different outputs.  Obviously TT cannot be used.  Either wxbell or pivotal is having an issue with the changeover.   

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just called some friends in on this and it suspected that wxbell is including sleet due to changeover algorithm issues.  I am not sold on that as it could be a pivotal issues but either way we do have two very different outputs.  Obviously TT cannot be used.  Either wxbell or pivotal is having an issue with the changeover.   

I would bet Pivotal is not so good.

You get what you pay for….

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would bet Pivotal is not so good.

You get what you pay for….

For wxbell to be right it would have to be over 1" an hour as mdt only has snow for about 4 hours per the research done.  That was why the assumption was made that sleet was included. Its hours 22-25 at mdt.  Flipped before hour 26.  Could be a thump and be right.  But either way, drastic differences between the maps.  This may be a cause of some past confusion, who knows.

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