Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 18z HRRR was nice as @Bubbler86 said for the LSV for the front end thump of snow. Here is the snow map as of midnight tomorrow in the LSV when the mixing is underway. It echoes my point from this morning that the Warning criteria snow could already be on the ground before the snow changes to mix by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 well if its worth any thing forecast high was 22. I didnt see it peg past 18 Im right near the airport too. forecast low went down 2 more degrees from 14 to 12 Ive seen some impressive cad before but if this does truly goes that far west I dunno id rather just be fry slotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 19 for the high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: 19 for the high today. 22 but down to 19 now. Quite cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ruin said: well if its worth any thing forecast high was 22. I didnt see it peg past 18 Im right near the airport too. forecast low went down 2 more degrees from 14 to 12 Ive seen some impressive cad before but if this does truly goes that far west I dunno id rather just be fry slotted My problem with hoping for cad is if the coastal/right low is dominant early. Cad does not work so well with warm surges coming from the east or south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Damn lol advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 On mobile but Rgem looks fairly pedestrian for lsv and local counties around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: In my experience growing up in SE Huntingdon county and living in the Cumberland Valley and HBG metro, my opinion is that they have the same weather due to being within valleys. Even with ridges (Jack's/Neelyton/Fannettsburg/Kittatiny/Blue mountains) separating the Shade Gaps and Chambersburgs of the world, the valleys generally share the weather as Franklin/Adams/Cumberland/Dauphin counties. As a result, I would understand breaking Fulton/Huntingdon/Mifflin/Juniata counties up into "ridges" and "not ridges" the same way the Pittsburgh office does Fayette and Westmoreland Ridges. Those low-lying areas will likely have similar results to the LSV. So yeah, I would take that green line of yours and shift it just a tad left and tell the ridge denizens to expect worse lol Haha yea there are some large valleys in that region and that’s where most of the population resides too. Although on the other hand, this is the general area I expect the potential stripe of freezing rain that’s more than just a glaze to a tenth. I”m on board with their forecast numberwise (they put a new map out) and a bit of a reduction in accums. I just think the overall high storm impact and still a good bit of overall model support for 6”+ justified a warning for some more of the central counties. Gotta draw the line somewhere I guess. I still expect to get to 6” in AOO/UNV with the amount of mixing dictating the top end potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 2-4" which I'd take Just looked on the PC. It transfers to the right side low quite early...which is bad in this case since that low seems intent on going up through central PA. Lots of sleet for the LSV. 6-9 hours worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Dt last call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Dt last call LOL. That is a really bad map considering that NWS is expecting 12-18 in Buf and he predicts 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Dt last call That is a lot more reasonable both for snow predictions and our eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Im rooting for the Euro evolution..strong further north primary. And our friend the HRRR. Usually we root for the primary to give in but now when the secondary has its eyes on the UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Im rooting for the Euro evolution..strong further north primary. This was late 80s or early 90s we had almost 2 inchs of sleet we ate a meal at the state restaurant. we all thought it was snow till we went out and heard it. tho honestly it wasnt that bad to drive or walk in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Not sure how Tolleris is resolving the fact that the NW edge outside his sleet line is where the totals should ramp up - yet that’s where he has the totals drop off. Probably the single most important issue in terms of where big totals wind up. He tries to forecast for a wide area, and doesn’t put diligence into those areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: LOL. That is a really bad map considering that NWS is expecting 12-18 in Buf and he predicts 3-6. I wonder if the plows in Buffalo can handle real snow vs the fake snow they usually get? Buffalo plow driver: "What is this 8-1 stuff"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Dt last call I like his 6 inch line running right near Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 So took doggo for a walk and noticed cloud cover over head mostly cloudy about %80?? what is this from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 GFS also with an early transfer unfortunately. Biggest change this run is talking the SLP up into Western PA so dry slot takes over more of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 What a mess lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS also with an early transfer unfortunately. Biggest change this run is talking the SLP up into Western PA so dry slot takes over more of PA. That map looks like what I think will fall in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: One of the infamous 1994 storms laid down 6 inches of heavy sleet here . It was incredibly loud for hours and hours . I was really young but I remember a storm that did that here in Pittsburgh too. I have no clue when it was, but it sleeted for HOURS and I have never seen anything like it again. At the end it switched to extremely heavy snow. I just remember it because it was the best sled riding I ever remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That map looks like what I think will fall in the LSV. GFS gets you near 50 early Monday AM. A/C ready to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Backing in here It’s a slow mover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS gets you near 50 early Monday AM. A/C ready to go? If it has that then the whole run needs tossed. No way anyone gets close to 50 on Monday around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: If it has that then the whole run needs tossed. No way anyone gets close to 50 on Monday around here. It does have that and its due to the strong SE fetch with the low over Atomix. But it is in the middle of the night. 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS gets you near 50 early Monday AM. A/C ready to go? LOL. Not sure if that part verifies but if it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: LOL. Not sure if that part verifies but if it does... If the low is over Clearfield, there will be some very mild temps in S/E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 CBS 21in Harrisburg is saying 2-4 snow and the event is over by midnight Sunday night. So many different forecast solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 Note, I said near 50. Upper 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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